Are EV’s really the way to go?

[blun]

There's a lot of obsession around batteries which is mainly FUD circulated by those who need to string out the existing ICE-age for as long as possible.

Needing a new battery is the EV equivalent of an ICE car needing a new engine. E.g.:

- not required during the vehicle lifetime unless due to a catastrophic failure (benefit here is 8-10 year battery warranty vs 3-5 yr engine warranty)
- if required on, say a 20 year old car, then you'd probably use a reconditioned engine/battery not a brand new one

If I am buying a 10 year old EV in 2030, hopefully for a good price as 2nd hand values become more realistic, I am not going to care if it's range is 3-5% less than when it was brand new. Especially given that it is extremely rare to use an EV's full range (I've had mine for 3 years and only once used it's full 200ish mile range despite many 300+ mile trips)

 

[Simon]

Pure speculation on many points including assuming only a few % after 10yrs.

Batteries age, it’s physics/chemistry. Not really fair compare a battery to an engine either. A battery should be compared to a fuel tank as you haven’t even considered motors.

Don’t understand how you have managed to use not use 200 mile of range on a 300 mile trip? Surely you had to charge? Those trips in future could need more stops/charges. Battery degradation will also reduce power output at the motors

I don’t think it always needs to revert to a ICE vs BEV position either. It’s good just to understand the aging factors of both without needing to have a SNES vs megadrive type discussion

 

[blun]

Batteries used in EVs are cared for by the Battery Management System in such a way that they last the life of the car (and then a second life for energy storage before recycling). Lab testing and real world shows that this is the case. Hopefully as 10 year old EVs become more common people's "distrust of new things" will fade away, much like people were sceptical of cars when transitioning from horses.

The reason for comparing the Battery to the Engine is that it's the "expensive bit" to replace, but shouldn't need replacing.

On a 300 mile trip I normally do about 150-170 miles, then charge for 10 mins, then do the remaining 130-150 miles. If I was driving a 10 year old EV I'd probably do exactly the same.

The key point is that an "aged" EV is only a few % less-good than a new one, just as an "aged" ICE is similarly a few % less-good than a new one. The benefit in both cases is that they're potentially 20-50% of the price of a new one!

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Agree with most of that but 50 oil changes doesn’t mean the car has lost performance or the fuel tank got smaller.

Right, what I was trying to demonstrate is that whilst some factors may make one car slightly more valuable or "wanted" during its life there comes a point when that ceases to be of any recognisable value.
For ICE cars you could have the best ever engine, having been treated like royalty its whole life, but its still a car of X age with all the costs and expected value of one.
Outside collectables etc, the fact the engine is so superb is irrelevant when someone crashes into the back of it and writes it off. The rest of the package kills the value and that one component cannot remove that.

I think EVs will have a slightly different profile to ICE (they may not), but the same economics and consumer valuations will still take place, just likely based on different metrics, maybe a little less fixation on mileage (as a proxy for engine condition) and more on battery life.
For the vast majority (and hence the real world value) a 20 year old model 3 with 97% battery life is not going to hold its value better than a 10 year old with 95% battery life.
Because the vast majority are going to pick a 10 year younger car, with 10 year newer everything else which will have far far less likelyhood of going wrong.
The 2% battery life difference being pretty much irrelevant to the vast majority.

 

[sandys]

Batteries used in EVs are cared for by the Battery Management System in such a way that they last the life of the car (and then a second life for energy storage before recycling). Lab testing and real world shows that this is the case. Hopefully as 10 year old EVs become more common people's "distrust of new things" will fade away, much like people were sceptical of cars when transitioning from horses.

The key point is that an "aged" EV is only a few % less-good than a new one, just as an "aged" ICE is similarly a few % less-good than a new one. The benefit in both cases is that they're potentially 20-50% of the price of a new one!

Due to a reduction in parts and the remaining bits being vital to the car there are a number of fail points that are expensive on EVs, motors, inverters outside of the batteries themselves, what we have not seen yet is a burgeoning after market repair, I don't think anyone's fears will be completely quelled until you can quantify these repair costs and there are options out of warranty, at the moment there are none. a recon engine or a repair is generally a known quantity for many old cars.

With respect to tests it depends who is testing what, Tests on Bjorn Nylands two model 3s showed 4% loss a year, that's pretty high, Tesla probably knows a fair bit about battery management etc, fortunately it comes with a good warranty so you may get a new one in the 8 yrs as people already have done with motors and inverters, other manufacturers warranties are less comprehensive.

