2022 mini-budget discussion

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They not even getting an increase to match the private sector.

I would perhaps be more supportive if there was an idea how this would be corrected e.g. would you support a delayed wage increase as a means of correction after inflation drops?

Wage increases can be done without printing new money. As an example Royal Mail had enough profits to pay for a wage increase, but they decided to use it on dividends instead.

Which just reduced their competitiveness with other courier companies such as Evri which employs people as self employed gig economy workers. Eventually those higher than necessary wages that RM are paying will result in lay offs.
 
As far as I can see it really is; it's a basic affordability calculation.

I mean to me it's pretty obvious, if I look at the types of houses I could afford 6 months ago, it's like a country mile away from what I could afford now - with the new rates taken into account...

I don't understand how people are going to cope, literally - I can't see how people are going to be able to deal with the rate rises, you're talking £1k a month adding to the mortgage payment for some people.
 
Didn't you say Lefties go abroad when they don't get their own way as an insult earlier?

But fine for rich business people to do so when they don't like the taxes?

It's almost like you aren't consistent here.

No, I said they take to the streets in protests when they can't get their own way through the democratic route.
 
Which just reduced their competitiveness with other courier companies such as Evri which employs people as self employed gig economy workers. Eventually those higher than necessary wages that RM are paying will result in lay offs.
What are the current higher than necessary wages?
 
They not even getting an increase to match the private sector.

I would perhaps be more supportive if there was an idea how this would be corrected e.g. would you support a delayed wage increase as a means of correction after inflation drops?

Wage increases can be done without printing new money. As an example Royal Mail had enough profits to pay for a wage increase, but they decided to use it on dividends instead.

I'd question the private Vs public sector increases - and by a genuinely independent review. Not skewed either way.

Obviously not against wage increases but they need to be sensible. Would an 8%, for instance, increase this year be acceptable but a reduction of 4% next year if inflation drops back down to say 3/4%?

RM is a basket case example - if you have a private sector company with a strong union how can it not end in disaster?

You do realise that lowering the tax take by 5% is an increase in nett income, right?

Not quite sure how that is relevant to public sector wage increases - or the lack of.
 
A nasty graphic.

8JxKYc5.jpg


Sorry it tops out at 9pc. Might need to add new columns

Worked out we can get our mortgage down from 207 to 140 in 5 years and still keep a yearly holiday.

However that leaves everything else (redoing the ensuite, new boiler, for example) and off the table.

Makes the remortgage in 5 years much more palatable.



But what if you lose your job? That buffer then may be better liquid?
Or is it better putting it in savings (you can get 4 percent locked for 2 years now) and paying off the mortgage at maturity.


Got a lot of thinking to do. Probably should wait until the dust settles to make a decision
 
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A nasty graphic.

Yeah it really is.

Something will have to break, house prices will crash or... what exactly? I can't see the rate going back down again....

There are a lot of people out there, with mortgages of 300-500k, they're going to get crucified...
 
As far as I can see it really is; it's a basic affordability calculation.


Please read the thread first then explain why you disagree.



Forget what?
I already posted the response to this showing that the 20% peak we saw in 1980 is equivalent to around 14% today. This also completely ignores the fact that mortgage lending criteria are also much stricter today. Mortgage companies have also typically used a 5.5% base rate as a stress test (in fact when I renewed mine earlier this year they were talking about much higher numbers in their stress test so maybe they knew something was coming!)
 
There are a lot of people out there, with mortgages of 300-500k, they're going to get crucified...

I'm just squeezing into that bracket & If I was remortgaging today onto a 4% mortgage my repayments would be 50% higher than they are now; £1,050 vs £1,560

Got a year and a half to worry about that but combined with my 1% payrise I'm not feeling amazingly confident on my quality of life remaining flat. Fortunate enough to have savings & assets but they can only stave off a £500 p/m change for so long.

There are many many out there who will buckle/break long before I do though :(
 
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I don't support what has gone before. A big jump in wages now just makes everything worse.

It's not ideal because when the public sector kick off and demand wage increases that are unrealistic, it puts them directly against the private sector that can't expect a similar increase.



Yes, Labour did this before. Allowed middle management public sector to bloat which takes a generation to pay off as they retire on higher than average pensions.

However, the Tory party hasn't really got rid of the middle management bloat. They just decimated front line staff.

Private sector have got good wage increases in the last year. Our staff got 8.5% in janaury and another 8.5% last month.

Public sector is currently growing much more slowly than in the private sector (1.8% versus 4.8% in the three months to April 2022, excluding bonuses; 1.5% versus 8.0% if bonuses are included).

I have sympathy for public sector workers who have had 10 years of wage stagnation and now are asking for the same as private sector are getting this year.
 
I'm just squeezing into that bracket & If I was remortgaging today onto a 4% mortgage my repayments would be 50% higher than they are now; £1,050 vs £1,560

Got a year and a half to worry about that but combined with my 1% payrise I'm not feeling amazingly confident on my quality of life remaining flat. There are many many out there who will buckle/break long before I do though :(

We can take a 30 percent house price drop. After that it becomes scary. But as you said. If that happens the whole economy will be in the toilet.

If me and my partner can keep our jobs I think we will be OK. But unfortunately that may become a big if. Depending on where things go.

If mortgage can get down to. 140 in 5 years, it will help a lot.
If I can get a better job in that time it'll be ok.
But again. Who knows what job market will be in a year. Let alone 5.

Planning now is near impossible.
 
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