Poll: Australian Grand Prix 2019, Melbourne - Race 1/21

[Steampunk]

I think at some point, depending how the season is going, the front running teams have to put their eggs into one basket. As per last year, at some point Mercedes had to get behind Hamilton in order to fend off Ferrari, and that was because he was the driver that was most likely to win the WDC, and he earned that by being far ahead in the points at that time.

It's not impossible for junior drivers like Leclerc or Bottas to earn that position, they just have to outscore their team mates until they become the driver that the team (including the other driver) has to support to the WDC. It's obviously going to be harder for Leclerc, as he's already been told (and accepted) that he's got to be subservient to Vettel, whereas Bottas has a window where he can just try and win everything for the first half of the season to be in front of Hamilton so that Bottas then becomes the primary hope for the championship.

I think Hamilton had an unlucky first race with some damage, but he's relentless, and you'd be a fool to count him out of any season where he's in one of the fastest cars. I think Vettel is mentally more fragile, and prone to mistakes, so all it will take is for Leclerc to make a few wins, get a car between himself and Vettel so he can't be ordered to swap places, and then we'll see if Ferrari bow to pressure from the Italian press to let the new guy have his shot over the fading champion that's been soundly beaten over the last few years by Mercedes.

 

[JBeck]

You're not reading the updates correctly. I'm sure that EVH is correct, but what we're saying is that there are ways in which Leclerc can render a number 1 status irrelevant. It all comes down to him being able to out-perform Vettel and, in most cases, outperform him to the extent where it would cost Ferrari performance or points to swap their positions. Out qualifying him and out starting him are two classic examples, and another is for Leclerc to be ahead of him with another team's car or cars in between.

Bottom line is that he just needs to be faster. The better performing driver will be the number 1 driver

I am reading correctly, I understand the theory, just don't necessarily agree.

 

[JBeck]

I think at some point, depending how the season is going, the front running teams have to put their eggs into one basket. As per last year, at some point Mercedes had to get behind Hamilton in order to fend off Ferrari, and that was because he was the driver that was most likely to win the WDC, and he earned that by being far ahead in the points at that time.

It's not impossible for junior drivers like Leclerc or Bottas to earn that position, they just have to outscore their team mates until they become the driver that the team (including the other driver) has to support to the WDC. It's obviously going to be harder for Leclerc, as he's already been told (and accepted) that he's got to be subservient to Vettel, whereas Bottas has a window where he can just try and win everything for the first half of the season to be in front of Hamilton so that Bottas then becomes the primary hope for the championship.

Exactly, Leclerc has been told that, meaning no matter if he qualifies ahead of Vettel, or out starts him, he'll more than likely have to let Vettel through. This in turn will give Vettel more points and in turn it will be his basket they put their eggs in. How Leclerc can earn top driver status from this will be somewhat of a miracle, at least this year. Next season Ferrari may look back and take what might have been and change things.

 

[The_Abyss]

I am reading correctly, I understand the theory, just don't necessarily agree.

What don't you agree with - that Ferrari will do it or that it is possible? The former I could understand, although I'd argue it would just be a case of how long it would take. The latter I would argue cannot be disputed.

 

[CaptainRAVE]

Vettel is going to need every point he can get. It is the only hope he has against the mercs who can’t put all their eggs in one basket again this year.

 

[mmj_uk]

Problem is, come the end of the season Leclerc could theoretically lose out on the Drivers Championship by 1-2pts because Ferrari put all of their eggs in the wrong basket. I think the main reason Ferrari have for team orders this early on is purely to protect Vettel's reputation. It's seasons like 2014/15 when Ricciardo outperformed Vettel that people will point to when talking about F1 greats, when you have a 4 times World Champion on the books for millions of pounds you don't want them being outperformed by upstarts or their value diminishes both on the track and in marketing terms off the track. It's getting old the way every time Vettel has a bad race he comes on the radio complaining about the car and then after the race they announce a fault.

 

[Syla5]

Vettel is going to need every point he can get. It is the only hope he has against the mercs who can’t put all their eggs in one basket again this year.

What do you mean by merc cant put all their eggs in one basket again?

