Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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chaparral said:
How do you guys think this war is going end ?
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My guess for the ending is that Ukraine manage to push Russia back to Crimea, at which point Putin makes it categorically clear he will defend it with nuclear weapons. This results in lots of negotiations including Ukraine, Russia and the big players in the EU/NATO, possibly also China.

Either this results in Ukraine begrudgingly seceding Crimea in order to finally bring the war to an end, or they refuse and instead an armistice agreement is made freezing the war in it's current position (the same "ending" as the Korean War), the latter option giving Ukraine the moral victory that they haven't given up on Crimea.

Of course how we get there is anybody's guess, Ukraine are smashing right now but how long will they be able to keep it up, how far can they push before winter stops them in their tracks and allows Russia to regroup? Do they see this inevitability and start taking heavier losses in order to ramp up the smashing? It seems Russia is just trying now to push the war into next year so their increasing production can make a difference but will it when the west are stepping up support to match.


SkyTerran said:
If a new ruler comes to power in Russia, or a civil war starts there it will be a lot easier for Ukraine to go back to it's 1991 borders.
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Ideally they would want the 1995 borders back.
 
ubersonic said:
My guess for the ending is that Ukraine manage to push Russia back to Crimea, at which point Putin makes it categorically clear he will defend it with nuclear weapons. This results in lots of negotiations including Ukraine, Russia and the big players in the EU/NATO, possibly also China.
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The boy who cried wolf springs to mind. As if anyone is going to believe them.
 
This is simply wrong. Intelligence analysts may look at the map of Southern Ukraine and see distances; military planners will apply the military math and see something very different. They know that to crush the Russian army and strangle the troops in frontline fortifications, they don’t need to advance 50 miles. 10 miles will do it.


Why? Because although it would be great if Ukrainian troops broke through to the shores of the Sea of Azov, they do not have to. Instead, they can achieve a significant operational outcome by bringing Russia’s ground line of communication (GLOC) under their guns.


On or around August 22, Ukraine’s troops liberated the village of Robotyne, some 90km (around 55 miles) from the Sea of Azov, a major accomplishment given the enormous efforts of the Russian invaders to fortify and hold it.


From here, the Ukrainians need to advance by a further 10–15 km (7–10 miles), in order to range their guns on Russia’s east-west transport routes that are critical to the ability of its army and armed forces to fight. If Ukraine can interdict these road and rail links, it’s very hard to see how the Russian army can continue to fight.


This will not be easy, but it’s reasonable to think it will happen. This will be achieved using its indirect capability — first the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), whose reach is about 80km-90km, and later its 155 mm artillery with a range of over 40km. These are hugely more capable than Ukraine’s pre-war 152mm Soviet-style artillery that have a range of only 17–20 km.
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cepa.org

Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think

Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making substantial progress. Russia’s generals will know this, even if the West doesn’t.
cepa.org cepa.org
 
Harlequin said:
Russia will be forced out, they have chewed through the bulk of proffesional soldiers, the young are doing everything to avoid conscription, the fighting vehicle reserves are scrap yard quailty and the defenses are broken
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Am guessing that be the same for Ukraine as their also going to only have a limited amount of the best fighters

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Harlequin said:
Not really, Russia has chewed through their professional army , and is now throwing conscripts at the problem. This isnt the 1970`s.
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While this is true, it shouldn't be viewed in vacuum, remember that it was only a few weeks before the invasion began that Zelenskyy signed the decree to create a professional army for Ukraine, at that time they had <200k servicemen in the countries entire military (the goal was to eventually bring Ukraine's armed forces to 361,000 personnel, but obviously something happened in early 2022 to accelerate plans) of which ~125k was the army.

Ukraine has had a big advantage from defending in that they have lost a lot less soldiers so their original army plus the new volunteers will have gained a lot of experience very quickly, however while Russia have had to seriously bolster their ranks with volunteers/conscripts it's not like Ukraine magically has a massive force of seasoned Desert Storm veterans, a lot of their guys are fresh-ish too, just they chose to be there.
 
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chaparral said:
Am guessing that be the same for Ukraine as their also going to only have a limited amount of the best fighters

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Ukraine has a problem currently in that they are throwing what is left of their professional reserves in to cycle out other units to rest - many of their professional soldiers are exhausted. That leaves territorial/volunteer/irregular forces next to take over when they need to cycle out regular units and they are far less experienced or equipped for the job.

