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The price of graphics cards will continue to tank and will stay low for at least 2 years - Here's why

Soldato
Joined
27 Feb 2015
Posts
12,621
If I go into my account and select the change my tariff option this is what I get:

Octopus 12 Month Fixed:

jvjilM5.jpg

Loyal Octopus 12 Month Fixed:

EnUI1d7.jpg

I got a renewal email from Octopus offering me electric at 40p day / 7.5p at night which I kind of had to accept. 16p per Kwh up to 40p and that is what is considered a good deal for a 12 month fix these days!
How come you getting offered a night rate?

Here is my Loyalty Octopus 12m Fixed, its single rate. Same named tariff but a different tariff wtf lol.
Oh yes note their completely whacked estimate as well lol.

Ybhm6AZ.png
 
Soldato
Joined
27 Feb 2015
Posts
12,621
It's because I have an electric car. You get 7.5p / KWh between 12:30am and 4:30am to charge the car. You can't sign up to the Octopus Go tariff without an EV.
I meant the tariff you had on the change tariff page the basic loyalty fixed.

I found the answer now though, I think its because you already on a dual rate tariff.
 
Associate
Joined
11 Dec 2019
Posts
475
Location
Cardiff
It's because I have an electric car. You get 7.5p / KWh between 12:30am and 4:30am to charge the car. You can't sign up to the Octopus Go tariff without an EV.
I'm on the Go tariff and never questioned if I have an electric car or not. Just sign up.

It's just marketed as good for those with an electric car but when I started GPU mining and looking at costs the 4 hours at at 5p per hour helped reduce the total average cost. For some reason my Go tariff just rolled over through the price increases so far so I'm hoping it does the same when the term ends in January.
 
Associate
OP
Joined
25 Sep 2012
Posts
2,318
Location
Scotland
I'm on the Go tariff and never questioned if I have an electric car or not. Just sign up.

It's just marketed as good for those with an electric car but when I started GPU mining and looking at costs the 4 hours at at 5p per hour helped reduce the total average cost. For some reason my Go tariff just rolled over through the price increases so far so I'm hoping it does the same when the term ends in January.

Their terms and conditions state that you need either an EV or a plug in hybrid:


They introduced the EV / Hybrid requirement not that long ago so if you were already on GO then you are probably fine but I have heard they are asking for proof of a home charger for some new customers. It would be super easy for them to tell if you had an EV / Hybrid or not as you would probably be regularly using between 3.6KW or 7KW between 12:30 and 4:30 at least once a week. They state they can change you over to a different tariff if they think you don't have an EV / Hybrid.
 
Soldato
Joined
8 Nov 2006
Posts
22,983
Location
London
I don't understand why people are fixing electricity for 12 months at rates that will be above the next variable rate cap.

My unit rate went from 19.77p to 28.22p in April. People here are contemplating fixing at rates well over double that?

Sounds to me like energy companies have realised that there is zero competition right now as no one is switching and they can offer outrageous fixed deals.
 
Associate
OP
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2,318
Location
Scotland
I don't understand why people are fixing electricity for 12 months at rates that will be above the next variable rate cap.

My unit rate went from 19.77p to 28.22p in April. People here are contemplating fixing at rates well over double that?

I've not heard anyone saying they would be fixing at over 60p? Prices will probably exceed that in less than a year though.
 
Soldato
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Location
London
I've not heard anyone saying they would be fixing at over 60p? Prices will probably exceed that in less than a year though.

You don't know what prices will be in a year's time. It is like predicting what the stock market will be in a years times. If you knew, you could become very rich. The best anyone can do is make a prediction on the prices at the next review based on information available today. The current cap is on outdated info.

You want to know what my best prediction of the oil price for example for a month's time is?


It is today's price. As I'm just speculating what the price is beyond today.

Similarly, here are today's forward contracts for next year. If you think you know which direction these contracts are going to go, feel free to use that knowledge and become very rich. All anyone knows with any sort of certainty is that the cap which will use more of the higher rates below, will increase next review. Beyond that it could go up or down.

Screenshot-2022-08-14-223843.png
 
Last edited:
Soldato
Joined
8 Nov 2006
Posts
22,983
Location
London
whys the chart not for 2023 then, are you one year in the past?

I'm not sure if you are being funny. Don't know if you noticed this chart from Ofgem is up to date as of August 2022. There's a possibility you don't actually understand what a forward delivery contract being traded today means, rather than being sarcastic.

