Afghanistan - 20 years on

[Tefal]

Not really. The Western forces had to fight with one hand tied behind their backs by the red tape of the Geneva Convention and other such human rights treaties. The Chinese don't give a **** about any of that rubbish, they'll kerb stomp the Taliban, and any civilians, if they start to cause any serious problems for them.

That's much more the American view "**** yeah let's kick their asses!!"

China is more likely to just not demand any political or cultural change from them so simply exist peaceably

 

[Tefal]

It is hard to imagine the Taleban will be impressed by China's treatment of the Uighurs in Xinjiang.

Why? The Taleban aren't exactly known for thier good treatment of other muslims

 

[Johno please?]

It is hard to imagine the Taleban will be impressed by China's treatment of the Uighurs in Xinjiang.

They (like other muslim fanatics) kill other muslims all the time.

What amazes me is the amount of funding and supplies the Taliban are getting from elsewhere, Pakistan we know for sure and god knows where else.

 

[Tuppy_Glossop]

What would have been sensible is replacing the opium crops with cotton, perfectly viable crop for the region but the USA will not fund anything that will compete with its own farmers. So opium is the only thing they can grow and sell

The USA encouraged cotton growing in Helmand in 2012 but it coincided with a global price slump so they went back to poppies with a higher value. There is currently a push to provide the knowledge, skills, and equipment to make fruit and veg a viable alternative.

 

[GreyHam]

Sad state of affairs. A friend of mine did 2 tours in Afghanistan and lost a lot of friends over there. Really does seem like it was for no tangible benefit.

 

[Tuppy_Glossop]

Why? The Taleban aren't exactly known for thier good treatment of other muslims

Muslim on muslim is one thing, infidel on muslim is another. Although, no muslim-majority states have joined the western condemnation of China, which is amazing to me.

 

[robgmun]

Muslim on muslim is one thing, infidel on Muslim is another. Although, no muslim-majority states have joined the western condemnation of China, which is amazing to me.

Because as said before, China has zero ***** to give and will kerb stomp any Muslim group that tries it on, like that time in western China when two police officers got killed in a terrorist attack. Resulting in the Chinese army flooding the area and killing 200 Muslims when they tried to riot.

Or when 10,000 Muslims just crossed the border into China in the North and set up camp. The army was sent in, hundreds were arrested and "disappeared" and the rest were fleeing back over the border.

 

[Dis86]

Muslim on muslim is one thing, infidel on muslim is another. Although, no muslim-majority states have joined the western condemnation of China, which is amazing to me.

Remember, the west is evil. You know, the countries where Muslims are free to integrate and practice their religion safely. China though, China good.

 

[gettothechopper]

The USA encouraged cotton growing in Helmand in 2012 but it coincided with a global price slump so they went back to poppies with a higher value. There is currently a push to provide the knowledge, skills, and equipment to make fruit and veg a viable alternative.

The book "Little America" has a good section about this - one of the problems was the US worried that afghan cotton would damage US sales of cotton

Also the guy earlier who mentioned "Afgantsy" - an excellent book, for anyone wanting to understand the pre-taliban days some of the stuff is mind blowing (Storm 333)

Also "The Places in Between" by Rory Stewart is the best look at life on the ground in the middle of nowhere in Afghanistan

Its a shame Biden decided to carry on with the pull out, just the continuing small deployment was providing limited stability, I worry we will see Iraq 2014 style collapse of the ANA now

 

[lemonkettaz]

If ever in the future the Chinese end up having a pop at the Taliban or vice versa, I am sure the US/West will be secretly "assisting" resistance to any Chinese armed forces.

China could probably go with a bit of kinetic action on the ground, give them a bit of experience for when they decide to take on the US directly. Just the west helped Afghans fight the Soviets, no doubt they would help in another proxy environment.

Other than that, even if/when the Taliban are running the show in Kabul, we won't take any notice, as long as the Chinese/Russians aren't doing any heavy lifting.

