I don't like Russians, I could sit and list everything that's wrong with their culture, I probably did that when the movie Icarus came out in 2017 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icarus_(2017_film). Needless to say Russians don't consider cheating to be bad unless you actually get caught, they have high levels of corruption, Putin is obviously just a gangster and always has been, a lot of Russians can generally be disinterested rude and aggressive. I could go, but I've disliked Russia for longer than most of the people in this thread. With that said, Russia has won this war. You might not like it but the only way Russian troops leave Ukraine is if the US military kicks them out, because no one else is capable.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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I don't like Russians, I could sit and list everything that's wrong with their culture, I probably did that when the movie Icarus came out in 2017 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icarus_(2017_film). Needless to say Russians don't consider cheating to be bad unless you actually get caught, they have high levels of corruption, Putin is obviously just a gangster and always has been, a lot of Russians can generally be disinterested rude and aggressive. I could go, but I've disliked Russia for longer than most of the people in this thread. With that said, Russia has won this war. You might not like it but the only way Russian troops leave Ukraine is if the US military kicks them out, because no one else is capable.
Sooo, identical to northern England then?
Please explain your conditions for Russia having won.
As of right now, the ONLY thing that is really holding back the AFU is mines.
How exactly do you think they're going to win? Because unless something completely unexpected happens their ongoing 18 month defeat is just going to get worse and worse for them.
It's gotten to the point now where it's going so bad that even if nothing improves for Ukraine then Russia will still lose simply because current loss rates will result in the population of Russia being depleted before the population of Ukraine is.
Lots more juicy Western hardware is going to find its way into Ukrainian hands pretty soon, as well. Meanwhile, Russia is begging North Korea for whatever they can spare.
They've certainly not won, but as things stand Ukraine will lose the man power war of attrition before Russia does if the West doesn't step up more. And potentially it isn't as simple as kicking Russia out, there is also keeping them out, though things like NATO membership might help there.
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The funniest part about this is that they're apparently mainly after North Korea knockoffs of the Soviet Scud missiles, because Russia no longer have the ability to produce them and their supply of newer Tochka and Iskander missiles is depleting faster than they can produce them xD
For reference the UAE bought a bunch of NK's knockoff Scuds in 1989, they binned them as they were so poor
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Ignoring the fact the west are stepping up more, how do you figure that?
Russia has ~three times the amount of men for potential recruitment/conscription but in order for that to be an advantage you need to be taking less than three times the casualties, they are not, they are very very not.
*EDIT*
For those interested in the full math there:
Russia
Population: 143,400,000
% female: 54
Amount male: 65,964,000
% 18-65: 61
Total men: 40,238,040
Ukraine:
Population: 43,790,000
% female: 54
Amount male: 20,143,400
% 18-65: 66
Total men: 13,294,644
Russia have three times the maximum recruit-able/conscript-able man power, but they're taking like 10x the casualties, that is simply not sustainable.
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The west should just send in all our air assets and finish off job.
Russia like a wounded deer at the side of the road begging to be ended.
Do a lot of people a favour in the long run, only problem is everyone scared of the nuke threat.
Russia like a wounded deer at the side of the road begging to be ended.
Do a lot of people a favour in the long run, only problem is everyone scared of the nuke threat.
Well, Russia control the Donbas and they've secured a land bridge to Crimea. Those were pretty much Putins strategic objectives and unless something drastic happens in the next few weeks that'll remain the case for the rest of this year. The longer the war goes on, the more Russia will grow into it in terms of recruitment, training, and digging in to their positions.
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It is good you're not in charge of making these types of decisions.
1: Russia have controlled the Donbas/Luhanks regions they currently hold since 2014, it's just previously they were held by "Ukrainian separatists" loyal to Putin, this war has actually made their Donbas position worse for them as they're now under constant fire.
2: The land bridge to Crimea wasn't needed before because of the actual bridge to Crimea, ironically this war has made it needed due to said bridge repeatedly catching a nasty case of explosions.
3: No they were not Putin's strategic objectives, maybe he fell back to holding that territory as an objective once the first 50 objectives fell through but no that was not an objective when he started the war.
4: Honestly this is comical Ali levels of denial at this point xD
Is it really reinforcing when they basically emptied out the base just a few months ago to send everything to ukraine
Poland looks to finalise its HIMARS deal with the US tomorrow
They originally wanted to buy 486 launch platforms from the US but the US can't supply that fast enough, so now it looks like the US will supply some full launch systems in addition to the 18 that have already been delivered. But many of the 468 launchers will come in the form of Poland's own truck chassis, the US will send them the launch pods and Poland will mount them onto its own trucks and Poland will also start manufacturing the GMLRS ammunition itself
They originally wanted to buy 486 launch platforms from the US but the US can't supply that fast enough, so now it looks like the US will supply some full launch systems in addition to the 18 that have already been delivered. But many of the 468 launchers will come in the form of Poland's own truck chassis, the US will send them the launch pods and Poland will mount them onto its own trucks and Poland will also start manufacturing the GMLRS ammunition itself
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Ukraine is switching to the offensive, the casualty ratio will change, Ukraine depends a lot on being able to use sophistication, which is enabled via Western supplied equipment and the training to use it, to maintain an advantage and the West just isn't working to a high enough scale or pace to offset the bleed - in the longer run there wouldn't be the man power there to use the equipment. The casualty ratio is not 10x in Ukraine's favour though the exact numbers are unknown - also somewhat complicated due to differences in medical care meaning a higher number of Ukrainian casualties will recover to return to the battlefield or to man critical non-combat roles.
Ukraine needs to be able to preserve as many of its experienced and trained soldiers as possible in the weeks and months ahead to avoid fighting Russia on more equal terms which is something Russia can sustain longer. For that the West needs to step up hugely when it comes to things like artillery sophistication and the ammo to apply it, air-defences and so on.
You are using pre-war population figures as well, albeit for Ukraine the population decrease is largely females and children who have evacuated but Ukraine's population has decreased by ~7 million since this war started, Russia has seen a decrease of ~600K - of which a little over half that are fighting fit males. That has implications for Ukraine as there are less people to step up to critical civilian and support roles to free up people who are fighting fit for military service, albeit Ukraine is less dependant on domestic production to sustain the war effort but Russia is also looking to ties with the likes of North Korea to keep military production going.
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Oh dear, the Russians really don’t learn, do they?
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Even if you take what the Russians have achieved as 'success', it's come at an enormous cost in manpower, equipment, prestige and the economy.
It might seem like the Russians have time on their side, but that is more time for their economy to suffer - the same doesn't apply to Ukraine as its allies are paying it's bills, it doesn't have to self finance. In many wars before, the defending nation has just had to keep resisting until the invading nation tires of the expense and losses and decides it's just not worth it and walks away. Ukraine just needs to keep it painful for Russia.
Before this war, Russia was considered a serious threat and the No2 military power - I don't think it can be viewed in the same way now as it has to go cap in hand to NK and Iran for help.
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