Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Doggie2k said:
Russia literally have nothing left.
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Sadly the truth is more complicated.

For instance with the Tyulpan heavy mortar:

While this is only a few days worth of ammo for one unit they are nothing like short of ammo for them:


Russia is pulling more of the vehicles out of storage - the state doesn't look great but they are still combat capable/serviceable:


(There is 8 of them in the video, likely 9 in total, - from the rest of what is being shipped it would appear to be a full battery ready to go)

Broadly for this kind of hardware they've so far tapped around 20-30% of their deep storage, ~10% of their "maintained" reserves and about 20-30% of their existing active stock for Ukraine, actual state of those in reserve may be another story.

Biggest issue is likely going to be crewing them - self-propelled artillery of this era you can't just rock up and press the fire button to use them to effect on the battlefield - it needs experience and a lot of calculations and Russia has already expended a chunk of their experienced crews in Ukraine.
 
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The funny thing is that it's getting to the point where Russian equipment looks more complicated than Ukrainian so it will be interesting to see who could train up recruits faster. There will be many examples of this, but just a quick one - you need to do geometry calculation, calculate the position of the sun and all sorts, and then adjust dials and levers on a Russian artillery gun or Russia MLRS launcher - where as with Ukraine's nato equipment systems like their self propelled guns and HIMARS launchers, the drone pilot or forward scout just radios you the GPS coordinate of the enemy, you quickly type the number on the screen and press fire - so much faster, more accurate and less training required
 
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Grim5 said:
The funny thing is that it's getting to the point where Russian equipment looks more complicated than Ukrainian so it will be interesting to see who could train up recruits faster. There will be many examples of this, but just a quick one - you need to do geometry calculation, calculate the position of the sun and all sorts, and then adjust dials and levers on a Russian artillery gun or Russia MLRS launcher - where as with Ukraine's nato equipment systems like their self propelled guns and HIMARS launchers, the drone pilot or forward scout just radios you the GPS coordinate of the enemy, you quickly type the number on the screen and press fire - so much faster, more accurate and less training required
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Yeah there is a video I posted awhile back showed the difference - if Ukraine has modern self-propelled artillery they can literally rock up, fire and be gone in minutes or less with minimal training compared to taking dozens of minutes and needing to manually compute the firing calculations.
 
Looks like the approach Russia is going to be taking is implementing "martial law" in specific parts, likely those bordering Ukraine, during which all power is transferred to military administration as per Andrey Kartapolov's statement - I suspect then mysteriously a large amount of men in those regions will strangely find themselves holding a rifle marching towards Ukraine while Putin continues to insist there is no general mobilisation.

At least with that piece meal approach the most likely outcome is expending their man power bit by bit into the grinder ineffectively until they are defeated rather than a mobilisation which might be able to overcome through weight of numbers.
 
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Maybe Ukraine should actually announce a bunch of fake referenda results on joining Ukraine in the regions they institute their cannon fodder policy as a means to irritate Moscow.
 
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If they press gang people along the border into fighting I can see them telling their officers to **** off when ordered over the border. Especially if the muscovites up the road aren’t being forced
 
All Putin has to do is pack his armys bags and go home, but he has a massive ego, he is in to far, he cant do that, he is old and possibly sick and is a bit like Trump where his actions have no consequences to him safe in his bunker, cant see him backing down soon, to him that would be admitting defeat, and he wont have that ... our best hope is a total revolution against him and quite honesttly I think thats well on the cards.
 
Monkeynut said:
It seems that the only way that Ukraine can continue is they have to just ignore the Russian threats and keep pushing.
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Ukraine might but will the US? One thing they've been very careful about is not escalating the war onto russian soil with its weapons which is surely what Putin is nailing his colours to the mast on, raising the stakes by staking out captured territory as russian soil.
 
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Blackjack Davy said:
Ukraine might but will the US? One thing they've been very careful about is not escalating the war onto russian soil with its weapons which is surely what Putin is nailing his colours to the mast on, raising the stakes by staking out captured territory as russian soil.
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That part Doesn't matter, the world won't recognise and the US has already stated that Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea are Ukranian land, even just this week they stated it again - they will continue to support Ukranian operations on this land regardless of what fake Russian referendums say
 
Washout said:
If they press gang people along the border into fighting I can see them telling their officers to **** off when ordered over the border. Especially if the muscovites up the road aren’t being forced
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If the region is under full martial law the consequences are a rock and a hard place and Moscow will probably ensure there is as little chance as possible for them to organise themselves as an armed group capable of protesting in bulk of numbers.