They only really had 1 egg last year, it really wasn't a choice they had to make, Bottas did the hard work for them.

 

[CaptainRAVE]

What do you mean by merc cant put all their eggs in one basket again?

They only really had 1 egg last year, it really wasn't a choice they had to make, Bottas did the hard work for them.

But they still backed that 1 egg last year for the second half.

Bottas knows his time is up this year, he won’t play wingman, IF he ends up in that position again - which I suspect he will next race.

 

[JBeck]

What don't you agree with - that Ferrari will do it or that it is possible? The former I could understand, although I'd argue it would just be a case of how long it would take. The latter I would argue cannot be disputed.

I don't agree that Leclerc can gain number one status with pure performance. As I stated above, if there is a contract in place, or if Ferrari simply favour Vettel (which they seem to do) then it doesn't matter if Leclerc out-qualifies or out-starts Vettel as Leclerc will probably have to let Vettel through anyway (to honour said contract etc). This will mean that Vettel will have more points when it comes to crunch time, choosing which of your drivers to put your eggs in, which of course would be Vettel as he would have more points, therefore Leclerc will gain nothing.

We all know that Hamilton came along and beat Alonso on his debut, but there were no team orders there, or contracts allowing Alonso the lead, this situation at Ferrari is therefore different and does indeed favour one driver over the other.

 

[JBeck]

Problem is, come the end of the season Leclerc could theoretically lose out on the Drivers Championship by 1-2pts because Ferrari put all of their eggs in the wrong basket. I think the main reason Ferrari have for team orders this early on is purely to protect Vettel's reputation. It's seasons like 2014/15 when Ricciardo outperformed Vettel that people will point to when talking about F1 greats, when you have a 4 times World Champion on the books for millions of pounds you don't want them being outperformed by upstarts or their value diminishes both on the track and in marketing terms off the track. It's getting old the way every time Vettel has a bad race he comes on the radio complaining about the car and then after the race they announce a fault.

I'm not sure it's just his reputation, I would be surprised if there is not a contract or written agreement in place too. RB in those days let their drivers race, Ferrari however have a history of team orders so it seems logical that they won't. However to contradict myself, last season Ferrari made some bizarre decisions letting Kimi take points off Vettel and issued no such orders, which is why it is likely that there is a contract/agreement demanded by Vettel this time around.

 

[Steampunk]

I don't agree that Leclerc can gain number one status with pure performance. As I stated above, if there is a contract in place, or if Ferrari simply favour Vettel (which they seem to do) then it doesn't matter if Leclerc out-qualifies or out-starts Vettel as Leclerc will probably have to let Vettel through anyway (to honour said contract etc). This will mean that Vettel will have more points when it comes to crunch time, choosing which of your drivers to put your eggs in, which of course would be Vettel as he would have more points, therefore Leclerc will gain nothing.

We all know that Hamilton came along and beat Alonso on his debut, but there were no team orders there, or contracts allowing Alonso the lead, this situation at Ferrari is therefore different and does indeed favour one driver over the other.

It would be a massive ask of Leclerc, but if he qualifies a few places ahead of Vettel, and keeps those places, it's not like Ferrari are going to ask him to drop three or four places back so that Vettel can finish a place further up. They might do that if it was the difference between winning the championship at the last race or not, but you then run the risk of bringing the sport into disrepute.

The only way for this to happen is if Leclerc was significantly and consistently faster that Vettel from the start to the finish of qualifying and the race for at least the first half of the season - in which case he'd deserve to be given the chance to beat Vettel and finish ahead of him in the WDC.

In short, if Leclerc is winning, Vettel's stock at Ferrari will go down quickly, as winning races is what matters in the end.

 

[The_Abyss]

It would be a massive ask of Leclerc, but if he qualifies a few places ahead of Vettel, and keeps those places, it's not like Ferrari are going to ask him to drop three or four places back so that Vettel can finish a place further up. They might do that if it was the difference between winning the championship at the last race or not, but you then run the risk of bringing the sport into disrepute.

The only way for this to happen is if Leclerc was significantly and consistently faster that Vettel from the start to the finish of qualifying and the race for at least the first half of the season - in which case he'd deserve to be given the chance to beat Vettel and finish ahead of him in the WDC.

