Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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dowie said:
That's a bit exaggerated, Russian POWs aren't necessarily going to be beaten up when they return for example. There is the risk of mistreatment for "refusers" etc.. though.

I'm not sure many countries would apply your standards though, Germany perhaps, AFAIK places like Finland would require a higher standard than just "was a former conscript/reservist and required to be mobilised by his country as per his reserve commitments", they'd want to see evidence of a specific danger, public expression of anti-regime sympathies or anti-war sympathies etc.. simply being mobilised by the military isn't generally enough in itself for an asylum claim.
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They will get a beating after being arrested if they voluntarily surrendered:

...Those who voluntarily go into Ukrainian captivity can expect up to 10 years in prison, according to amendments passed by parliament and the Federation Council this week and put into effect by Putin's signature on September 24... Source
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Being a former national serviceman (automatically placed in the reserve thereafter) who was mobilised to be sent to attack a peaceful foreign country in an offensive war to capture their territory based upon a pack of lies is rather different to 'mobilised by his country as per his reserve commitments'. After all, there hasn't been a large mobilisation like this in Russia since World War 2.

All the draftee would have to do is write a letter to the draft board saying that he refuses to fight in Ukraine because the war is genocidal and indefensible and if they refuse to find him an alternative service option then he would be looking at a long stretch in prison, which would surely make him a political dissident worthy of political asylum in many countries?
 
Maple Leaf said:
Of course, there are Ukrainian losses! Where did I imply there were not? Talk about a non sequitur.

Yes, it would be better for the chances of getting rid of Putin, if unwilling draftees hostile to the regime/war hid out in Russia and got ready to become part of a general uprising against the government, but in the meantime they would be in considerable danger.

I suppose you would advise them to go to war with the Russian government and firebomb draft offices, kill policemen/FSB agents/politicians etc. Well, that's all very well if you are a young single man with a hero complex/death wish, but it's not very helpful advice for a middle-aged married man with young kids or dependent sick elderly parents.

The most likely way Putin will get deposed is by one of his lieutenants murdering him and taking over (he could be even worse than Putin). The next most likely way is by a military coup d'etat, which would probably happen shortly after Putin loses in Ukraine and is humiliated. Rather like what happened to the last Tsar. :D
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Well you were going on about what a hard time these conscript escapees are having and I'm contrasting that with the very real dangers Ukrainians are facing fighting Putin's army. The difference isn't even close. I figure there aren't many casualties amongst those applying for asylum? (a number higher than those actually conscripted by all account).

Russians seem to have a mindset that they have to put up with whatever government is imposed on them rather than one they actually want/need, and they don't seem willing to fight for it either - in contrast to that it is the exact reason why Ukraine will succeed. No-one is going to give you freedom you have to fight for it.
 
Chris Wilson said:
Those casually wanting Putin's head may want to reflect on how such a wish might pan out should a regime change ensue.
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I see this as a huge issue. If Putin was to fall, be it standing down, a Coup, assassination or whatever. I am not aware of any moderates who could step in and de-escalate. He has surrounded himself with so many hardliners there is a strong possibility that who ever replaces him could be worse.
If the ruling party were to be completely removed is there a legitimate viable replacement? Is it a case of better the devil you know? Whats the deal with that Nevalny geezer that the poisoned a while back? Last I heard he was locked up, doubtful he's a viable option.
 
Elon... what a muppet. Russia and LPR DPR chose violence rather than politics. There is zero reason to suggest this crap now. Don't get me wrong, I want to say 'yes' to musk's question because that's how democracy works, but this comes at a ridiculous point in time. Just wow.
 
Maple Leaf said:
They will get a beating after being arrested if they voluntarily surrendered:
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Not necessarily, Ukraine has a policy of not informing Russia of the details of any surrender. Plus actually surrendering could well be a reason in itself to apply for asylum if it was known you did so willingly.
Maple Leaf said:
Being a former national serviceman (automatically placed in the reserve thereafter) who was mobilised to be sent to attack a peaceful foreign country in an offensive war to capture their territory based upon a pack of lies is rather different to 'mobilised by his country as per his reserve commitments'.
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No, that the war is bad etc.. is separate from the fact that they're mobilised. AFAIK that isn't in itself a valid asylum claim in various EU countries.

