So basically a scenario where a person in the cab would be “needed” would be very rare.
Gotcha.
The person in the cab would need to be an experienced highly skilled driver. Ideally practicing daily and througly vetted.
Autonomous Vehicles
- Thread starter adam cool dude
- Start date
The person in the cab would need to be an experienced highly skilled driver. Ideally practicing daily and througly vetted.
Why? You also realise that airline pilots don’t even practice daily for most of the stuff the autopilot does.
A system similar to that of airline pilots for the very small number of times an operator would be needed is something I already alluded to. Training on simulators (say monthly/quarterly) and special training drives could be an option if there was a requirement to take over fully, rather than just an electronic procedure.
Or are you suggesting driving an HGV requires more skill and training than a commercial jet?
I was just reading about the level of automation in aviation and the dangers that has brought from lower pilot skill levels through lack of experience. It makes it very hard to weed out the worst pilots.
For me It's simply daft not having a driver to save on wages. It's even dafter not having a highly skilled and experienced one. I'll happily pay a little more for stuff.
For me It's simply daft not having a driver to save on wages. It's even dafter not having a highly skilled and experienced one. I'll happily pay a little more for stuff.
Last edited:
But then you're under the belief that driving a HGV is a complicated task. Which it isn't.
It's a simple, repetitive tasks that requires a degree of skill, training, and experience. That's why it's ripe for automation. For safety reasons alone there will be a regulatory push toward automation. Then there's the saving on wages and other human-related costs, the reduced down-time.
It's a simple, repetitive tasks that requires a degree of skill, training, and experience. That's why it's ripe for automation. For safety reasons alone there will be a regulatory push toward automation. Then there's the saving on wages and other human-related costs, the reduced down-time.
Last edited:
But what is the safer. A experienced driver with a layer of AI ready to step in. Just AI. Or a noob that's asleep being driven around. I'd say the first one is the best option myself.
I am sure that big red button will help in a tyre blowout which is a potentially lethal scenario to other road users. When driving something that is 40 tonne a driver with computers aiding him is far superior to computers driving with the driver aiding.
This will always be the case until artificial intelligence equals that of the human brain.
How about a tired experienced driver, or one that gets distracted, or one that has a medical condition, or one that just isn’t very good? How do they compare to automation software that doesn’t get tired, doesn’t have emotions and is always at a set level of ability whether it’s noon on a Monday, 5pm on a Friday or 3am on a Sunday morning after a 24 hour “shift”?
Something like a blowout could be controlled by the AI. The reality will be (and pretty much is now) any operator in the vehicle would only take over if somehow the computer crashed or went into a loop/malfunctioned. I.e. a fundamental problem with the software rather than any hardware or mechanical problem. Hense the “big red button” to stop the vehicle and reset the computer. It would get to a stage quite quickly IMO where the person sitting in the cab is there for regulatory*/union requirements rather than any actual need for them to be there.
The fundamentals are the same whether the vehicle is 10kg, 2 tonnes of 40 tonnes so if AI is capable of driving a car safely then there is no reason it can’t drive an HGV safely (as has already been shown).
* largely dictated by misguided public perception. Feeling “safer” because there’s someone that may be able to take over if the once in a blue moon incident happens.
Autonomous forklift drivers of course. With a monitor sitting just in case they try to impale someone.
Don
But who monitors the monitors?
And people power (at end points).
Not the drivers, which is the most pertinent point to this conversation.
Have you seriously worked in anything to do with logistics before? Where I work most of the logistic infrastructure is 20+ years old and this is a first world country. It's hard enough raising a PO for cheap pieces of equipment let alone state of the art logistical equipment. People do not even want to know unless you can turn your investment into profit within a 6 month timescale. Autonomous forklift drivers would never work in the near future due to the communication element needed as it is not a nuts and bolts job. One minute he could be going to one destination with a call going out half way through to him to pick something else up. The next day he could have exactly the same order but with material in completely different locations. Computers in the next 10 years would never be able to deal with that complexity from a autonomous point of view that is of value and profit making to most companies.
How often do you physically unload your HGV? How often do you unload it entirely on your own?
That’s the point of the post you quoted.
Nowhere have I said complex jobs will be automated in 10 years either. I’ve very clearly stated multiple times now that I think automation in 10 years time will be specific routes and hub to hub transport. Complex jobs where the driver is actually involved at the end point (for example controlling an attached forklift to deposit building materials etc) will not be automated for a while yet.
Again. The transport industry isn’t going to change overnight and no one has said it will. It will be a gradual transition with the low hanging fruit automated first (1), then a gradual move toward automating trips to end points in towns (2), then on to more complex multi stop jobs (3) and finally to complex/dangerous jobs like the transport of wide loads and dangerous goods. The latter is probably in the 30 year timeframe IMO
(1) Simple jobs transporting from main point A to main point B - say a factory to a distribution hub, or one supermarket warehouse to another.
(2) e.g. from a Tesco warehouse to a Tesco Store in a town.
(3) stopping at point A to load, then off to point B to offload some and load some more etc.
The current testing is about automating the low hanging fruit. Taking drinks from a Budweiser factory a couple of hundred miles along a main road to a distribution centre (see the link earlier).
