Ah, I understand. I was looking at the point when Ukrainians will have to foot their own bill for defence as they're proposing to be neutral. Although they could get loans for everything and their Putinese, those do come with strings attached or cross trade agreements. I would think that Ukraine would be more wanting to keep their independence without being indebted to US/EU in the longer term.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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Ah, I understand. I was looking at the point when Ukrainians will have to foot their own bill for defence as they're proposing to be neutral. Although they could get loans for everything and their Putinese, those do come with strings attached or cross trade agreements. I would think that Ukraine would be more wanting to keep their independence without being indebted to US/EU in the longer term.
Suppose it depends how you define it really as one could easily go all the way back to 1945 to a rather similar conflict over ideology that hasn't really ceased at all.
Additionally with the clearly state-backed hacks and thefts which have intruded upon Western business as well as infrastructure (NHS being an example as well as other state-controlled entities across the West) could also effectively be acts of war that likely resulted in similar responses on the state which perpetrated it.
To be fair they where pretty clear at the time that they weren't declaring a ceasefire anywhere.
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I found the Horton one on YouTube too in the end, some interesting points, a lot of hyperbole and some things that even he admits he claims are true but has no evidence to support, but like he makes the point that Trump ripped up INF and clear skies treaties, Putin asked Biden to reinstate them and Biden refused, so yeah that doesn't really make sense as surely ripping them up was bad so reinstating them shouldn't have been a big issue. I'm not entirely sure that would have prevented Putin invading Ukraine though.
To be honest yes the US have done some deeply dodgy stuff in other countries too over the years.
Whilst I understand some of his points about Putin, I'm not sure I entirely agree with some of his conclusions that they are reasonable either.
And Horton says the Crimea referendum was ratified by Germany and it was accurate, but I can't find anything to support this and plenty of evidence the Crimea referendum was rigged by Russia, so...
And I'm not sure any of what he says justifies indescriminate bombing and deliberate starvation of a civilian population. There might have been things the US/Ukraine could have done to prevent this war from happening, but now we're all in it I don't think either side is going to take those same steps and it would be enough for the other side to back down.
But I certainly understand his assertion that "the US wanted this war" because they do seem to have knowingly provoked it in a lot of ways, not saying I 100% agree, but I understand his line of thinking.
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If the security guarantee doesn't have a military component then it's completely pointless. Even if it does I'm not sure I'd want or trust Germany to actually carry through with it.
Not sure if this has been posted but an interesting viewpoint. Going to ruffle some feathers with his take on Putin not being mad and that this only happened because Biden is in charge.
Made some good points on why sanctions are pointless and believes that Putin is going to grab as much as possible before 2024 (next american election). Some interesting history lessons in there but his point is that we need to go head to head with Putin to force him to stop.
Good video I liked his points on Georgia war and in terms of how as he says Putin wont do a thing (using nukes) if you actually take action.
Appeasing a man like this is not going to stop him neither are sanctions as he says why isnt there a full on embargo over oil etc? as sanctions are clearly not stopping him right now.
I said it in week one of this war on this forum we shouldnt back down.
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Congress not Trump sent weapons to Ukraine. Trump famously held up those weapons for political blackmail and got impeached for it.
Or there is another reading of that - by not supplying Ukraine and generally looking weak on the global stage it encourages Russia to make a move and make the first move - there are a few old "war hawks" in the Democrats who still exert influence and Biden has tended to lean that way through much of his career.
(I'm not saying that is a right interpretation but there are several possible ways to read it).
Assuming a conflict was inevitable after much of the Eastern Bloc shifted westward then lamentably is it not better that it's restricted mostly to Russia's borders than say somewhere like Serbia?
Putin must be rather irritated that this fight is for the most part on our terms, though I'm sure he'll continue to increase their presence in the Balkans now that the gloves are off and we'd ought to be prepared for it.
The reporter Julia Ioffe has said several times Russia used chemical weapons, but to be honest I don't know much about the war in Syria I've deliberately avoided reading anything about it.
'Ukraine's Defence Ministry says that Russia has moved 2,000 of its troops from Georgia'
https://kyivindependent.com/uncateg...ps-from-occupied-parts-of-georgia-to-ukraine/
It certainly seems like their trying to grab more land in the East, if they have fortified their positions it will be a blood bath trying to get them out.
Would Ukraine be able to push up to Belgorod (you take our we take yours scenario) and be able to take that in turn forcing maybe forces from the east away?
What realistic plans have Ukraine got right now in terms of offensives?
What realistic plans have Ukraine got right now in terms of offensives?
Depends who you listen to, though most experts seem to think that Ukraine gaining any serious offensive momentum is next to impossible from purely a numbers perspective.
Scholz apparently saying that Putin will continue to allow gas payments to be made in Euros next month. Gazprom Bank will then covert to Rubles.
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Soldato
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They said they did and appeared to, but subsequently there were confirmed reports of chemical weapons use in Syria, on the rebels, so either the rebels gassed themselves or ...
Not seen this before: https://www.flightradar24.com/NATO01/2b531371
E3A sentry circling in the middle of the north sea.
E3A sentry circling in the middle of the north sea.
AFAIK never been proved either way but one of the events was analysed in detail, there was a long PDF linked in the appropriate thread, with the conclusion that it would have been difficult for the rebels to stage the attack given what evidence was verifiable.
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One of Ukraine's biggest advantages right now is home turf and the Russians lack of willingness - if you start pushing IN to Russia that is flipped as all of a sudden Russians would almost definitely be volunteering to defend Russia.
Seen the Poseidons do similar at times - though they usually don't show up properly on ADSB and/or turn off transponder once in the mission area.
Last time I saw them doing that with AWACS on station from what I could gather, though an assumption on my part, NATO was moving nukes out of Germany for some reason under heavy escort.
EDIT: Russian strategic bomber net has been very active last couple of hours - possibly they've been doing patrol flights into NATO air space in the region. (Though I've seen no QRA activation but not really been looking for it).
Very faint voice on 4372KHz sounds like short form messages being sent and occasional data/morse traffic on 8090KHz still so they are probably still active.
EDIT2: Actually might be interference from Russian navy broadcasts on a nearby frequency.
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