Here are some statements to back that up:

Estonia's position:

www.reuters.com

Baltic nations say they will refuse refuge to Russians fleeing mobilisation

European Union members Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, which border Russia, will not offer refuge to any Russians fleeing Moscow's mobilisation of troops, their ministers said on Wednesday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
"A refusal to fulfil one’s civic duty in Russia or a desire to do so does not constitute sufficient grounds for being granted asylum in another country", Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu
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Finland's position (which I mentioned):

yle.fi

Interior Ministry: No increase in Russian asylum applications

Military service or mobilisation does not directly constitute grounds for the granting of international asylum, the ministry noted.
yle.fi yle.fi
Military service or mobilisation does not directly constitute grounds for the granting of international asylum. Asylum can however be granted if the applicant has a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons such as political opinion.

There may also be grounds for seeking protection if the applicant is forced to commit war crimes during military service. In addition, the refusal to serve must carry a punishment to meet the necessary criteria for asylum, the ministry said.

The Finnish government is currently preparing the introduction of a new measure aimed at further restricting the number of Russian tourists entering Finland, with the Ministry of the Interior one of the government departments involved in the preparations.
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It's going to be individual cases - someone who can show they were beaten or threatened etc.. might well have a claim, simply being mobilised isn't necessarily sufficient.
 
Maple Leaf said:
Of course, there are Ukrainian losses! Where did I imply there were not? Talk about a non sequitur.

Yes, it would be better for the chances of getting rid of Putin, if unwilling draftees hostile to the regime/war hid out in Russia and got ready to become part of a general uprising against the government, but in the meantime they would be in considerable danger.

I suppose you would advise them to go to war with the Russian government and firebomb draft offices, kill policemen/FSB agents/politicians etc. Well, that's all very well if you are a young single man with a hero complex/death wish, but it's not very helpful advice for a middle-aged married man with young kids or dependent sick elderly parents.

The most likely way Putin will get deposed is by one of his lieutenants murdering him and taking over (he could be even worse than Putin). The next most likely way is by a military coup d'etat, which would probably happen shortly after Putin loses in Ukraine and is humiliated. Rather like what happened to the last Tsar. :D
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I suspect the influence of the hardliners will continue to erode as Russia keeps suffering from setbacks.
 
I do wonder sometimes what motivates Musk when he tweets out stupid **** like this. Is he just a narcissist who needs the attention on twitter or does he have some other agenda?

Like there could be fair elections in those regions after Russia has killed and kidnapped god knows how many people loyal to Ukraine. Crimea belongs to Ukraine by treaty and a majority of Crimea voted to leave Russia back in 1991.
 
Colonel_Klinck said:
I do wonder sometimes what motivates Musk when he tweets out stupid **** like this. Is he just a narcissist who needs the attention on twitter or does he have some other agenda?

Like there could be fair elections in those regions after Russia has killed and kidnapped god knows how many people loyal to Ukraine. Crimea belongs to Ukraine by treaty and a majority of Crimea voted to leave Russia back in 1991.
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His stupid robot tanked so he is looking for likes.
 
Scougar said:
Elon... what a muppet. Russia and LPR DPR chose violence rather than politics. There is zero reason to suggest this crap now. Don't get me wrong, I want to say 'yes' to musk's question because that's how democracy works, but this comes at a ridiculous point in time. Just wow.
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Lost all respect for him ever since the trapped children in the cave in Thailand a few years back and his gross accusations towards one of the rescuers. No matter what amazing things he achieves with Space X - and they are incredible at times, I can never respect him as a human being because he repeatedly shows himself for what he is.
 
physichull said:
Lost all respect for him ever since the trapped children in the cave in Thailand a few years back and his gross accusations towards one of the rescuers. No matter what amazing things he achieves with Space X - and they are incredible at times, I can never respect him as a human being because he repeatedly shows himself for what he is.
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You have to remember he's autistic (actually Aspergers) so he does see things differently to everyone else sometimes and doesn't hold back.
 
