Are EV’s really the way to go?

[almoststew1990]

Well to turn it around, if you drive 30,000 miles over 3 year lease (Not sure if 20,000 is more realistic for an EV?) how much of your electricity needs to come from renewable sources to break even?

If 13,400 miles equates to 23% renewables then you need 10.2% of your electricity to come from renewable sources to break even at 30,000 miles although that assumes a linear relationship between miles and reduced carbon, which obviously isn't true, as the EVs badness all comes in one big lump at the start.

The UK is currently (as in right this second) at 11.8% renewable or 39% "not fossil fuels".

Honestly that's better than I thought

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Wind has been incredibly high some days - like 42% i think.

Why would 20k be more realistic for an EV over 3 years? I've done 20k in 16 months.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Well to turn it around, if you drive 30,000 miles over 3 year lease (Not sure if 20,000 is more realistic for an EV?) how much of your electricity needs to come from renewable sources to break even?

If 13,400 miles equates to 23% renewables then you need 10.2% of your electricity to come from renewable sources to break even at 30,000 miles although that assumes a linear relationship between miles and reduced carbon, which obviously isn't true, as the EVs badness all comes in one big lump at the start.

The UK is currently (as in right this second) at 11.8% renewable or 39% "not fossil fuels".

Honestly that's better than I thought

The EV doesn’t die after 3 years so why only consider that part of the emissions? The typical lifecycle of a car is over a decade. The 3 year snapshot is irrelevant.

 

[Nasher]

How many EVs over a decade old are still going through? Many of the early Teslas have had to have the batteries replaced by now, which isn't good. Ignoring all the ones which caught fire in a massive battery fire, that wasn't a small carbon footprint though...

 

[Simon]

3 years isnt 10 years, why have you moved the goalposts?

 

[delta0]

How many EVs over a decade old are still going through? Many of the early Teslas have had to have the batteries replaced by now, which isn't good. Ignoring all the ones which caught fire in a massive battery fire, that wasn't a small carbon footprint though...

Batteries are designed for 500k minimum now with some 750k and soon all will be 1m miles so extremely few will have been replaced. Far less than early combustion engine replacements.

 

[Simon]

Batteries are designed for 500k minimum now with some 750k and soon all will be 1m miles so extremely few will have been replaced. Far less than early combustion engine replacements.

They weren’t designed for that 10years ago though. In any case. What is a mile when you are talking about charge rates etc which impact battery life. A battery could do no miles but be used as V2G.


Also these 500k mile claims won’t be for 100% SOH. Most warranty’s are less than 10 years and often only see a concern when it’s dropped below 80%

 

[jpaul]

Interesting comment here that euro 7 qualification may impose new requirements on battery warranties , in addition to shorter term issues raised for likes of ev6 Vehicle2load issue.

...
Upcoming Euro7 will bring some complication for OEMs. As Vehicle homologation will extend the same behaviour policy up to 15 years and 240,000km whatever its powertrain, this might bring additional constraint for Battery manufacturers and OEMs.

the electronics, capacitors and iGBT's used in the invertors are another weakness and some companies setting themselves up as specialists to fix those.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

It’s NOTHING compared to what it does to combustion engines and after treatment.

it’s part of the reason, particularly smaller lower cost cars, are moving to EV to avoid the headache that is EU7 ICE.

Seems your consumption of stuff when it’s only half the story really shows you lack of understanding of what’s regurgitated by you.

 

[jpaul]

Seems your consumption of stuff when it’s only half the story really shows you lack of understanding of what’s regurgitated by you.

too late for your bed time reading now .... we know all about ice restrictions - look to the future

battery requirements envisaged
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2021/689337/EPRS_BRI(2021)689337_EN.pdf

...
progressive requirements to minimise the carbon footprint of EV batteries and rechargeable industrial batteries: a carbon footprint declaration requirement, applying as of 1 July 2024, complemented by classification in a carbon footprint performance category and related labelling (as of 1 January 2026); and a requirement to comply with maximum lifecycle carbon footprint thresholds(as of 1 July 2027); a recycled content declaration requirement, which would apply from 1 January2027 to industrial batteries, EV batteries and automotive batteries containing cobalt, lead, lithium or nickel in active materials. Mandatory minimum levels of recycled content would be set for 2030 and 2035 (i.e. 12 % cobalt, 85 % lead, 4 % lithium and 4 % nickel as of 1 January 2030, increasing to 20 % cobalt, 10 % lithium and 12 % nickel from 1 January 2035, the share for lead being unchanged);

and, a good primer
https://www.researchgate.net/public...wer_Electronic_Systems_for_EVHEV_Applications

