So did i.
Over the years AMD have been citing performance increases from Piledriver to Steamroller and most recently +20% IPC Excavator.
They have, but the Carrizo design is a very low power one. The IPC gains cannot be scaled to higher power CPUs / APUs. So you cannot necessarily judge by that.
I'm taking it as 7.5% over Bulldozer and then a compound 40% over that. However, Zen will have a starting point of 8c/16t so that makes it very promising imo. Someone around here is very fond of pointing out that without knowing the frequencies that Zen runs at, it's impossible to extrapolate performance from it. And because they're probably exhausted from pointing it out, I'll say it for them this time. We don't know.
All we really have to go on for performance is a statement from AMD that it will be "competitive with Skylake" which from the context I took to mean performance, but could refer to price-performance. I am really hoping it's the former as well as the latter. AMD need it and frankly so do we.