Unless the West steps up to enable Ukraine to utilise more sophistication against Russia on the battlefield there is a real risk of Ukraine losing the man power attrition war. Ukraine has an OK reserve of territorial, etc. forces left but it isn't a resource they can be careless with.

chaparral said:
How do you guys think this war is going end ?
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I can't see much potential for any kind of good or even least bad outcomes any time soon. Russia has the means to keep scraping by for awhile yet and slowly increasing their production capabilities to sustain it. A lot will depend on the political situation in the West.
 
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Russia is busy erasing Wagner, removing signage from its building and even its cemeteries. Saw a video showing machines demolishing the Wagner graveyard, all the headstones and flags gone

From the "heroes of Bakhmut" to nobodies, erased from history. Russian books will never even mention them, in a few years the word Wagner will only be remembered for the composer

I wonder where this leaves Russia's African allies, since Putin was happy to let Wagner sell Russian military services to them and now they are gone
 
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Grim5 said:
Russia is busy erasing Wagner, removing signage from its building and even its cemeteries. Saw a video showing machines demolishing the Wagner graveyard, all the headstones and flags gone

From the "heroes of Bakhmut" to nobodies, erased from history. Russian books will never even mention them, in a few years the word Wagner will only be remembered for the composer

I wonder where this leaves Russia's African allies, since Putin was happy to let Wagner sell Russian military services to them and now they are gone
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Putin just grieving hard for the accidental loss of his dear friend. The reminders are too painful for him.


:p
 
Grim5 said:
Russia is busy erasing Wagner, removing signage from its building and even its cemeteries. Saw a video showing machines demolishing the Wagner graveyard, all the headstones and flags gone

From the "heroes of Bakhmut" to nobodies, erased from history. Russian books will never even mention them, in a few years the word Wagner will only be remembered for the composer

I wonder where this leaves Russia's African allies, since Putin was happy to let Wagner sell Russian military services to them and now they are gone
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Whilst I have zero respect for Wagner forces, their families/friends/comrades should still have some way of remembering their fallen. Putin showing time and time again of his complete absence of morals. Should be another striking reminder to the rest of the Russian forces how much value is placed on people fighting for his cause... Wont make an iota of difference though.

Cant see it having much if any real world effect on their activities in Africa, I reckon the only change will be who they report to.
I mean lets face it. Wagners activities in Africa were always directly related to Russian government trying to exert influence in the region, and to destabilise Western power/influence in the region. I think you can also look at it as a resource grab. Both Russia and China have been making inroads into Africa in recent years to secure significant natural resources on the continent.
Not only does this result in less influence in the region by western countries it also possibly disrupts resources for them in the future, leaving us possibly more reliant on China/Russia in the future.
A destabilised/hostile Africa can become a very big problem for us in the future. Especially as resources dwindle.
 
steve45 said:
Whilst I have zero respect for Wagner forces, their families/friends/comrades should still have some way of remembering their fallen. Putin showing time and time again of his complete absence of morals. Should be another striking reminder to the rest of the Russian forces how much value is placed on people fighting for his cause... Wont make an iota of difference though.

Cant see it having much if any real world effect on their activities in Africa, I reckon the only change will be who they report to.
I mean lets face it. Wagners activities in Africa were always directly related to Russian government trying to exert influence in the region, and to destabilise Western power/influence in the region. I think you can also look at it as a resource grab. Both Russia and China have been making inroads into Africa in recent years to secure significant natural resources on the continent.
Not only does this result in less influence in the region by western countries it also possibly disrupts resources for them in the future, leaving us possibly more reliant on China/Russia in the future.
A destabilised/hostile Africa can become a very big problem for us in the future. Especially as resources dwindle.
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Money talks and a destabiliszed / hostile Africa will bend over backwards once we start throwing cash their way.

It's the same with every single corrupt regime, ever.

Africa will never be a "big problem" for the west, ever.
 
Wagner will probably be absorbed into PMC Potok though Russia's ministry for emergency situations seemed to be taking over control of remaining Wagner forces and equipment.
 
Devilman said:
Money talks and a destabiliszed / hostile Africa will bend over backwards once we start throwing cash their way.

It's the same with every single corrupt regime, ever.

Africa will never be a "big problem" for the west, ever.
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Floods of refugees from a destabilised Africa could end up being a very big problem for Europe.
 
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