 

[Simon]

Yeh talking single figures is interesting when most OEM only warranty to 80% at 8 years

 

[blun]

As mentioned above though the majority of “degradation” happens early on before flattening out. So it’s not 4% per year it would be more like 4% year 1, 1% year 2, 1% year 3, 0.5% year 4 etc.. (depending on whether year1 is hidden by a large buffer).

Hence 8 year old EVs with 10000’s of miles still being at well above 90% health.

It’s just not a concern - other than FUD to keep people buying ICE cars. Remember, you don’t have to prove EVs and batteries are “bad”, just cast some doubt and that will string things out a bit longer.

 

[Simon]

What’s your source. This forum and some hobby YouTuber ?

 

[blun]

Apologies it’s Tesla but they have the most data over the longest time:

Check Out This Official Tesla Model S/X Battery Capacity Degradation Chart

Battery capacity degradation over time or distance traveled is one of the several main concerns in terms of electric cars. Let's see Tesla's results.

insideevs.com

“We noted several things:

• the initial battery capacity fade is higher in the beginning and then stabilizes at a slower rate
• we estimate (from the chart) that the first 5% of battery capacity is gone (on average) after about 25,000 miles (40,000 km)
• another 5% (total of 10%) is gone (on average) around 125,000-150,000 miles (200,000-241,000 km), but it's difficult to estimate because the curve is really flat
• after 200,000 miles (322,000 km), on average, the capacity degradation is below 15% (the car still has more than 85% of the capacity and corresponding range)”

 

[b0rn2sk8]

One thing to note is that Tesla has very little in the way of top buffer unlike others so 100% means 100%.

Some cars have a pretty big top buffer like the etron and as such can hide a fair amount of degradation within it.

 

[lordrobs]

Apologies it’s Tesla but they have the most data over the longest time:

Check Out This Official Tesla Model S/X Battery Capacity Degradation Chart

Battery capacity degradation over time or distance traveled is one of the several main concerns in terms of electric cars. Let's see Tesla's results.

insideevs.com

“We noted several things:

• the initial battery capacity fade is higher in the beginning and then stabilizes at a slower rate
• we estimate (from the chart) that the first 5% of battery capacity is gone (on average) after about 25,000 miles (40,000 km)
• another 5% (total of 10%) is gone (on average) around 125,000-150,000 miles (200,000-241,000 km), but it's difficult to estimate because the curve is really flat
• after 200,000 miles (322,000 km), on average, the capacity degradation is below 15% (the car still has more than 85% of the capacity and corresponding range)”

So the hypothetical 20 year old Model 3 with 97% battery capacity that Mercenary Keyboard Warrior was referring to had done an annual mileage of about 30 miles

Batteries used in EVs are cared for by the Battery Management System in such a way that they last the life of the car (and then a second life for energy storage before recycling).

Isn't that just a hypothetical though until we start having hundreds of thousands of EVs scrapped each year? I totally get it if each EV had a homogenised modular pack and it was a case of test a module and slap it into use if it is still good but are we really expecting this to be viable with hundreds of thousands of batteries in hundreds of different configurations?

 

[blun]

The simple point is that real world evidence shows that the batteries easily last the life of the car and then are still useful for other purposes after that. There is massive demand for battery storage which will only increase as it becomes common to have a home battery and solar or for load-shifting to off peak times. There's lots of other demand too (e.g. industrial use) which all helps the effort to reach net-zero whilst re-using batteries before they're eventually recycled in 20-30-40 years time.

Used car batteries are being used for storage today but there are nowhere near enough of them as the cars are still on the road, so mainly new batteries are having to be used for home storage. This isn't mega-simple but it's not hard and is financially well worth while.

 

[jpaul]

Apologies it’s Tesla but they have the most data over the longest time:

that article is a couple of years old now, and tesla has had to throttle older S's/X's with owner compensation to preserve battery life ie.

Tesla is again found guilty of throttling charging speed, asked to pay $14,000 to owners in retrial

Tesla was again found guilty of throttling its Superchargering speed on early Model S vehicles. In Norway, the company is asked to pay ~$14,000 to affected owners in a retrial of the process, which Tesla is going to appeal. The Problem Back in 2019, Electrek reported on several reports from...

electrek.co

Whilst nissan/tesla (comparatively) have lots of legacy data now, for others like VW/stellantis there could still be surprises, ota tweeks as the data comes in, necessitating reduced charging rate or reduced power output, not sure those aspects of performance are covered with the batteries 8years/150K warranties.
(E: I suppose you can complain if it no longer does 0-60 in specified time)

For a 2nd wave of owners without home charging (man on the street) so, using high power intermittent charging, and high depth of discharge,
that, significantly, reduces battery cycles https://batteryuniversity.com/article/bu-808-how-to-prolong-lithium-based-batteries
so if you use battery in the 25-75% range versus 25-85% the battery last for 50% more miles; LFP technology will help.