What did it all achieve? A few tour bonuses and medals for lads/lasses over the last 20years.. many horrific life-changing injuries and tragically 456 British deaths. Luckily I only endured the funeral of 1 person KIA.

 

[doodah]

We often measure impacts and outcomes at work, what was it for this?

Wasted lives, money and constantly shifting goalposts. Utterly pointless.

 

[gettothechopper]

Ill have a go:

Stopped Afghanistan being used as a safe haven for AQ
6 Sets of democratic elections
Kabul is no longer a smoking ruin, buildings, electricity, communications lines etc. restored
Millions of children educated (including girls which were not able to before)
Big lift in GDP

Even these few things could be undone now though,

However - The Taliban and ISIS are not equivalent - we may see collapse of the current system with the Taliban back in charge, that doesn't necessarily mean we see the horror that ISIS inflicted on Iraq? (I hope not anyway, although I'm sure many things will return to the very hardline ways of pre 2001)

 

[Malevolence]

The Taliban will be back in charge of the country within six months to a year. The Afghan army that the US trained up and armed are already defecting and joining the Taliban or they're running away scared to the nearest border.

 

[Rroff]

However - The Taliban and ISIS are not equivalent - we may see collapse of the current system with the Taliban back in charge, that doesn't necessarily mean we see the horror that ISIS inflicted on Iraq? (I hope not anyway, although I'm sure many things will return to the very hardline ways of pre 2001)

The Taliban have been forced to change somewhat due to the situation, that will likely change again with control of most of the country.

I can't see how this doesn't end up as a massive humanitarian crisis - the political wing of the Taliban have minimal clout with many of the local commanders, etc. some of whom are only a little removed from ISIS.

 

[gettothechopper]

Another Civil War would probably be the worst outcome

 

[Nasher]

Indeed. It's one of the most corrupt countries in the world, ideologically opposed to the West and saw us as an occupying force. It was always going to be a forever war when efforts to install Governments, make peace with the local war lords amounted to "how much will you keep paying me?".

Spoke to groups of young soldiers in the 2000's when out drinking who said it was hopeless, that it was like the stone age but with mobile phones and guns.

We call it Afghanistan but it's just really a rag tag place of lawless regions full of war lords loosely stitched together.

One of the guys who were out there said he saw a man ******* a goat next to the road on CCTV

The locals didn't even bat an eyelid apparently.

 

[Moley]

I remember the good old days when Russia were the invading force in Afghanistan and the 'Taliban' were known as the Mujahedeen and were seen quite romantically in the west as Freedom Fighting Rebels. Of course when the US invaded that couldn't be allowed to continue, hence the rebranding exercise....

 

[Nasher]

I remember the good old days when Russia were the invading force in Afghanistan and the 'Taliban' were known as the Mujahedeen and were seen quite romantically in the west as Freedom Fighting Rebels. Of course when the US invaded that couldn't be allowed to continue, hence the rebranding exercise....

I don't think the taliban started off the way it is now. When Russia was there it was a really small group.

OFC now that they are fighting the US, Russia is apparently their friend (which Russia denies obviously) and most likely supplying them with weapons.

 

[MookJong]

Once all the terror training camps were removed by 2002 that should have been it, we should have got back out and left them to it.

Taliban representatives actually visited Washington in the late 90s when a pipeline deal was being talked about. It does make you think what 22 years of diplomacy would have done for the country rather than trying to fight it into democracy.

This is a marvelous book if you have not read it:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Ghost-Wars...swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1625662585&sr=8-1

 

[Johno please?]

I remember the good old days when Russia were the invading force in Afghanistan and the 'Taliban' were known as the Mujahedeen and were seen quite romantically in the west as Freedom Fighting Rebels. Of course when the US invaded that couldn't be allowed to continue, hence the rebranding exercise....

Its not really that simple though, what you've described is more of a bad meme that people repeat without really knowing much about the conflict....

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/who-responsible-taliban