AMD Zen 6 rumours

[jigger]

Has anyone got trends of CPU marketshare over last few decades? this reminds me of old days when Athlon CPUs took hold and pretty much dominated intel for a while. I bet it would just look like a poor sine wave but with two market leaders that's what you get - with one having issued, the other is cashing in big time.

Glad AMD is not sitting still and continues with development work.

AMD have never dominated the market, never even come close that I can remember. Intel sell that many CPUs, they dominate the graphics market by over 90% simply because of the numbers using their IGPs.

4 out of every 5 laptops sold are Intel. 3 out of 5 desktops are Intel. Server and data centre’s is where Intel start to look a little weak, but Intel still outsells AMD by a healthy 2 to 1 there. The semiconductor market is all Intel and market will remain that way.

 

[humbug]

I think its still also the case that Intel are trying to keep AMD out of OEM markets, like practically giving these chips away for very low or zero margins.

End of 2020 Intel had $23.9 Billion in cash and cash equivalents with long term debt of $36 Billion
End of 2024 they had $7.1 Billion in cash and cash equivalents with long term debt of $50 Billion

And this is with them getting Billions in corporate welfare from the Biden government, where has it all gone?

End of 2020 AMD had $2.29 Billion in cash and cash equivalents with long term debt of $0.39 Billion
End of 2024 they had $5.32 Billion in cash and cash equivalents with long term debt of $1.71 Billion

When Tan said Intel are no longer in the top 10 for semiconductor companies he isn't kidding.

By Market Cap Intel rank 17'th with $99.45 Billion

The Top 10 are as follows:

#1 Nvidia: $4.219 Trillion (some little GPU company or something)
#2 Broadcom: $1.347 Trillion (big in all sorts of datacentre stuffs)
#3 TSMC: $$1.273 Trillion (They make all our chips)
#4 Samsung: $317 Billion (I like their phones)
#5 ASML: $293 Billion (They make the UV machines critical for the latest nodes TSMC use)
#6 AMD: $260 Billion (no idea who these guys are)
#7 Texas Instruments: $196 Billion (quite a lot of chips that aren't CPU's or GPU's, that's these guys)
#8 Qualcomm: $168 Billion (Microsoft thinks these guys will free them from the X86 tyranny by emulating X86)
#9 ARM Holdings: $166 Billion (every Smart Phone has one, Qualcomm would not exist without them)
#10 Applied Materials: $154 Billion ( ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ )

This needs updating.

#5 AMD: $286 Billion (Up)
#6 ASML: $271 Billion (Down)

Intel are down to $86 Billion but hold at 17'th, Media Tek are getting close tho.

Not much chance of AMD catching Samsung, they are now $333 Billion

 

[TrixP10]

AMD have never dominated the market, never even come close that I can remember. Intel sell that many CPUs, they dominate the graphics market by over 90% simply because of the numbers using their IGPs.

4 out of every 5 laptops sold are Intel. 3 out of 5 desktops are Intel. Server and data centre’s is where Intel start to look a little weak, but Intel still outsells AMD by a healthy 2 to 1 there. The semiconductor market is all Intel and market will remain that way.

that is changing fast and selling at a loss can't continue for much longer.

 

[humbug]

that is changing fast and selling at a loss can't continue for much longer.

This, there is a market for Intel but not at a loss just to try and fail to keep AMD down, Intel is a company that could turn a profit but they will have to swallow their pride and let some marketshare go.

No one wants to see Intel out of it but they will have to stop their silly little turf war and accept they lost, or they will bankrupt themselves.

OEM's and SI's are going to be really annoyed because it means the end of cheap CPU's and marketing paid for.

 

[Capitano]

AMD have never dominated the market, never even come close that I can remember. Intel sell that many CPUs, they dominate the graphics market by over 90% simply because of the numbers using their IGPs.

4 out of every 5 laptops sold are Intel. 3 out of 5 desktops are Intel. Server and data centre’s is where Intel start to look a little weak, but Intel still outsells AMD by a healthy 2 to 1 there. The semiconductor market is all Intel and market will remain that way.

Those intel numbers are actually getting worse and worse each year though

 

[jigger]

that is changing fast and selling at a loss can't continue for much longer.

It’s almost certainly not going to change. To give some idea of the sheer scale of the task to topple Intel, if AMD bought TSMC (all of TSMC) and allocated all wafer capacity to itself, Intel would still be able to out produce AMD by a factor of maybe twenty.

What AMD have achieved over the last ten years is to bring down the cost per core to a point Intel aren’t accustomed to operating at while increasing its processor performance metrics beyond anything Intel can reach. AMD had to become very lean and flexible to do this but it’s taken some time to bring any real results because Intel has the unique ability to sell complete garbage for a profit, because without Intel the semiconductor market simply implodes as only Intel has the capacity to service demand. AMD will continue to make inroads particularly in the professional market, but the markets overall will remain with Intel.

 

[TrixP10]

It’s almost certainly not going to change. To give some idea of the sheer scale of the task to topple Intel, if AMD bought TSMC (all of TSMC) and allocated all wafer capacity to itself, Intel would still be able to out produce AMD by a factor of maybe twenty.

