Energy Prices (Strictly NO referrals!)

Martini1991 · 16 Jun 2022 at 12:40

Jokester said:
Not entirely sure what they expect to happen with an interest rise. Useful when inflationary pressures are due to booming economic activity, when it’s not, probably not?

Maybe it's my simplistic view, but certainly my view too

There will be some people with absolutely no money left, having to somehow spend more money they don't have, to take away from their disposable money they don't have.

Uther · 16 Jun 2022 at 12:40

robfosters said:
Well, I wouldn't want any big big rises quickly. Would severely damage too many peoples financial stability. I really don’t want people losing their houses.

Using one of the popular terms from covid, that's probably baked in now.

Uther · 16 Jun 2022 at 12:43

Martini1991 said:
Maybe it's my simplistic view, but certainly my view too

There will be some people with absolutely no money left, having to somehow spend more money they don't have, to take away from their disposable money they don't have.

Food banks (a great Tory success story apparently) are very popular even with working people just now.

purplesky · 16 Jun 2022 at 12:44

Martini1991 said:
Maybe it's my simplistic view, but certainly my view too

There will be some people with absolutely no money left, having to somehow spend more money they don't have, to take away from their disposable money they don't have.

Well given that prices are only going to keep on going up, thanks to imported inflation which is being supported by an incompetent/corrupt central bank who aren't supporting the currency, I think these people you talk of will just have to go without food, fuel and energy.

Martini1991 · 16 Jun 2022 at 12:51

purplesky said:
Well given that prices are only going to keep on going up, thanks to imported inflation which is being supported by an incompetent/corrupt central bank who aren't supporting the currency, I think these people you talk of will just have to go without food, fuel and energy.

May's well stick the base rate to 2% so they can go without a roof too......

purplesky · 16 Jun 2022 at 12:56

Martini1991 said:
May's well stick the base rate to 2% so they can go without a roof too......

No point having a roof when you're dead.
The single most important thing today is getting food, fuel and energy prices under control. Not raising rates enough is going to kill people..

purplesky · 16 Jun 2022 at 12:59

Prediction for August? I'd say 0.5%.
Sure the Fed's next move is going to be 0.5% or 0.75%, although the former more likely. BofE are just delaying the inevitable.

Martini1991 · 16 Jun 2022 at 13:00

purplesky said:
No point having a roof when you're dead.
The single most important thing today is getting food, fuel and energy prices under control. Not raising rates enough is going to kill people..

How does a higher interest rate fix that?

BUDFORCE · 16 Jun 2022 at 13:01

Goodie said:
Crazy how many banking experts are lingering around these parts

You think the "actual" experts know what they are doing?

Uther · 16 Jun 2022 at 13:03

purplesky said:
Prediction for August? I'd say 0.5%.
Sure the Fed's next move is going to be 0.5% or 0.75%, although the former more likely. BofE are just delaying the inevitable.

Death by a thousand cuts.

Jono8 · 16 Jun 2022 at 13:04

BUDFORCE said:
You think the "actual" experts know what they are doing?

Indeed. The whole global economy has become so vast,complicated,reliant on computers and AI, that humans cannot properly comprehend or understand it any more. It is all going to end very badly.

purplesky · 16 Jun 2022 at 13:08

Martini1991 said:
How does a higher interest rate fix that?

It doesn't fully fix it. But the inflation we are seeing is heavily import related inflation where basically everything is priced in USD. You must realise that a weaker currency causes an increase in prices? The Fed are going to continue to raise rates and support the world's reserve currency. Other central banks need to get in line or else.

purplesky · 16 Jun 2022 at 13:16

Interestingly, the GBP hasn't tanked as hard as one might expect, but that's probably due to the 0.25% already being priced in. GBP up against the EUR, but that says nothing as the EUR is a basket case in its own right.
But... there has been a little bit of a language change following the BofE's comment today: "would if necessary act forcefully in response". Forcefully is a strong word, and markets tend to pick up things like this as it sort of sets the stage for what comes next.

200sols · 16 Jun 2022 at 13:19

purplesky said:
Interestingly, the GBP hasn't tanked as hard as one might expect, but that's probably due to the 0.25% already being priced in. GBP up against the EUR, but that says nothing as the EUR is a basket case in its own right.
But... there has been a little bit of a language change following the BofE's comment today: "would if necessary act forcefully in response". Forcefully is a strong word, and markets tend to pick up things like this as it sort of sets the stage for what comes next.

0.25 was already priced in as you say, and the language was hawkish not dovish. But it will still bleed out over the next couple of months before the next meeting IMO. Even the swiss are upping the rate 50bp :cry:

Martini1991 · 16 Jun 2022 at 13:29

purplesky said:
It doesn't fully fix it. But the inflation we are seeing is heavily import related inflation where basically everything is priced in USD. You must realise that a weaker currency causes an increase in prices? The Fed are going to continue to raise rates and support the world's reserve currency. Other central banks need to get in line or else.

I understand, but I don't see how this equates for anything close to what we're seeing for increases.

fez · 16 Jun 2022 at 13:58

BUDFORCE said:
You think the "actual" experts know what they are doing?

Of course they know what they are doing. The difference is know what they should be doing vs actually doing it. The whole banking sector is rife with absolute ***** of the highest order who would set fire to a school full of children if if meant they got a massive bonus at the end of the year.

This is the biggest scam of the whole system in my opinion. These companies / institutions know that what they are doing is wrong, dangerous or going to implode in the near future. They simply don't care because they stand to make money on the way up and on the way down. Look at how the biggest companies and banks did during COVID. Look at how the biggest banks will do over the coming years. All you have to do is insulate yourself from the losses and profit when times are good.

Anyone with even a basic understanding of economics would have some questions about the effect of pumping trillions of dollars into the US economy in a short time span.

Its not ignorance, its wilfully dangerous actions.

Jono8 said:
Indeed. The whole global economy has become so vast,complicated,reliant on computers and AI, that humans cannot properly comprehend or understand it any more. It is all going to end very badly.

This is true to some extent but most of it is very manageable and is simply a mess created by people who stand to do very well during the creation of the mess.

chrcoluk · 16 Jun 2022 at 14:42

200sols said:
Not really, the currency must be defended at all costs.

A dovish 25bp rise today would be nothing short of catastrophic for sterling.

Are you sure, absolutely all cost?

chrcoluk · 16 Jun 2022 at 14:47

200sols said:
The BoEs remit is to keep inflation in check, that should be their aim. Part of the reason sterling is so low is because investors have lost faith with the mixed signals the BoE have been throwing out there and what actually is it doing, is its aim to deal with inflation or to deal with the economy?

It wont have any direct impact on retail inflation which is why its so stupid, and then on top of that raising rates raises debt cost inflation (is big part of peoples cost of living so we cant pretend cost to service debt doesnt matter).

I do get that someone explained the impact on the value of currency which of course affects cost of imports, this is been triggered by the Americans not holding firm and raising their rates.

We in for a period of heavy pain, high retail inflation and high debt inflation now.

chrcoluk · 16 Jun 2022 at 14:49

JamesH85 said:
To keep inflation in check, realistically they should be following the US, were quite a way off.

Why do you think rate rises will keep inflation in check? its not going to do squat for essentials inflation.

cu3ed · 16 Jun 2022 at 15:05

chrcoluk said:
Why do you think rate rises will keep inflation in check? its not going to do squat for essentials inflation.

Depends, its does work, just not in a direct way. If it stops people spending as much, more resources across many sales and products are reduced in need, meaning manufacturing is less required, less fuel used etc.