Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[StriderX]

I think this quote is going to have aged badly in under 24 hours.

The money will be used to buy roubles prior to them being used to purchase a commodity. Anyone who wants the commodity needs roubles, therefore they increase in scarcity and thus value, undoing the damage done by the sanctions imposed on Russia. The EU really doesn't have a choice, they aren't prepared, Germany having to pause their economy indefinitely would at least initiate a massive recession if not an out right depression. Fun times!

Also, you have to laugh at the utter hypocrisy of various EU country ministers saying "they cant do that, we have contracts", having just undermined the value of contracts through their unilateral sanctions

I doubt they actually think the contracts meant anything considering the circumstances, they're just making historical note of Russia's untrustworthiness (not that we need any help in that regard). Perhaps it can be seen as hypocrisy but the situation necessitates a shift away from the last thirty years of obsequious loyalty to a system that has clearly failed to produce a reasonable government in Russia or enough of a bulwark for Europe against American hegemony.

Now whilst I think Germany's Ostpolitik was a mistake and they're going to have to deal with the consequences of it, I'm not sure it's wise to make light of it.

 

[Washout]

I reckon the Russians will be offering discounts for cash at this rate. I suppose we can't expect countries that have heavy reliance on Russian gas to just have the taps turned off. That'll hurt Europe more than Russia. So short term they may get away with it. However, every country does seem to be making concerted efforts to reduce or flat out remove the reliance so long term this will hit Russia fairly hard. Combined with all the other sanctions it doesn't look good for them.

But then, I'm no economist so we'll see what they think!

 

[Mr Jack]

He won't do it. He needs the money.

Exactly. Oil he may be able to shift elsewhere, but gas needs infrastructure he doesn't have. Russia needs to sell the gas more than Germany (or the other European countries) need it and - I think is key - the petrodollars are all flowing to Putin and his cronies. It's not just the Russian economy that is dependent on it, it's actually the people making the choices.

 

[KompuKare]

I reckon the Russians will be offering discounts for cash at this rate. I suppose we can't expect countries that have heavy reliance on Russian gas to just have the taps turned off. That'll hurt Europe more than Russia. So short term they may get away with it. However, every country does seem to be making concerted efforts to reduce or flat out remove the reliance so long term this will hit Russia fairly hard. Combined with all the other sanctions it doesn't look good for them.

But then, I'm no economist so we'll see what they think!

Now I would hope the long-term consequence is far more energy security, self-sufficiency, efficiently, and renewables, but the other fossil fuel economies do not want that so OPEC are busy trying to increase their extraction. Which is what they've successfully done any previous time when higher prices threatened them by making alternatives more viable and urgent, and have (correctly) concluded that goldfish electorates and politicians are not going to any long term planning to wean themselves off oil and gas.

 

[Blackjack Davy]

The amount of expulsions of russians for spying or "activities incompatible with theiir status" from embassies all over europe from ireland to poland is alarming it seems they're really stepping up disruptive activities its also reported in the far north of Norway which is a Nato member theres a lot of activity of russian spies and people spreading disinformation about ukraine and generally stirring things up amongst the sizable russian population there against the Norwegian govt. Russia really is becoming a major nuisance (its about time we too started hacking russian websites in same way they are (NATO sites especially lately) and I don't just mean illegal hacking groups but proper covert activity)

 

[StriderX]

I wonder if the Russian LNG ships will have a few inconvenient accidents over the next year?

 

[Turn]

*Pentagon Correspondent Tweets: There Are No Indications at This Time That Russian Is Preparing to Use Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine — Senior US Defense Official.
https://twitter.com/CarlaBabbVOA/status/1509564187625893892

*IEA’s Birol: Russia Asking for Payments in Rubles Is a Breach in Contract.

*Russia to Live Through Highest Inflation Since 1999
(Reuters) - Consumer inflation in Russia in 2022 is expected to accelerate to its highest since 1999, while the economy will stage its deepest contraction since 2009 as a result of sweeping Western sanctions, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-live-through-highest-inflation-since-1999-2022-03-31/

 

[steve45]

*UK Defence Minister: Additional Equipment Heading to Ukraine Would Include Longer-Range Artillery and Heavier Anti-Aircraft Weaponry.

Will be interesting to know where they are plucking these from, we've barely got enough for our forces...

Maybe we still hold Rapier systems in storage since the switch over to skysabre recently? However, surely that would require significant training burdon that would need to be done out of country?
As for Arty? Very much doubt they'll be receiving AS90 or GLMRS, which leaves L118 Light Gun? We'd then also have to again supply training, as far as I'm aware they dont use 105mm?

 

[Blackjack Davy]

western stuff probably expensive. I hear that the UK are one of the biggest arms dealers in the world lol

NLAW's are effective they've essentially achieved cult status in Ukraine the trouble is they're running out of them but so is the UK govt they're stating they don't have many left such is the rate they're getting through them so ukraine may have to fall back on other things like javelins which weigh twice as much and aren't nearly as good

 

[NickK]

I wonder if the Russian LNG ships will have a few inconvenient accidents over the next year?

I suspect that they will be able to obtain parts in foreign ship yards as a general observation for Russian hardware issues.

I get your point that either it has a small accident somewhere. The same can be said for US LNG transport to the EU etc.

