Everyone has a chance of making a claim, so even if you have many years NCB, rising claim costs mean that 'on average' your expected claims cost will be higher. So it's not a binary thing of should / shouldn't apply to a given driver, your premium is basically the overhead costs of insuring you plus the expected chance of you making claim(s) multiplied by the expected cost of those claim(s).Isn’t your NCB supposed to be an indication of how likely that is and therefore whether it should apply to you?
If mine is more than 10% higher I might bin off my car, hardly use it anyway.
Think of it like you have e.g. a 5% chance of making a claim, claims used to cost £1000 on average, now they cost £1500. So your expected claims cost would be £75 instead of £50.
Obviously that 5% might be higher for someone will less NCB.
Overly simplified but you get the idea.
A personal example would be, I've had home insurance on current property since 2008, never made any claims of any description. Yet my premium is higher than it used to be, because the fact I've never made a claim doesn't make it impossible that my house gets burned down this year, I get burgled or whatever. And if that happens it will cost more to rebuild my house / replace my stuff compared to 15 years ago, plus the overheads of my policy are higher as they have to pay staff more money, rising electric costs, rising property costs for the call centres etc (albeit some of these costs may be offset by savings in other areas due to improved technology etc).
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