That’s the point of the post you quoted.
Nowhere have I said complex jobs will be automated in 10 years either. I’ve very clearly stated multiple times now that I think automation in 10 years time will be specific routes and hub to hub transport. Complex jobs where the driver is actually involved at the end point (for example controlling an attached forklift to deposit building materials etc) will not be automated for a while yet.
Again. The transport industry isn’t going to change overnight and no one has said it will. It will be a gradual transition with the low hanging fruit automated first (1), then a gradual move toward automating trips to end points in towns (2), then on to more complex multi stop jobs (3) and finally to complex/dangerous jobs like the transport of wide loads and dangerous goods. The latter is probably in the 30 year timeframe IMO
(1) Simple jobs transporting from main point A to main point B - say a factory to a distribution hub, or one supermarket warehouse to another.
(2) e.g. from a Tesco warehouse to a Tesco Store in a town.
(3) stopping at point A to load, then off to point B to offload some and load some more etc.
The current testing is about automating the low hanging fruit. Taking drinks from a Budweiser factory a couple of hundred miles along a main road to a distribution centre (see the link earlier).
You have to pass a medical to drive. Bad drivers won't last long at all and you need a lot of experience before anyone will let you lose.
Driver do load-unload or supervise. Depends.
A couple of pages back you was saying in 5-10 years time we will be seeing full automation now you are saying "simple" tasks will be automated.
There is no such thing as a simple logistic route. This isn't transport tycoon. Your very simple analogy of a Budweiser truck going from a factory to a DC couldn't be any further from the truth. The DC would more than likely be on the factory so depending size and variety of the operation would have shunters taking finished product over to DC which is then split into locations this in turn would go to several hubs and then split down even further so your Budweiser would then get packaged up with groceries before being sent to individual stores. There is no special bud lorry going around delivering a couple of bottles here and there.
Could a automated lorry deliver coal from some quarry to a refinery in Northern Canada on an empty road in the next ten years? Hell yeah. Are the haulage companies going to splash out on very expensive new technology without some government backed incentive. Not in a million years.
There is no such thing as a simple logistic route. This isn't transport tycoon. Your very simple analogy of a Budweiser truck going from a factory to a DC couldn't be any further from the truth. The DC would more than likely be on the factory so depending size and variety of the operation would have shunters taking finished product over to DC which is then split into locations this in turn would go to several hubs and then split down even further so your Budweiser would then get packaged up with groceries before being sent to individual stores. There is no special bud lorry going around delivering a couple of bottles here and there.
Could a automated lorry deliver coal from some quarry to a refinery in Northern Canada on an empty road in the next ten years? Hell yeah. Are the haulage companies going to splash out on very expensive new technology without some government backed incentive. Not in a million years.
Don
Budget 2017: Philip Hammond to announce boost for driverless cars http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42040856
Now that the technology is here and on the road, the legislation to truly make them driverless is the only real stumbling block but the government is working to resolve this in the next 2-3 years.
In all likelihood the manufacturer will foot the bill.
Now that the technology is here and on the road, the legislation to truly make them driverless is the only real stumbling block but the government is working to resolve this in the next 2-3 years.
In all likelihood the manufacturer will foot the bill.
Tell that to the parents of those the died when the dustbin lorry crashed in Glasgow a couple of years ago. Or the drivers recently charged after blocking the motorway and causing multiple deaths after being drunk.
@adam cool dude. That’s not my analogy. That’s one of the actual test runs Otto and Budweiser actually did (last year).
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.the...f-driving-truck-budweiser-first-shipment-uber
When the tech matures enough haulage companies will only be too happy to reduce their costs by half (or more), especially in conjunction with electrification of the fleets. The days of lorry drivers are numbered, especially for simpler routes, whether they be in North America or across Europe. There’s nothing going to stop that.
I don’t think it needs another thread as the discussion is done, we’re just going round in circles. Some people will never be happy with a computer controlled vehicle, others see it as safer and cheaper. Those latter factors will win out in the end for most haulage companies and legislators.
Presumably you’ve also heard about the platooning trials going on around the world, and coming to the UK next year?
https://www.eutruckplatooning.com/About/default.aspx
Tesla claim that their tech can do full autonomous driving in both their passenger vehicles and (i believe ) their semi, but it’ll be interesting to see if that claim pans out or whether there will have to be a Gen2 to actually allow that.
Edit: and as for your coal comment. That won’t start in 10 years. Mostly because fully automated
https://qz.com/874589/rio-tinto-is-...rucks-to-haul-raw-materials-around-australia/
Last edited:
Seems to have had terrible effect on the standard of pilots.
So Budweiser has done one single trip on a pre planned route. That still needed the driver to do the main bulk of the complicated driving. You are really clutching at straws. In a nutshell that is a development of cruise control. Your original statement was we were going to have automation as soon as 5-10 years in the mainstream which is what I was arguing. We will have automation in the future that is definitely true but not as quick as you are saying.
Again that has nothing to do with what I was saying apart from i mentioned coal. That is tonka trucks moving about a very simple layout in a remote location over a very short distance.
Last edited: