Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Roar87 said:
I don't think that's true. Russia isn't sweeping through Ukraine with ease winning battle after battle and looking like they'll push on into NATO countries. I think Russia wants to capture the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, I don't think they have intentions to go further than that. They're not having a good time and they need this war to end.
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That may not be how Putin sees it.
 
Roar87 said:
I don't think that's true. Russia isn't sweeping through Ukraine with ease winning battle after battle and looking like they'll push on into NATO countries. I think Russia wants to capture the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, I don't think they have intentions to go further than that. They're not having a good time and they need this war to end.
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Even if Russia magically ends up taking all of Ukraine tomorrow, with their losses to date they need to pause and rebuild for a 2-5 years before they try to enter nato territory

So even if Russia plans to attack NATOnit won't be doing so for a few years so it's enough time to prepare
 
Rroff said:
That may not be how Putin sees it.
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I mean if he's being totally illogical then yeah he may not see it like that. I think he was advised poorly, his forces underperformed badly, and now he wants a victory to save face.
Grim5 said:
Even if Russia magically ends up taking all of Ukraine tomorrow, with their losses to date they need to pause and rebuild for a 2-5 years before they try to enter nato territory

So even if Russia plans to attack NATOnit won't be doing so for a few years so it's enough time to prepare
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I think 2-5 years is way off, I think 10 years is more realistic. Russia can never win a war with NATO, they're stupid, but they're not that stupid.
 
Have Russia ever been clear about their goal of this special school military operation?

Denazification was just nonsense. Stopping alignment with the West to create a buffer state or trying to degrade Ukraines military is going to need years of ongoing effort.

It feels like they have no real plan but they're committed to it so can't pull out without looking weaker than they already do.
 
Roar87 said:
I think 2-5 years is way off, I think 10 years is more realistic. Russia can never win a war with NATO, they're stupid, but they're not that stupid.
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I don't think Russia will intentionally engage NATO in a committed war, but may try a continuation of what we've seen in Ukraine to see how far NATO will give before pushing back. Trickling a constant flow of "volunteers" and mercenaries into the meat grinder with ageing hardware.
 
Minstadave said:
Have Russia ever been clear about their goal of this special school military operation?
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No. But the implied intent of the way they attacked is that they were looking to enact regime change, replacing the Ukrainian government with a fresh Russian stooge. Seen in the longer term since the conflict began in 2014, it's most likely about securing Sevastopol and thus ensuring that Russia has a warm water port in the Baltics. Annexing Crimea secured that port, but it is still not particularly accessible from the mainland. Russia's current aim then is likely to connect Crimea to the Russia border via a wide land corridor. Establishing, and later annexing, the Donask and Luhansk "Republics" from their respective Oblasts seems like a substantial secondary aim.

That land bridge is currently Russian controlled, but Ukraine is a long way from conceding the land so assumedly Russia needs to keep holding that land and grind enough Ukrainian blood into the soil that they can force them to surrender a substantial slice of the country.
 
Mr Jack said:
No. But the implied intent of the way they attacked is that they were looking to enact regime change, replacing the Ukrainian government with a fresh Russian stooge. Seen in the longer term since the conflict began in 2014, it's most likely about securing Sevastopol and thus ensuring that Russia has a warm water port in the Baltics. Annexing Crimea secured that port, but it is still not particularly accessible from the mainland. Russia's current aim then is likely to connect Crimea to the Russia border via a wide land corridor. Establishing, and later annexing, the Donask and Luhansk "Republics" from their respective Oblasts seems like a substantial secondary aim.

That land bridge is currently Russian controlled, but Ukraine is a long way from conceding the land so assumedly Russia needs to keep holding that land and grind enough Ukrainian blood into the soil that they can force them to surrender a substantial slice of the country.
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They genuinely seemed to think that the threat of force + collaborators inside the country would result in Ukraine folding very very quickly kind of like with Crimea. IMO they genuinely thought they'd have a puppet government in Kyiv within days and just a case of then defeating isolated army groups and individual hold out cities.

Putin's stated aims on TV as his first statement once things kicked off called it an operation to secure the borders of the break away regions pushing Ukraine further back from them - but I suspect that was likely what he was selling to the domestic audience rather than necessarily the intention. Even the stuff about denazifying came later.
 
*seven said:
30-Jun-2022 12:10:15 - NATO’s Stoltenberg: It Is President Putin Who Should Stop This War in Ukraine Immediately
30-Jun-2022 12:10:42 - NATO’s Stoltenberg: Sweden and Finland Have Every Right to Join NATO, but We Are Preparing for Every Eventuality
30-Jun-2022 12:11:09 - NATO’s Stoltenberg: We Are There to Protect All Allies, and Also Finland and Sweden
30-Jun-2022 12:14:33 - NATO’s Stoltenberg: Sweden and Finland to Send NATO Accession Protocol on Tuesday
30-Jun-2022 12:24:45 - NATO’s Stoltenberg: Turkey and Greece Are Trying to Facilitate an Agreement To Get Grain out of Ukraine
https://youtu.be/MyD5e8UZI4o

30-Jun-2022 12:21:44 - French President Macron: France Will Soon Deliver Six Additional CAESAR Guns to Ukraine
30-Jun-2022 12:22:28 - French President Macron: Russia Must Not Win in Ukraine As This Would Threaten EU Security
30-Jun-2022 12:24:35 - French President Macron: Rejects Argument That Russia’s War in Ukraine Could Be Justified By Supposed NATO Agression Towards Russia
30-Jun-2022 12:25:38 - French President Macron: Summit Decided to Reinforce Eastern Flank in Order To Respond to Russia Threat
30-Jun-2022 12:28:44 - French President Macron: NATO Membership of Sweden and Finland Will Strengthen These Countries’ Security
30-Jun-2022 12:29:36 - French President Macron: Finland and Sweden NATO Membership Is Clear Signal to Russia That Putin’s Strategies Are Wrong and Hurt His Own Interests
30-Jun-2022 12:30:12 - French President Macron: Result of Russia’s War on Ukraine Is Strengthening of NATO and European Security
30-Jun-2022 12:34:41 - French President Macron: NATO Is Not an Alliance Against China but We Must Take Account of Systemic Challenges Posed by China
30-Jun-2022 12:38:45 - French President Macron: Support for Ukraine Cannot Stop, Ukraine’s Fight Is The European Union and NATO’s Fight
30-Jun-2022 12:40:38 - French President Macron: Reforming EU Power Market Is Necessary to Limit the Economic Impact Of Russia’s War in Ukraine
30-Jun-2022 12:42:05 - French President Macron: Grain Supplies Held Up in Odessa Partly Shipped via Romania and Moldavia, EU Must Find Other Alternative Routes
30-Jun-2022 12:42:58 - French President Macron: Also Solution Needed to Ship More Fertiliser Blocked by War
30-Jun-2022 12:50:06 - French President Macron: French and EU Indo-Pacific Strategy Is to Make Sure Freedom and Sovereignty Is Respected, Does Not Want to See Destabilisation and Hegemony From China
30-Jun-2022 12:50:58 - French President Macron: Will Discuss Strategy In Meeting With Australian PM
30-Jun-2022 13:02:32 - French President Macron: Welcomes Denmark’s Cooperation With European Defense Initiatives
30-Jun-2022 13:04:57 - French President Macron: Now 12 French Caesar Artillery Pieces in Place in Ukraine, Six More to Arrive Soon
https://youtu.be/sG5xZyE-bis (French)

30-Jun-2022 12:27:34 - German Chancellor Scholz: Germany Will Begin NATO Ratification Process For Sweden, Finland This Week
30-Jun-2022 12:29:54 - German Chancellor Scholz: Our Contribution to NATO in Air, Land and Sea Will Be Expanded Greatly
30-Jun-2022 12:31:46 - German Chancellor Scholz: Will Hold Permanently at the Ready Regional Marine Commando In the Baltic Sea, Tank Division With 15,000 Soldiers, 20 Naval Units
30-Jun-2022 12:39:58 - German Chancellor Scholz: Does Not Want to Speculate How Long Ukraine Will Need Support in War
30-Jun-2022 12:44:12 - German Chancellor Scholz: Putin’s Comments About NATO Imperialism Are Ridiculous, Putin Is The One Making Imperialism His Goal
30-Jun-2022 12:50:05 - German Chancellor Scholz: Germany Has Policy of Doing What’s Necessary When Companies Face External Shocks
30-Jun-2022 12:55:09 - German Chancellor Scholz, Asked About Uniper: Help Must Be Decided on an Individual Basis
30-Jun-2022 12:57:06 - German Chancellor Scholz: We’re Ramping Up Military Capabilities As Fast As We Can
30-Jun-2022 12:59:02 - German Chancellor Scholz: No One Can Say What Would Make Putin End the War

30-Jun-2022 12:32:55 - UK PM Boris Johnson: We Must Recognise the Risk That Other Countries Don’t Take the Same View of Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine
30-Jun-2022 12:34:55 - UK PM Boris Johnson: If Ukraine Forced Into Bad Peace, Consequences Would Be Felt Around the World
30-Jun-2022 12:35:41 - UK PM Boris Johnson: Snake Island Is An Example of Ukrainian Resistance
30-Jun-2022 12:37:43 - UK PM Boris Johnson: UK Defence Spending Will Reach 2.5% of GDP by The End of This Decade
30-Jun-2022 12:50:58 - UK PM Boris Johnson: It Is Very Important to Remember We Have a Huge Economic Relationship With China
30-Jun-2022 12:51:10 - UK PM Boris Johnson: But There Are Areas in Which We Need to Challenge What China Is Upto
30-Jun-2022 12:51:58 - UK PM Boris Johnson: We Are Making Sure There Is a Balance and That We Are Standing Up to China Where Necessary
30-Jun-2022 12:57:30 - UK PM Boris Johnson: We Think Ukrainians Do Have in Their Power to Repel Russia
https://youtu.be/E1qXFCczmxM
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4 pressers all at once, that was lots of copy pasting & editing even for me (- bumping)

30-Jun-2022 12:57:23 - Ukraine Army Brigadier General Hromov: Russia Has Ramped Up Missile Strikes In Second Half of June
30-Jun-2022 12:58:40 - Ukraine Army Brigadier General Hromov: More Than Half of Missiles Are From Soviet Reserves and Less Precise, Which Is Why Residential Buildings Are Being Hit
30-Jun-2022 13:16:21 - Ukraine Army Brigadier General Hromov: There Are No Ukrainian Forces Currently on Snake Island but There Will Be
30-Jun-2022 13:19:39 - Ukraine Army Brigadier General Hromov: Russian Equipment on Snake Island Destroyed
30-Jun-2022 13:21:13 - Ukraine Army Brigadier General Hromov: Ukraine Army Will Do Everything Possible so Ships Carrying Grain Can Pass Through Black Sea
30-Jun-2022 13:22:40 - Ukraine Army Brigadier General Hromov: Ukraine Army Currently Has No Plans to Withdraw From Lysychansk
 
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Custor said:
Nothing more than an missile overshooting its target given its wasn't a very accurate missile by all accounts.
Sky gave it's Military Expert view point of an 'overshot missile', then dropped it again and went back to war quoting 'war crime' for click bait.

Crap if you are the collateral. Russia don't have the cash to blow up BlueWater for lolz.
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Malevolence said:
₽10 has been deposited into your account, comrade.
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From the (Ukrainian) horse's mouth:

30-Jun-2022 12:58:40 - Ukraine Army Brigadier General Hromov: More Than Half of Missiles Are From Soviet Reserves and Less Precise, Which Is Why Residential Buildings Are Being Hit

"Horse" being Oleksii Hromov, brigadier general, Deputy Head of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
 
Just seen a Ukranian video showing the snake island operation.

Looks like they setup French Caesar artillary on the coast nearest snake island and were just in range (38km) to hit it with sustained fire without the need for air strikes (though it looked like TB2's were spotting and correcting the shots).

With no cover available it would have been suicide for the Orks to stay put there.
 
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30-Jun-2022 13:45:55 - Putin: We Will Try to Remain the World’s Largest Wheat Exporter
30-Jun-2022 13:47:42 - Putin: We Do Not Hamper Ukraine’s Grain Exports
30-Jun-2022 13:50:33 - Putin: Western Sanctions Caused Problems For Global Food and Fertiliser Markets
30-Jun-2022 13:51:10 - Putin: Russia and UN Are in Contact About These Issues
30-Jun-2022 13:58:40 - Putin: Some Actions Need to Be Taken To Prevent Situation on Global Food Market From Becoming “Tragic”

30-Jun-2022 14:05:44 - Russia’s Lavrov: Iron Curtain Between Russia and the West Is Already Coming Into Place

30-Jun-2022 13:57:42 - Biden: NATO Is More United After Russian Invasion of Ukraine
30-Jun-2022 13:59:55 - Biden: Majority of NATO Members on Track to Exceed Commitment to Spend 2 pct GDP on Defense
30-Jun-2022 14:00:17 - Biden: NATO Will Defend Every Inch of NATO Territory
30-Jun-2022 14:01:18 - Biden: United States Is Rallying World to Stand Behind Ukraine
30-Jun-2022 14:02:14 - Biden: U.S. Intends to Announce $800 Million Additional Weapons Aid to Ukraine
30-Jun-2022 14:08:33 - Biden: U.S. Is Going to Support Ukraine As Long As It Takes
30-Jun-2022 14:09:52 - Biden: Russia Is Paying a Very Heavy Price for Ukraine Invasion
30-Jun-2022 14:11:00 - Biden: War Will Not End With a Russian Defeat of Ukraine in Ukraine
30-Jun-2022 14:15:42 - Biden: Told Turkey’s Erdogan That U.S. Should Sell F-16 to Turkey but Needs Congressional Approval
30-Jun-2022 14:16:16 - Biden: Believes Congress Will Approve Sale of F-16s to Turkey
30-Jun-2022 14:17:52 - Biden: Will See Saudi King and Crown Prince but That Is Not What the Middle East Trip Is About
30-Jun-2022 14:18:12 - Biden: Told Gulf States They Should Be Increasing Oil Production
https://youtu.be/Wmdp-Ur-YIE
 
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CaneyJ said:
Just seen a Ukranian video showing the snake island operation.

Looks like they setup French Caesar artillary on the coast nearest snake island and were just in range (38km) to hit it with sustained fire without the need for air strikes (though it looked like TB2's were spotting and correcting the shots).

With no cover available it would have been suicide for the Orks to stay put there.
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Think it was a Ukranian made 2S22 Bohdana.
 
30-Jun-2022 14:30:00 - Reuters Poll - Russian Central Bank Seen Cutting Key Rate to 8.0% by Year-End (8.0% in Previous Poll)
30-Jun-2022 14:30:00 - Reuters Poll - Russian 2022 GDP Contraction Seen at 7.1% (7.6% in Previous Poll)
30-Jun-2022 14:30:00 - Reuters Poll - Russian Inflation Seen at 14.5% at End of 2022 (16.4% in Previous Poll)
30-Jun-2022 14:30:00 - Reuters Poll - Rouble Seen at 75.73 vs Dollar in 12 Months, vs 51.16 Set by C.bank for June 30 (Pvs Poll: 77.80)
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30-Jun-2022 14:31:13 - Indonesia President: War in Ukraine Has Affected Food Supply and All Emerging Markets Have Been Impacted
30-Jun-2022 14:32:28 - Indonesia President: Food Supply Cannot Be Improved Without Russian Food, Fertilizer, Ukrainian Wheat
30-Jun-2022 14:33:45 - Indonesia President: Asked G7 for Russian Fertilizer to Be Excluded From Sanctions List
30-Jun-2022 14:35:40 - Indonesia President Was Delivering Remarks After Meeting With Russian Leader Putin in Moscow

30-Jun-2022 14:41:54 - Turkey’s Erdogan: Turkey President Erdogan: NATO Summit Was A Success
30-Jun-2022 14:43:06 - Turkey’s Erdogan: We Must Intensify Efforts For a Lasting Ceasefire in Ukraine
30-Jun-2022 14:50:41 - Turkey’s Erdogan: Promises in Deal With Finland, Sweden Over Their NATO Bids Must Be Realised
30-Jun-2022 14:51:16 - Turkey’s Erdogan: Turkey Sees the Signing of the Memorandum With Finland and Sweden As Recognition of Turkey’s Sensitivities Around Terrorism
30-Jun-2022 14:51:34 - Turkey’s Erdogan: Deal With Finland, Sweden a “Diplomatic Victory” for Turkey
30-Jun-2022 14:52:46 - Turkey’s Erdogan: Sweden Has Promised to Extradite 73 Terrorists to Turkey
30-Jun-2022 14:53:59 - Turkey’s Erdogan: All of Turkey’s Sensitivities Have Been Included in Accord With Finland and Sweden
30-Jun-2022 14:57:48 - Turkey’s Erdogan: Will Try to Continue Phone Diplomacy With Ukraine’s Zelenskiy, Russia’s Putin This Weekend or Early Next Week on Grain Corridor
30-Jun-2022 14:59:46 - Turkey’s Erdogan: Biden Has Told Him He Would Do What He Can on Congress On U.S. Sale of F-16 Jets to Turkey
30-Jun-2022 15:00:26 - Turkey’s Erdogan: Turkish, U.S. Officials Will Hold Talks in the United States on F-16 Sale
30-Jun-2022 15:01:30 - Turkey’s Erdogan: Finland and Sweden Must First Realise Their Promises, if Not Ratification Will Not Be Sent to Turkish Parliament
30-Jun-2022 15:02:24 - Turkey’s Erdogan: Finland and Sweden Must Finish Legislative Changes On Terrorists As Soon As Possible
30-Jun-2022 15:13:17 - Turkey’s Erdogan: Issue of CAATSA Sanctions Did Not Come Up in Talks With U.S. President Biden, but There Are Positive Developments in Talks Between Foreign Ministers
30-Jun-2022 15:32:16 - Turkey’s Erdogan: Greece Has Violated Turkish Airspace 147 Times, It Needs To Be Held Accountable for This
https://youtu.be/_VR87z5JZ1c
 
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peterwalkley said:
That's going to need Turkey to allow warships through - which at the start of this they said they would not do and I've not seen anything since February to indicate a change in that stance.

No commercial grain shippers will operate there: the risks of being sunk by what Russia still has left in the Black Sea are too great, not to mention long range missiles fired from Russia whilst they're in the ports loading up.
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That remains to be seen. Just a month ago Turkey was hell bent on blocking Finland and Sweden entry into NATO but since then there's been a compromise.

As for a commercial grain shippers again we don't know, commercial insurance is a non starter but if they get indemnity from local governments that would help get around the financial risk.
 
In terms of shipping grain I think people (generally) are hopelessly unrealistic/out of touch - lots of ideals which are, almost to a level of lunacy, removed from the reality of the situation.

Strategically it would be utterly insane for Odessa to weaken their defensive position without extremely heavy presence from other nations to ensure security.
 
No way Russia is going to invite NATO to protect grain shipments. It’ll be a Tonkin Gulf all over again. ‘Whatever necessary’.
Starts with ships, then air cover to protect ships from ‘threats’ , then ground troops in the ports.
 
Minstadave said:
Have Russia ever been clear about their goal of this special school military operation?

Denazification was just nonsense. Stopping alignment with the West to create a buffer state or trying to degrade Ukraines military is going to need years of ongoing effort.

It feels like they have no real plan but they're committed to it so can't pull out without looking weaker than they already do.
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To be fair it sounds like a lot of those stupid arguments on the internet that were poorly thought out at the start and went on way beyond what was sensible.

Face-saving ahead from Russia.

"We never wanted it anyway"
 
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