In short, if Leclerc is winning, Vettel's stock at Ferrari will go down quickly, as winning races is what matters in the end.

Precisely.

Throw in the added factor of the mental Italian press and the pressure heaped on Ferrari, Vettel (who is already disliked in the Italian press after last season) could wipe his arse with his contract.

Ferrari would almost certainly still pay it out, but he’s be toast quicker than you could say Multi 21.

I don’t think Leclerc is that quick though, and we still haven’t seen enough of these cars to know if overtaking is more possible at normal circuits.

 

[JBeck]

It would be a massive ask of Leclerc, but if he qualifies a few places ahead of Vettel, and keeps those places, it's not like Ferrari are going to ask him to drop three or four places back so that Vettel can finish a place further up. They might do that if it was the difference between winning the championship at the last race or not, but you then run the risk of bringing the sport into disrepute.

The only way for this to happen is if Leclerc was significantly and consistently faster that Vettel from the start to the finish of qualifying and the race for at least the first half of the season - in which case he'd deserve to be given the chance to beat Vettel and finish ahead of him in the WDC.

In short, if Leclerc is winning, Vettel's stock at Ferrari will go down quickly, as winning races is what matters in the end.

It's not a massive ask if there is only one place difference, which let's be honest is usually the case, and if it's contracted, then it's a done deal.

 

[Steampunk]

It's not a massive ask if there is only one place difference, which let's be honest is usually the case, and if it's contracted, then it's a done deal.

Yes, Ferrari will have no compunction in having Leclerc drop back a place to swap with Vettel, and that's why Leclerc's only path to beating him on track is to make sure he's at least two places ahead, with one car between himself and Vettel. That seems pretty unlikely unless Leclerc is insanely faster than Vettel.

 

[Mr Jack]

I'm not sure it's just his reputation, I would be surprised if there is not a contract or written agreement in place too. RB in those days let their drivers race, Ferrari however have a history of team orders so it seems logical that they won't.

That contract won't mean toffee IF Leclerc outclasses Vettel. I'm not expecting it, but a clause won't help Vettel if it does.

 

[Deleted member 651465]

Yes, Ferrari will have no compunction in having Leclerc drop back a place to swap with Vettel, and that's why Leclerc's only path to beating him on track is to make sure he's at least two places ahead, with one car between himself and Vettel. That seems pretty unlikely unless Leclerc is insanely faster than Vettel.

I’d wager that they’d simply “Kimi” him... e.g leave him out a lap or 2 too long and shaft him via the pit stops.

How many times did we see that last year? It almost always seemed that Kimi got the worst of the two strategies for no other reason than they wanted him to drop behind Vettel.

 

[Flibster]

Just seen the Midweek Debrief show.

Seems far too polished for a Ted Kravitz thing. No pencils, rubbers or toy cars being used to demonstrate anything, no getting in the way of team members trying to pack up...

Still nice to see him though.

 

[Syla5]

But they still backed that 1 egg last year for the second half.

Bottas knows his time is up this year, he won’t play wingman, IF he ends up in that position again - which I suspect he will next race.

When a team mate is soundly thrashing another, it isn't the team putting all eggs in one basket. The only time Merc really backed Hamilton last year was Russia. Everywhere else they didn't need to back Hamilton as he got the job done with equal treatment.

 

[Terminal_Boy]

Precisely.

Throw in the added factor of the mental Italian press and the pressure heaped on Ferrari, Vettel (who is already disliked in the Italian press after last season) could wipe his arse with his contract.

Ferrari would almost certainly still pay it out, but he’s be toast quicker than you could say Multi 21.

I don’t think Leclerc is that quick though, and we still haven’t seen enough of these cars to know if overtaking is more possible at normal circuits.

If the Tifosi take a liking to Leclerc and he’s out-performing Vettel every race, Vettel will need to up his game or see whatever a P45 is called in Italy. Doubly so if Leclerc puts team before self and obeys team orders to let a slower Vettel past.

 

[Terminal_Boy]

Double post. Sorry about that.