Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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The whole situation is complicated because Russia will be relying on the payments for the gas to fund the war effort. They won't have pipelines in place to sell a lot of it elsewhere.

I think if they could have cut it off they would have by now. I suspect they'll prefer to trickle it in because they will get higher prices per kwh due to controlling supply/demand.

The best strategy probably still remains supplying Ukraine and forcing Russia to withdraw by way of making it too costly to continue.
 
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bigmike20vt said:
I hope i am not about to put my foot in it, and there are probably good reasons why am wrong and i am happy to be corrected. I hate what Russia is doing to the Ukraine and i would love nothing better to read that Putins cronies had turned on each other and taken themselves out and were pulling out of Ukraine.
All that being said, and again no offence meant............... (hopefully the small print out of the way ;) )
I am reading at the moment about how outrageous it is that Russia may be limiting their gas supply to the likes of Germany and other EU countries.

I get the reasons why this is really bad for Europe but, given all the other atrocities Russia are carrying out..... This is the one I think i sort of understand. Shoe on the other foot if we (by we i mean Great Britain as i am British) were invading say France, and lets say Noth sea oil was in desperate demand for the EU.............. would we not feel justified in cutting off our supply to them given the EU would be directly supporting France?.

I am not saying Russia are right in any way, but it seems strange to me that anyone would expect a country that we are an enemy of to supply us with anything, unless it benefited them to do so......... (I imagine they will sell what ever they need to over and above what they can sell elsewhere as anyone buying their oil or gas are funding their war chest).

Or am i wrong?........ of all the war crimes Russia are committing, cutting their gas sales, when everyone around them are equally cutting sales of stuff to Russia seems a pretty obvious thing to do.
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No your right, its a part of the "ammunition" Russia has to fight the war
The EU plus are supporting Ukraine.

Its a bit double edged for them, they also need the income, like its a bit double edged for the EU needing the Russian oil/gas
They are trying to balance keeping it as headline news within the EU whilst maximising their income.

If the EU say, we will be ok in a few months as long as Russia keep supplying X, then Russia go oops we need to supply X-Y then.

The longer it goes on the easier it will be to cope for the EU nations. Alternate sources of energy, more push (outside Germany) for nuclear, more renewables, hell even short term coal.
Longer term Russia is diminishing its hold, shorter term its gaining.
 
I suspect if Europe as a whole steps up replacements this could wind up biting Russia down the line, effectively they've played their hand and judged that Europe can't maintain function without them. If this is proven to be false as alternatives drip in, then reliance on Russian gas/oil will drop longer term.

Even if trade resumes fully after the war ends, people will be eyeing the Russian supply with skepticism, rightly so.

I have a feeling we'll be burning more coal in Europe this winter, but needs must in the circumstances.
 
indeed it is a crying shame that we will end up burning far more coal, it is the last thing the planet needs, however long term if it means people (/countries) go all in on investing in renewables (the only way to be self sufficient) then long term it may not be such a bad thing for the environment.

I do think long term Russia have shot themselves in the foot no matter what happens in the short term with the Ukraine.
 
bigmike20vt said:
indeed it is a crying shame that we will end up burning far more coal, it is the last thing the planet needs, however long term if it means people (/countries) go all in on investing in renewables (the only way to be self sufficient) then long term it may not be such a bad thing for the environment.

I do think long term Russia have shot themselves in the foot no matter what happens in the short term with the Ukraine.
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The optimist in me hopes that after this is all done, that Russia has a revolution and joins the western world rather than being opposed to us. Imagine how much better Europe would be with Russia as a modern, friendly ally.

One can dream!
 
HungryHippos said:
I suspect if Europe as a whole steps up replacements this could wind up biting Russia down the line, effectively they've played their hand and judged that Europe can't maintain function without them. If this is proven to be false as alternatives drip in, then reliance on Russian gas/oil will drop longer term.

Even if trade resumes fully after the war ends, people will be eyeing the Russian supply with skepticism, rightly so.

I have a feeling we'll be burning more coal in Europe this winter, but needs must in the circumstances.
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Energy is the main leverage over the EU that Russia has 100%.

Long term, the EU will look to among itself and diversify the energy supply for the countries, shutting Russia out, as no one wants this situation ever again.

Western investment in Russia will nose dive, especially as they are effectively stealing assets when the companies have pulled out. Fool me once and all that.
 
Russia are eking out the supply to make it hard for EU states to have an adequate winter reserve store going into 2023.
 
Mason- said:
The optimist in me hopes that after this is all done, that Russia has a revolution and joins the western world rather than being opposed to us. Imagine how much better Europe would be with Russia as a modern, friendly ally.

One can dream!
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indeed..... i think it will take some time however, trust takes a long time to build and can be damaged very quickly. Put it this way, lets say 6 months from now Russia have pulled out (lets ignore the reasons why and the small print) but things are back to being stable again. Now lets consider i am somoene like Elon Musk looking to build a huge gigafactory in the region....... There is absolutely no way i am going to build anything in Russia, and also sadly for the likes of the Ukraine, unless they are fully signed up members of Nato, i probably would not risk investing my cash there either given it could get flattend again just like 2014 ended only for it to happen again 8 years later.
I think it will need a whole generation of stability to fully settle down.
 
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Dyson said:
Not saying that I trust them, at all, it just irritates me how the Ukrainian troops seem to have their war crimes glossed over by many as if they don't happen.
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Can you show us the war crimes are are not Russian propaganda?