 

[PlacidCasual]

Seems ironic to claim blackmail against Russia for demanding payment in Roubles if we (The West) have sanctioned Russia so heavily financially. It's a consequence of our chosen actions we shouldn't whine about it. We chose to do a thing that affected them and it had consequences. Really the shame is we (the West) weren't doing more like arming and training the Ukraine these last 7 years so that the invasion was never seen as a credible option.

 

[steve45]

Really the shame is we (the West) weren't doing more like arming and training the Ukraine these last 7 years so that the invasion was never seen as a credible option.

Uhhh.... WE WERE! Look up Operation Orbital, we have spent the last 6-7 years doing just that. Ukraines forces have been transformed, Its part of the reason why they have been able to put up such a strong resistance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Orbital

Thats just our contribution. The Yanks and other countries were also doing the same.

 

[Deleted User 298457]

Really the shame is we (the West) weren't doing more like arming and training the Ukraine these last 7 years so that the invasion was never seen as a credible option.

Can't tell if sarcasm...

 

[Blackjack Davy]

The worse thing is that we appear to already be loosing interest. Broadcasters are reporting less views and clicks on related stories, Johnson already going back to lambasting Labour over 'white flag' waving allegations, sanctions momentum is lessening and I see plenty of people talking about how Ukraine should just seed territory and get on with it. Horribly depressing.

Really thats the media's fault they've lost interest its still blanket coverage on CNN for instance, over here they've gone back to their intensely myopic obsession with Partygate again - though to be fair thats also Labour's fault for having nothing else worth discussing other than partisan politics (war in ukraine, rising covid cases? Hello?)

 

[PlacidCasual]

I agree we the UK were doing training, I literally mean, I wish we the West in general had done more of it. It seems to have worked really well, it's a shame we didn't commit even further. No sarcasm, I wish we had done a greater amount than the amount we already did that was so effective.

 

[Hades]

Really the shame is we (the West) weren't doing more like arming and training the Ukraine these last 7 years so that the invasion was never seen as a credible option.

It's partly because the UK were training and arming Ukraine that they have been able to put up such a fight (not trying to take anything away from the bravery and fighting ability of the Ukranians, which has been amazing).

 

[NickK]

Will be interesting to know where they are plucking these from, we've barely got enough for our forces...

Maybe we still hold Rapier systems in storage since the switch over to skysabre recently? However, surely that would require significant training burdon that would need to be done out of country?
As for Arty? Very much doubt they'll be receiving AS90 or GLMRS, which leaves L118 Light Gun? We'd then also have to again supply training, as far as I'm aware they dont use 105mm?

The issue with UK/EU weapons systems is they need UK/EU logistics and consumables as you've pointed out. Most NATO go with 155 or 105mm whereas Russians go with 152mm.. just to mess up the compatibility.

 

[BongoHunter]

Will be interesting to know where they are plucking these from, we've barely got enough for our forces...

Maybe we still hold Rapier systems in storage since the switch over to skysabre recently? However, surely that would require significant training burdon that would need to be done out of country?
As for Arty? Very much doubt they'll be receiving AS90 or GLMRS, which leaves L118 Light Gun? We'd then also have to again supply training, as far as I'm aware they dont use 105mm?

We have a lot of stuff in storage that's not frontline any more - but I don't see any of that being easy to train their forces on. Would be better to buy ex soviet era stuff from Israel or someone else for the artillery. For anti air we could probably draw down on Nato stocks in the short term (but again there's a training issue).

 

[NickK]

We have a lot of stuff in storage that's not frontline any more - but I don't see any of that being easy to train their forces on. Would be better to buy ex soviet era stuff from Israel or someone else for the artillery. For anti air we could probably draw down on Nato stocks in the short term (but again there's a trading issue).

There's also a draw down but don't weaken a response or repulse should Putin's forces decide to go full tonto.

It seems that Putin is more interested in going back to his routes and using covert means.

What Putin would really like is for countries to start rounding people up - he can then sell that as nazis and concentration camps. Putin sells that internally as he's the party that is keeping the Russian kids safe at night against the evil nazis.. rather hypocritical.

I can see what he's done is to force moderate Russians out of russia as refugees, then have the FSB use Russian speakers to stir up a reaction, throw the toys out of the pram and start supplying arms to those causing problems and hoping that he has photos of dead Russians and prisoners that he can sell politically.. to escalate.

Seriously - is this only thing that the United Russia party is able todo? Repeat the record without learning or changing?

Putin has failed in Ukraine, he's trying to spread distruption and conflict as broad has can. China will simply remain quiet and carry on with it's business, massaging Putin and Russia's ego until Putin has spread himself too thin with conflict..

The Chinese don't care about Russia or non-US countries, so I suspect they couldn't care less about the Brothers Grimsby giving it the full Anteater. If Putin wants to fall on their economic sword they will just let him.
The China-US relationship, although stormy, does have some mutual respect from the diplomatic dialogue. That isn't going to stop a bit of storm over Taiwan/south china seas in the short-medium term.

 

[Minusorange]

Will be interesting to know where they are plucking these from, we've barely got enough for our forces...

Some countries are already running low in reserves so they're straight up just buying brand new weaponry and sending that to Ukraine, I believe Canada was one of the names mentioned in the article I saw