Probably enough will buy into the propaganda, Russian soil and their homes under "threat", etc., the protests of the rest aren't sufficient anyway. Unfortunately even in this day and age a few unscrupulous people in a position of power can still roil up the masses to do their will bypassing any argument of intellect.
 
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Blackjack Davy said:
If nothing else it'll sell well to the russian people, russian soil being invaded/innocent voters being terrorized, bring on the reserves/full mobilisation
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Possibly although I wonder if that would be playing with a very sharp double-edged sword...

If they bring on the reserves / full mobilization it will surely compound their efforts to maintain supply lines and equipment, which they are already struggling to do with their "special operation"

It could expose the "General Russian Public" to the full incompetence of their military and the entire campaign, resulting in a monumental backlash against those in the Kremlin.
 
Devilman said:
Possibly although I wonder if that would be playing with a very sharp double-edged sword...

If they bring on the reserves / full mobilization it will surely compound their efforts to maintain supply lines and equipment, which they are already struggling to do with their "special operation"

It could expose the "General Russian Public" to the full incompetence of their military and the entire campaign, resulting in a monumental backlash against those in the Kremlin.
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I saw a video from one of the Russian ammunition depots captured in Kharkiv area - they'd used a fully equipped Ukrainian warehouse but instead of utilising the infrastructure to efficiently store and move the ammo they'd just piled it up any old how, the pallets (existing ones not ones they'd brought ammo on) were in the process of being dismantled for firewood. By the looks of it instead of being able to shift the whole lot in minutes to trucks and be gone they'd had to abandon it because it would have taken hours.
 
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Lavrov landing in Washington for the UN assembly - wonder how much bile he is going to spew this time and whether Putin's address delay is related.

EDIT: Putin's speech apparently timed for about half an hours time which coincides with Lavrov's timing hmm. I would laugh if he burnt Lavrov as a way to end the war but I can't see that happening in reality.
 
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I’ve got RT streaming but nothing other than regular news, which is literally the opposite of what our mainstream news reports. Quite interesting in an odd way.
 
Tesla said:
I’ve got RT streaming but nothing other than regular news, which is literally the opposite of what our mainstream news reports. Quite interesting in an odd way.
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Several Russia/Ukraine centric journalists are saying Putin's speech would be 8am Moscow time as in right now but nothing so far I can see.
 
Rroff said:
I saw a video from one of the Russian ammunition depots captured in Kharkiv area - they'd used a fully equipped Ukrainian warehouse but instead of utilising the infrastructure to efficiently store and move the ammo they'd just piled it up any old how, the pallets (existing ones not ones they'd brought ammo on) were in the process of being dismantled for firewood. By the looks of it instead of being able to shift the whole lot in minutes to trucks and be gone they'd had to abandon it because it would have taken hours.
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I've seen it mentioned repeatedly by people that are familiar with Russian logistics, both military and civilian that they simply don't use palletised and containerised shipping, especially in combination with mechanised loading to the extent most of the rest of the world does and their military basically doesn't use it at all.
I guess it's probably down to the fact their military really doesn't encourage long term service, and things like proper mechanised handling of goods required a much higher investment in both training and modern equipment than is allowed for by the Russian military. IIrc the west build's its weapon systems and logistics around the idea of mechanised load handling, something like 20% of US army trucks have cranes, and rocket platforms etc are designed to pretty much self load ammo pods. The Russian philosophy is still basically pre WW2 in terms of little or no mechanised handling where a bunch of humans can manage, and what load handling they do use is still typically very primitive (basic hoists requiring multiple people working slowly where NATO might use complicated systems that do everything once one crew member simply connects the hooks*).
The advantage of the Russian system is it doesn't require any special tools/training/vehicles (so 50 year old trucks sort of work), the downside is it's very slow, very manpower intensive and generally results in an unsafe mess if they're rushed or not supervised because of how much extra time/work it takes to do even simple movements.

*I think it's the Swedes who have an artillery system that comprises a launcher, and a support vehicle, it can stop, launch a bunch of shells and move in about 90seconds, and fully reload (I think 30 rounds and 100+ charges) from the support unit in about 3 minutes, total crew is something like 4 or 5 people between the two vehicles. I suspect future versions might not even need that many crew if they can improve the unit that moves the shells from the supply vehicle.
 
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