All the house price discussion is interesting, as it is clearly a major cause of living costs being too high.
Apologies for being a pessimist, but;
1. Today the UK employees salary / general purchasing power is worth 20% less than a year ago. Just look at prices of Electronics over the last year as evidence we should all identify with.
2. A significant proportion of current UK property buyers are foreign and paid in foreign currencies (mainly USD). For these expats / foreigners, UK House prices are 20% down YOY, and likely to drop further. A perfect foreign / expat buyers market.
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7723/CBP-7723.pdf
- I know many UK expats paid in USD, who are in the process of, or planning to buy further UK property now (and who will live back in the UK in the future). I would imagine there are many non-UK individuals planning to do the same thing as well. The decline in the value of GBP (20% to date) is likely to increase foreign investment and ownership and property prices, not decrease them.
- A lot of the money driving the UK housing market does not originate in the UK. The government knows this and supports this, as they view it as positive foreign investment in the UK. They just don't want it taken back out again in the future, and their policies demonstrate this.
- This can only further increase the cost of living for those living in the UK and paid in GBP. Predictions are a further 7 to 15% decline in GBP value over the coming year which will exacerbate the situation.
3. That's before we consider all the other UK industries where costs have increased and margins declined significantly.
4. On a global stage, the UK worker paid in GBP is paid 20% less than last year, and can buy 20% less than last year. no doubt someone will spout 'Buy British', or restrict the market, but that is not a solution, simply lack of understanding of global economics and the realities of the UK economy / manufacturing capabilities on the global stage.
5. The GBP will only start to recover value when the BOE ceases quantitative easing and raises interest rates, and they currently cannot do this, but when they do (likely minimum 2 years away), it will of course increase costs in other ways.
Martin