The observers have plenty Russian war crimes on show.
 
Rroff said:
Given the events at the start of WW2 and since and probably as good as understanding of Russia as anyone Poland probably understand the value in being prepared and that this doesn't necessarily end at Ukraine.

They've also been investing in high mobility armoured vehicles capable of mounting multiple air and ground missile launcher systems such as Brimstone.
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What doesnt end at Ukrain? I know you are a Russian stooge but you can't seriosly think Poland will be a target for Russia any time soon, or any one else for that matter.

Russia are done for a long time after this, they will be in the stone age for a good few years.
 
Mason- said:
The optimist in me hopes that after this is all done, that Russia has a revolution and joins the western world rather than being opposed to us. Imagine how much better Europe would be with Russia as a modern, friendly ally.

One can dream!
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Thats going to take a revolution with someone like Navalny in charge.

Doubtfull but this war might help it along with any luck.
 
bris said:
What doesnt end at Ukrain? I know you are a Russian stooge but you can't seriosly think Poland will be a target for Russia any time soon, or any one else for that matter.

Russia are done for a long time after this, they will be in the stone age for a good few years.
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Don't mistake me being cautionary for being pro-Russian.

Despite what you might see in the mainstream news Russia still has the capability and seemingly the madness to continue waging war for quite a long time yet. Partly thanks to Western countries still propping up the war chest with energy payments and seemingly thinking the sanctions, etc. are there for LOLs by finding loopholes, etc.

People including those in governments seem to vastly underestimate how much Putin has attempted to do this while minimising the impact to the standing armed forces (due as much as anything to paranoia in regard to the security position vs the West) - often interpreting as desperation where Russia has attempted to use more disposable means.
 
Germany has now delivered their 3 promised Mars II (MLRS) to Ukraine with a firing range of over 70 km together with 3 more PzHB2000 self-propelled howitzers capable of hitting targets 40 kilometers away, in addition to the first batch of Gepard anti-aircraft vehicles that arrived this week.
www-spiegel-de.translate.goog

Ukrainekrieg: Deutschland liefert Mehrfachraketenwerfer und Panzerhaubitzen

Die Ukraine hat die angekündigten Mehrfachraketenwerfer erhalten, die Deutschland versprochen hatte. Auch Panzerhaubitzen wurden laut Verteidigungsministerin Lambrecht geliefert – weiteres schweres Gerät soll folgen.
www-spiegel-de.translate.goog www-spiegel-de.translate.goog
 
bris said:
Can you show us the war crimes are are not Russian propaganda?

The observers have plenty Russian war crimes on show.
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They wont provide examples, I already asked. They pop into this thread every now and then and shout "what about Ukrainian war crimes" stating no examples and call the thread an echo chamber when no one discusses it with them.
If anyone bothered to provide examples then people would discuss it but that doesn't happen.
 
steve45 said:
They have received Stormer HVM. I also beleive they have received or will so imminently the NASAMS system. Not as mobile so I suspect this will be used to protect Cities/High value targets.

Germany were supposed to be providing Gepard SPAAG and possibly IRIS T. However I am unsure on what the current state of delivery is or if they will ever see them.

From the neighbours I seem to remember them receiving S300 systems.

There is a lot of information floating about but difficult to pin down accuracy, and what has actually been delivered or pledged.
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i read earlier today not sure where now, but the first three Gepards are now in-country. there was initially an issue with ammunition because Germany had put them into storage. however Brazil stepped up and have offered in the region of 93,000 rounds of 35mm. which is great, but also kicks the idea that the BRICS nations were all in Russia's corner slightly out of the park
 
Hotwired said:
Casually buying a few thousand mobile artillery, tanks and IFVs. And 48 planes. Possibly they're not seeing the value in planes these days. If Russia can't make planes work against a bunch of manpads then probably Poland can't either.
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These 48 are effectively "Light Strike" fighters i.e. weaponised trainer aircraft. Poland already has an order in for F-35A Stealth fighters and has a whole slew of F-16C/D Block 52 to cover it's Strike and Air Superiority demands so these 48 cover the loss of their MiG-29's and can augment their limited number of M-346 training aircraft (and the loss of their old 60's trainers) whilst retaining a decent weapons capability with an AESA radar.

Frankly, due to the length of industry lead times, I'm surprised more European nations aren't putting orders in now, but I suspect that more due the concern that Ukraine will "win" and Russia will allow itself to be put back in it's box, making any additional actual defence spending (i.e. putting orders in and not just saying you've increased your budget) seem pointless in the long run which may/may not with hindsight be the right decision.

I know for sure though Poland, which has seen the Bear up close, has decided - Nah, I don't want to depend on anyone else, I'll just hold the Russians on my own by having the strongest non-nuclear military in Europe thanks!
 
ianh said:
These 48 are effectively "Light Strike" fighters i.e. weaponised trainer aircraft. Poland already has an order in for F-35A Stealth fighters and has a whole slew of F-16C/D Block 52 to cover it's Strike and Air Superiority demands so these 48 cover the loss of their MiG-29's and can augment their limited number of M-346 training aircraft whilst retaining a decent weapons capability with an AESA radar.
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Perfectly capable for close air support/ground attack and these days with stand-off munitions (AMRAAMs, etc.) backed up with capable long range/sensor network a credible threat against all but the most advanced jets (which in reality Russia has very few of). The reality of air combat has changed hugely in the last few years.
 
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