 

[Simon]

What are you on about now. I don’t even know what point you are trying to make. Isn’t the topic about the life of a battery. Not sure why you are talking about recycling.

typical post by you though. Incoherent mess that you expect the reader to go off and read a full paper to try and understand which excerpt of it is of potential interest in your mind.

the best place for an old EV battery pack is to reuse rather than recycle. But again no one was talking about recycling. They were talking about long term performance (when still attached to the car)

 

[jpaul]

so in the context of recent posts eg 220 about recycling / battery pack carbon impact, it's not interesting to educate yourself on upcoming ev battery requirements ? ok

 

[Simon]

Not really as I don’t design batteries. I still fail to see how any of it relevant to performance of batteries in use in a vehicle which is one of the concerns raised in this thread.

Let’s be honest the consumer doesn’t care about recycling. They care if the car they use has lost 20% range after a few years, which when looking at manufacturer warranties, is acceptable degradation.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

I wouldn’t say 8 years is a few years.

You also should consider that there is a massive margin of error applied to that number to account for non-typical use (E.g. rapid charged constantly), extreme environmental conditions and frankly to reduce the number that will end up being replaced under warranty.

The last time I looked at data from Tesla most were still in the 90+ range after 100,000 miles.

In reality the vast majority of cars will have limited degradation over their typical lifetime. Particularly those with modern designs, active heating, cooling and good BMS software.

 

[squerble]

I wouldn’t say 8 years is a few years.

You also should consider that there is a massive margin of error applied to that number to account for non-typical use (E.g. rapid charged constantly), extreme environmental conditions and frankly to reduce the number that will end up being replaced under warranty.

The last time I looked at data from Tesla most were still in the 90+ range after 100,000 miles.

In reality the vast majority of cars will have limited degradation over their typical lifetime. Particularly those with modern designs, active heating, cooling and good BMS software.

Yea, with how popular the Leaf has been up until the last couple of years, its lack of battery cooling and therefore very obvious battery degradation has really created a stigma that the latest data says is unwarranted.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

too late for your bed time reading now .... we know all about ice restrictions - look to the future

battery requirements envisaged
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2021/689337/EPRS_BRI(2021)689337_EN.pdf


and, a good primer
https://www.researchgate.net/public...wer_Electronic_Systems_for_EVHEV_Applications

so in the context of recent posts eg 220 about recycling / battery pack carbon impact, it's not interesting to educate yourself on upcoming ev battery requirements ? ok

I’m going to now spell this out.

My job is working in a team designing the underfloor of a EV platform. I already know what you are trying to say, just your narrative is so skewed and biased it’s almost comical and feels like knowledge foie gras to the forum. I’m never sure who you intended audience is.

 

[Simon]

I wouldn’t say 8 years is a few years.

You also should consider that there is a massive margin of error applied to that number to account for non-typical use (E.g. rapid charged constantly), extreme environmental conditions and frankly to reduce the number that will end up being replaced under warranty.

The last time I looked at data from Tesla most were still in the 90+ range after 100,000 miles.

In reality the vast majority of cars will have limited degradation over their typical lifetime. Particularly those with modern designs, active heating, cooling and good BMS software.

Yet a phone which is kept in ideal conditions loses much more. We will see in a few years I guess.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

What do you mean we will see in a few years?

The Tesla Model S launched in 2012 and is coming up on its 10th birthday. The drivetrain in those is rudimentary compared to what most manufacturers are putting out today. The Zoe has been out since 2014 and the leaf since 2010.

The way batteries are implemented and used in phones and cars are not really comparable for a whole load of reasons.

 

[Simon]

Well thats original NCA type tech which we know lose up to 10% over 100-150k miles. More interested in LFP and other tech thats being used now.

Agree on phone cell vs car comparisons, anyway we can see what warranties are out there so will be interesting what 1 million mile battery means for SoH limits

 

[b0rn2sk8]

The LFP cells are more stable and have less degradation than NCA so should last significantly longer, that's really their only advantage. There are some disadvantages like density and therefore size and weight, that means to can get less capacity in the same size car.

The main barrier is real world data, the only reason we have data from Tesla is because they have an API and a bunch of people have been allowing 3rd parties to scavenge every data point they possibly can. On the flipside they have been lab tested to death and there is loads of peer reviewed papers out there comparing various chemistries online.

Based on the lab tests I would expect minimal degradation over 500 cycles from LFP, that's over 100k miles in my car.