What AMD have achieved over the last ten years is to bring down the cost per core to a point Intel aren’t accustomed to operating at while increasing its processor performance metrics beyond anything Intel can reach. AMD had to become very lean and flexible to do this but it’s taken some time to bring any real results because Intel has the unique ability to sell complete garbage for a profit, because without Intel the semiconductor market simply implodes as only Intel has the capacity to service demand. AMD will continue to make inroads particularly in the professional market, but the markets overall will remain with Intel.

selling garbage for profit to selling garbage as garbage. Intel's FABs have been overtaken so have many of their designs. That leaves . . . . . .
Just look at the huge losses over the last 18 months. Even Dell has responded to it's corporate customers and now ships AMD business machines. The $ and favours have run out. Of course there will be a place for Intel but it's a long long way from it's current position.

 

[Pelsepup]

It’s almost certainly not going to change. To give some idea of the sheer scale of the task to topple Intel, if AMD bought TSMC (all of TSMC) and allocated all wafer capacity to itself, Intel would still be able to out produce AMD by a factor of maybe twenty.

What AMD have achieved over the last ten years is to bring down the cost per core to a point Intel aren’t accustomed to operating at while increasing its processor performance metrics beyond anything Intel can reach. AMD had to become very lean and flexible to do this but it’s taken some time to bring any real results because Intel has the unique ability to sell complete garbage for a profit, because without Intel the semiconductor market simply implodes as only Intel has the capacity to service demand. AMD will continue to make inroads particularly in the professional market, but the markets overall will remain with Intel.

Just took quick look at wikipedia about intel fabs.

Would have to dig up from internet, but they have lots of fabs, but how many of them produce (development and research wafers don't count in this race)"modern" (is it 10nm, 7nm, 5nm, or what ?) cpus and how much ?
Got dizzy when i started to dig it up, because Ai couldn't give answer.

 

[RBImGuy]

It’s almost certainly not going to change. To give some idea of the sheer scale of the task to topple Intel, if AMD bought TSMC (all of TSMC) and allocated all wafer capacity to itself, Intel would still be able to out produce AMD by a factor of maybe twenty.

What AMD have achieved over the last ten years is to bring down the cost per core to a point Intel aren’t accustomed to operating at while increasing its processor performance metrics beyond anything Intel can reach. AMD had to become very lean and flexible to do this but it’s taken some time to bring any real results because Intel has the unique ability to sell complete garbage for a profit, because without Intel the semiconductor market simply implodes as only Intel has the capacity to service demand. AMD will continue to make inroads particularly in the professional market, but the markets overall will remain with Intel.

amd has 50% of server space atm and its going up.
thats a 40% increase from amd so, they dont have an issue filling demand.

 

[jigger]

amd has 50% of server space atm and its going up.
thats a 40% increase from amd so, they dont have an issue filling demand.

AMD had 50% briefly, but that quickly fell to 35% When AMD hit 50% it was because of a shortage and the increased demand in supplying the DC market actually did mean shortages in other markets. I believe AMD are now touching 37% in the professional market which is very impressive in such a short space of time.

AMD simply can’t supply enough chips without taking very serious risks and rapid growth in one market can result in shortages. That’s long been AMDs issue even when they operated AMD Dresden. AMD committed 2.1 billion to wafer allocation at Gloflo in 2022 to 2025 and I believe that deal was further increased.

 

[Curlyriff]

AMD had 50% briefly, but that quickly fell to 35% When AMD hit 50% it was because of a shortage and the increased demand in supplying the DC market actually did mean shortages in other markets. I believe AMD are now touching 37% in the professional market which is very impressive in such a short space of time.

AMD simply can’t supply enough chips without taking very serious risks and rapid growth in one market can result in shortages. That’s long been AMDs issue even when they operated AMD Dresden. AMD committed 2.1 billion to wafer allocation at Gloflo in 2022 to 2025 and I believe that deal was further increased.

The expectation is that Intel will drop to 55% by end of the year (AMD is currently 33% as of June and looking to be at the 37% at end of the year ), Intel are expected to drop below 50% by 2027 and AMD up to 40% with the other 10% being ARM is the current expectations.

I believe this is where people are reading into the 50% market share though which clearly isn't a solid statistic or correct.

Fudzilla AMD Market Share

 

[jigger]

The expectation is that Intel will drop to 55% by end of the year (AMD is currently 33% as of June and looking to be at the 37% at end of the year ), Intel are expected to drop below 50% by 2027 and AMD up to 40% with the other 10% being ARM is the current expectations.

I believe this is where people are reading into the 50% market share though which clearly isn't a solid statistic or correct.

Fudzilla AMD Market Share

Yeah, maybe 40% is doable in few years, Intel are seeing a bit of a resurgence with its Xeon parts though. Weather that remains after Zen6/7 is the question and AMD might see more value in mobile chips where Intel are very strong.

 

[Capitano]

I predict we will start seeing a sharp spike once the older W10 devices go EOL and people will need to replace them soon. AMD options seem like the better option even on prebuilds