ICDP said:
I know plenty of people who have aspergers who aren't total walts like Musk.
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How's he a total walt?

He might be a bit of a **** at times (this Ukraine poll thing being one of them) but he's not some weird fantasist "LARPing" at stuff, he's got real-world achievements.

physichull said:
Lost all respect for him ever since the trapped children in the cave in Thailand a few years back and his gross accusations towards one of the rescuers.
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That was more of a throwaway insult at a guy who was unnecessarily rude to him in the first place for helping out rather than a serious allegation.
 
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Yesterday the AFU pushed Russian forces some 35km back to Dudchany on the dnipro river, where they set up a defensive line.

Tonight it looks like the AFU have taken Dudchany with multiple unconfirmed reports on telegram stating RU forces retreated after coming under heavy attack. They blew a bridge up in the north of town but it will not stop the advance of the AFU.

"The Russian army left Dudchany on the Southern Front. There are no reinforcements. The situation is critical."
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"In the Beryslav direction, the armed forced of Ukraine were stopped near the dudchansky resevoir: the northern half on the other side is controlled by ukraine forces. The RF armed forces blew up the bridge during the withdrawal to prevent the armed forced of ukraine from continuing the offensive.
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Hardly a bridge and reports are it hasn't stopped the AFU and they have liberated dudchany.
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dowie said:
No, that the war is bad etc.. is separate from the fact that they're mobilised. AFAIK that isn't in itself a valid asylum claim in various EU countries.

Here are some statements to back that up:

Estonia's position:

www.reuters.com

Baltic nations say they will refuse refuge to Russians fleeing mobilisation

European Union members Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, which border Russia, will not offer refuge to any Russians fleeing Moscow's mobilisation of troops, their ministers said on Wednesday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Finland's position (which I mentioned):

yle.fi

Interior Ministry: No increase in Russian asylum applications

Military service or mobilisation does not directly constitute grounds for the granting of international asylum, the ministry noted.
yle.fi yle.fi

It's going to be individual cases - someone who can show they were beaten or threatened etc.. might well have a claim, simply being mobilised isn't necessarily sufficient.
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Well, refusing to fight in Ukraine in writing (but agreeing to be mobilised for other unrelated duties) should be enough for Finland then:

Under the amendments, Russians of compulsory military age or reservists will also face up to 10 years imprisonment if they refuse to take part in combat operations, the Kremlin said. Source
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The Baltic Nations' position looks like moral cowardice to me:

"A refusal to fulfil one’s civic duty in Russia or a desire to do so does not constitute sufficient grounds for being granted asylum in another country", Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu

Since when is it 'one's civic duty' to shoot, wound and kill Ukrainian civilians or bomb their homes/businesses etc? Conflating mandatory national service during peacetime (still used in many sensible EU countries) with mobilisation for an offensive war in a de facto dictatorship run by a paranoid psychopath is pretty craven!

Instead of dehumanising all Russians perhaps we should be trying to help those of them that are opposed to the war/Putin's regime. I mean can Estonia etc not see any merit in a Russian who refuses to be forced into the Army to invade a peaceful neighbouring country? (Obviously, having prima facie evidence that they formally refused to engage in fighting the Ukraine war and were looking at prison time would make the case more simple, but it would be impractical to obtain in most cases.)
 
diamount said:
Let's stop derailing the topic with discussions about the Muskrat please.
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Sorry one more

Ukraine’s presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak has mocked Elon Musk for suggesting that Kyiv should accept Russia’s annexation of Crimea in return for an end to the war.

Podolyak tweeted in response:

Let’s vote?

  • Yes
    94.2%

  • No
    5.8%
 
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