Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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NickK said:
Drones have been a massive player in this war. Even now with all the winged death flying about, the store bought drone dropping grenades on tanks and troops trying to unload munitions. This is an infantry war, up close and personal. It's not the war from a distance of Iraq etc.
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Yes - they are like precision mortar rounds, under normal circumstances a quick to dig shell scrape gives you good protection from Arty and Mortar fire, but now infantry need to dig full overhead protection to be safe - that takes a lot of time and defence stores to do. Very difficult threat to deal with.
 
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Rroff said:
From various articles I've read it seems Russia doesn't have the institutional teaching, knowledge, experience, mindset or structure for massive, complex layered, combined arms operations with their focus over the years on smaller scale insurgency stuff or total war with the West and less so anything in between.
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I agree - I think Russia can either have large relatively poorly equipped and certainly poorly trained army. Or it can have a small well equipped and well trained one, but it can't be big and high quality.
 
chaparral said:
It would be funny if this happened :cry:


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While it doesn't mean it would function as intended - with the level of surveillance and espionage involved it is as expensive if nor more so and hugely more difficult (to contain leaks of the truth, etc.) to fake having a nuclear arsenal which at least appears to be working than it is to actually have one.
 
Grim5 said:
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I saw that, looks like Ukraine may encircle the city and cut off the remaining Russians to the north between the two arms of the pincer.

With the river to their backs, they will be stuck with nowhere to run.

Lovely arrow in paint showing what I mean.

z3Msank.png
 
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HungryHippos said:
I saw that, looks like Ukraine may encircle the city and cut off the remaining Russians to the north between the two arms of the pincer.

With the river to their backs, they will be stuck with nowhere to run.
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Ukraine has made several attempts at the crossing at the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant - risky strategy but they may be hoping they can put enough pressure on the main supply arteries at the rear it will precipitate a withdrawal of Russia troops wholesale.
 
Rroff said:
Ukraine has made several attempts at the crossing at the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant - risky strategy but they may be hoping they can put enough pressure on the main supply arteries at the rear it will precipitate a withdrawal of Russia troops wholesale.
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This guy thinks that there is a 3rd front being broken which will cut them off even further near Mariupol. Completely unconfirmed of course, but if so, then you have the rout at Kherson, another near Severodonetsk, and a 3rd splitting them down the middle.

 
HungryHippos said:
This guy thinks that there is a 3rd front being broken which will cut them off even further near Mariupol. Completely unconfirmed of course, but if so, then you have the rout at Kherson, another near Severodonetsk, and a 3rd splitting them down the middle.

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There will come a point that Ukraine will make a move on Crimea. I’m sure the plans are being put together now if they haven’t already.
 
delta0 said:
There will come a point that Ukraine will make a move on Crimea. I’m sure the plans are being put together now if they haven’t already.
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I think so as well but I also suspect they will want to leave that route open to let Russians escape, ideally without any equipment. Give them an out and they are less likely to stand and fight to the death.

If Kherson falls then I think Crimea will start to look extremely vulnerable.

Unconfirmed Russian sources saying there is a breakthrough heading to Beryslav as well.

 
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Colonel_Klinck said:
Why not? He invaded in 2014 and nothing happened. The EU, UK and US weren't interested in actively supporting Ukraine. This time he gambled that Biden wouldn't be interested and Germany and other EU nations wouldn't be either because they want his gas. He gambled and he lost big. He also expected to take the country in a matter of days/weeks and then it would have been a fait accompli. Again he gambled and lost.

I just don't get why lots of people in this thread think nukes are going to start flying. He isn't suicidal, he has children and he values his position because the alternative is death. He can end this at any time and call it what ever he likes back home and the people will buy it. If he nukes Ukraine the West will have to retaliate and will likely wipe out Russian military assets in Ukraine and then add Ukraine to NATO. Russia will have not only lost but will be a pariah for decades to come. There is no way back from nukes and Putin knows this as do his generals and his backers in Moscow. I'll be amazed if he uses nukes.
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If he's backed into a corner he'll probably think he has no other choice especially as he's already upped the stakes "I'm not bluffing" he's not Liz Truss he can't simply U-turn 180 degrees and say I didn't really mean it I was only kidding, honest. If he backs down he'll look weak and that for him in his position means he's finished. He's not likely to launch ICBM's and drop nukes on western capitals, no. But low yield weapons on ukranian soil, yeah I can see that happening.
 
Blackjack Davy said:
If he's backed into a corner he'll probably think he has no other choice especially as he's already upped the stakes "I'm not bluffing" he's not Liz Truss he can't simply U-turn 180 degrees and say I didn't really mean it I was only kidding, honest. If he backs down he'll look weak and that for him in his position means he's finished. He's not likely to launch ICBM's and drop nukes on western capitals, no. But low yield weapons on ukranian soil, yeah I can see that happening.
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I mean even if this does happen I feel it will be a bit of an anticlimax. A single tactical nuclear device will have limited lasting impact. I feel for the lads on the front having to fight in CBRN kit though.
 
HungryHippos said:
Beryslav (near Mariupol)
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Which Beryslav? - the one on the Dnipro is not that near Mariupol - by all reports they are falling back from the one near Dnipro which would mean Ukraine is quite a lot further down that arm than any of the maps. Also reports they've pushed well on down the T1505 a good 30km further than reported! (might be action by resistance being mistaken for the Ukraine army).

EDIT: I think someone is mixing up with T1508 and T1505 - OSINT reports are that Ukraine is putting pressure on Snihurivka and the T1505 is south of that.

EDIT2: Even that doesn't make sense looking at the latest maps - I'm guessing it must be some kind of resistance or special forces stuff or Ukraine really has rolled over Snihurivka and beyond in a matter of hours.
 
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Rroff said:
Which Beryslav? - the one on the Dnipro is not that near Mariupol - by all reports they are falling back from the one near Dnipro which would mean Ukraine is quite a lot further down that arm than any of the maps. Also reports they've pushed well on down the T1505 a good 30km further than reported! (might be action by resistance being mistaken for the Ukraine army).
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Ah yes sorry, the one on the Dnipro, not the one near Mariupol :)
 
Rroff said:
I guess it makes sense in Ukrainian but they have some confusing duplication of the same names across different Oblasts.
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Yep that's what confused me a bit as I saw another one! :D

Either way, it sounds like it's chaos/hell over there for the Russians at the moment, I hope they see sense and surrender Kherson relatively pain free.
 
It is weird - Western sources are showing a picture like this:


But Russian sources are talking of Ukraine already being well down those arrows as per that map - confusing as to which is accurate or whether Russians are either in general panic or trying to exaggerate the situation in hope of getting reinforcements quicker.
 
Rroff said:
EDIT2: Even that doesn't make sense looking at the latest maps - I'm guessing it must be some kind of resistance or special forces stuff or Ukraine really has rolled over Snihurivka and beyond in a matter of hours.
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This guy also reports, once again even more unconfirmed, that indeed Snihurivka is (potentially) toast.

 
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Rroff said:
It is weird - Western sources are showing a picture like this:


But Russian sources are talking of Ukraine already being well down those arrows as per that map - confusing as to which is accurate or whether Russians are either in general panic or trying to exaggerate the situation in hope of getting reinforcements quicker.
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I’m not sure western sources are going to show precise information or the most advanced points of troop movements.
 
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