The current cap is based on a ~£132/MWh price. The next review it will jump to ~£200/MWh. What happens the following review depends entirely on how that graph above develops, and anyone telling you they know how it will go are free to become super rich.
 
Associate
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Predictions can change but the KWh price of electricity is predicted to reach 51 p/kWh by the end of the year.


Prices are then predicted to rise a further 19% in January which would bring the unit price of electricity to 60.69p.

That could be wrong. But I am willing to bet that it will be right, hence why I fixed at 40p KWh.

Without Government assistance 60.69p a KWh will be ruinous for many many families. GPU's will be one of the last things on their minds.
 
Soldato
Joined
8 Nov 2006
Posts
22,983
Location
London
Predictions can change but the KWh price of electricity is predicted to reach 51 p/kWh by the end of the year.


Prices are then predicted to rise a further 19% in January which would bring the unit price of electricity to 60.69p.

That could be wrong. But I am willing to bet that it will be right, hence why I fixed at 40p KWh.

Without Government assistance 60.69p a KWh will be ruinous for many many families. GPU's will be one of the last things on their minds.

People make predictions about everything. Anyone telling me they can predict a commodities/financial market, better be someone who puts money where their mouth is.

As for 40p, it definitely going to at least that, that doesn't require a prediction as the price is already that high. That is fine to state, as your link does.

Beyond the next review people are just guessing as there is no information yet.
 
Associate
OP
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People make predictions about everything. Anyone telling me they can predict a commodities/financial market, better be someone who puts money where their mouth is.

As for 40p, it definitely going to at least that unless the wholesale price of electricity plunges in the next month, that doesn't require a prediction as the price is already that high. Beyond the next review people are just guessing.

Yeah but they are not just plucking random numbers out of the air. Cornwall Insight seem to have a good record for their predictions being close to accurate.

What is likely to happen before the end of the year that will cause energy prices to fall? The war in Ukraine to end? Seems unlikely. European countries choosing to buy Russian gas again. Unlikely. Even if wholesale energy prices were to fall, you just know that it will take ages, if at all, for consumers to see any reductions on their bills.
 
Soldato
Joined
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22,983
Location
London
Yeah but they are not just plucking random numbers out of the air. Cornwall Insight seem to have a good record for their predictions being close to accurate.

It's easer to predict what is happening in the next review. It is literally happening now using information available now.

Just googling their prediction for the last cap.


They predicted £1660.


It was actually £1971.

Like I said, try and predict commodities or financial markets at your own peril.

I don't blame them for making predictions, but people taking them as anything more than slightly better than random, should be careful. Especially predictions far out.
 
Associate
OP
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It's easer to predict what is happening in the next review. It is literally happening now using information available now.

Just googling their prediction for the last cap.


They predicted £1660.


It was actually £1971.

Like I said, try and predict commodities or financial markets at your own peril.

That prediction was made in October 2021, before the Ukraine war started. What could you imagine happening before January next year that could cause wholesale energy prices to tumble and for those price decreases to be passed on to the consumer. The price consumers pay is only going one way between now and next year and it isn't down.
 
Soldato
Joined
8 Nov 2006
Posts
22,983
Location
London
That prediction was made in October 2021, before the Ukraine war started. What could you imagine happening before January next year that could cause wholesale energy prices to tumble and for those price decreases to be passed on to the consumer. The price consumers pay is only going one way between now and next year and it isn't down.

The prediction was 4 months out from the actual review. Not even a year.

That's a very misleading statement. Everyone knows the price is going up October, that is a certainty. However, if you think you know what the price will be relative to October 22, next year then you you are blind to what you don't know.

I suppose you know what oil prices will be next year as well?

edit:

Here is what a real prediction looks like.

Fig1.png
 
Associate
OP
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Scotland
The prediction was 4 months out from the actual review. Not even a year.

That's a very misleading statement. Everyone knows the price is going up October, that is a certainty. However, if you think you know what the price will be relative to October 22, next year then you you are blind to what you don't know.

I suppose you know what oil prices will be next year as well?

I don't 'know' what the price will be next year, but the odds of it being more expensive than it will be in October seem to be high. Between now and January no one is predicting a price drop. There doesn't seem to be any global news or events that might cause the price to drop. Even if it were to drop, consumers would not see a price reduction between now and early next year. Is it possible prices will drop or stop increasing? Yes. Is it likely, I don't think so.
 
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