(on scrappage - Does/will end of life disposal of current evs incur a high owner born recycling charge/liability versus ICE ?
for ICE, prior to covid, you payed them to scrap the car, I imagine the reverse is true now, though )

 

[blun]

Once people get used to EV "fuelling" being different from liquid fuelling, those that can't charge at home will "graze" and charge when parked at supermarkets, car parks, restaurants, cinemas, gyms etc.. Rapid charging is something you do either on a road trip or if you unexpectedly need to charge quickly.

It's a mindset change from "I go to a place to refuel" to "I refuel while I am busy doing something else"

UK and EU law says that all EV batteries must be recycled at end of life. That said, even a 20 year old battery will be valuable for re-use rather than recycling so would have a good resale value. Once the car is rusting away it'll still be worth a reasonable amount to its last owner as its sent away for the parts to be recycled and the battery to be used for storage.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Given a used battery pack from an EV, even and old battered leaf, is worth a significant amount of money and that’s before you consider the rest of the car. I don’t think you’ll be paying to dispose of an EV for a long time, if ever. They have far too much valuable material to be worth nothing.

People are paying tens of thousands for completely managed crashed Tesla’s for a reason at the end of the day.

 

[jpaul]

manufacturers are responsible for battery recycling not sure that extends to the dismantling costs of the car to get the batteries out at car eol, V
if they can be re-purposed for storage, unclear how that recycling responsibility is transferred .

New EU regulatory framework for batteries Setting sustainability requirements
According to Directive 2006/66/EC, as amended by Directive 2013/56/EU, it must be possible to remove batteries readily and safely. Thus, appliances incorporating batteries must be accompanied by instructions on how these can be safely removed by either the end-user or by independent qualified professionals
Producers (or third parties acting on their behalf) have to bear the net cost of collecting, treating and recycling industrial, automotive and portable batteries.

 

[lordrobs]

Given a used battery pack from an EV, even and old battered leaf, is worth a significant amount of money and that’s before you consider the rest of the car. I don’t think you’ll be paying to dispose of an EV for a long time, if ever. They have far too much valuable material to be worth nothing.

People are paying tens of thousands for completely managed crashed Tesla’s for a reason at the end of the day.

Time will tell how much those people will be willing to pay for 15 year old 150000+ mile batteries when there is tens (hundreds) times more available.

My educated guess is that the answer will be a very small fraction of what people are paying for smashed up Tesla's to salvage.

As much as people like to think that EVs are the saviour of the planet the reality is that they represent a less bad option but when they start hitting end of life in any great numbers they will bring their own set of problems.

I'm sure there will be an industry setup to deal with it but I think it is a stretch to think a 15 year old EV as being worth anything or not requiring expensive recycling of the batteries.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Is it really that much of a stretch?

You say the recycling process is expensive, but it ignores the high value of the material within it and it’s much higher than your average combustion car. All of which is going in the ‘wrong direction’ in terms of price. Likewise, new cells are becoming more expensive, not less because of those higher costs.

Ultimately the commodity market will decide what happens, but demand is outstripping supply and will do for the next 30 years as the entire globe transitions its generation systems. Used cells/modules will be a part of that market.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

So the hypothetical 20 year old Model 3 with 97% battery capacity that Mercenary Keyboard Warrior was referring to had done an annual mileage of about 30 miles

I wasnt really aiming to post a real world example since we dont really have a lot to go on yet.
But if you want we could reframe the 20 year old tesla on 90% battery (6-7.5k annual mileage) vs a 10 year old on 85% with 20k annual mileage (200k total)

Just like ICE there is going to be a point where the battery degradation fails to have as much impact on the value of a car as opposed to all the other factors.
Its hard to say where that is going to be. They have to have a reasonably finite lifetime for mass adoption since as I said, why would you pay more for a 20 year old model when a 10 year one will be more advanced in many areas.
Equivalent to saying this iphone1 now has a brand new battery so it should be worth more than this iphone 4 with only 75% battery life. Reality is both are probably worth not much and some may prefer the "retro" iphone 1

 

[lordrobs]

Ultimately the commodity market will decide what happens, but demand is outstripping supply and will do for the next 30 years as the entire globe transitions its generation systems. Used cells/modules will be a part of that market.

Absolutely, and I have my words prepared with a nice side salad ready to eat them when I'm proven wrong.

It could well be that recycling for those commodities ends up being cheaper than mining them at source. In which case the recycling industry is going to become very big very quickly. I see that as a far more likely scenario than people strapping Leaf batteries to the side of their house to harvest £1.50 of electricity at a time.