Brexit thread - what happens next

Steedie · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:40

dowie said:
people do seem to be panicking a whole load more than necessary over this...

It gives them something to do and helps them feel better about losing as they get to make snide remarks about leave voters under the veil of selling concern and panic

muon · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:40

delta0 said:
He did have a plan. Resign and force a general election. The next leader needs a mandate and needs a general election to do that.

Except the Labour or Conservative party doesn't look like standing on an anti-EU platform. They just about might be able to get by on an EEA platform, but the will still anger a significant proportion of the 52% leave voters and the 48% of the remain voters.

So no mandate will exist unless UKIP sweeps to power.

TechMinerUK · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:41

Steedie said:
I didn't mean things will be all sunshine and rainbows in 2 years, I meant that we'll start to see if the benefits are, if any, that are available to us
But yeah I'll hold you to that

Seriously? I'm not a Brexit basher or Remain rumbler but two years seams extremely short for anything meaningful to benefit the economy, it takes two years to get out of the EU never mind establishing new trade and rejuvenation. 5 years absolute minimum I'd say

Mauller · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:41

Firestar_3x said:
Resurrecting a currency and printing money to try and start getting rid of your debt whilst trying to negotiate trade deals without the country collapsing, good luck i say, it seems to be hard enough without the Euro.

Indeed, however could the government of another country really stay in power if the call for a vote got loud enough?

Italy has more weight than people think, they are the third largest net contributor to the EU budget. If they leave after us then the EU won't be so stiff to shrug off certain parts of negotiation if italy joined the EFTA along with the UK.

And the EU is already panicking as it is due to the size of our own contribution.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...budget-funding-Britain-vote-Brexit-referendum

Raymond Lin · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:41

Jokester said:
Tell that to the Greeks, Spaniards, Italians, or Portugeuse.

Whose been saved by the Germans.

Steedie · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:42

TechMinerUK said:
Seriously? I'm not a Brexit basher or Remain rumbler but two years seams extremely short for anything meaningful to benefit the economy, it takes two years to get out of the EU never mind establishing new trade and rejuvenation. 5 years absolute minimum I'd say

Well by 2 years we'll need to have something in place, providing article 50 is triggered this year

Caged · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:42

Steedie said:
I didn't mean things will be all sunshine and rainbows in 2 years, I meant that we'll start to see if the benefits are, if any, that are available to us

But yeah I'll hold you to that

By fixed I mean that our position is in line with economic models predicting where we would have been without Brexit, not necessarily better off, just not worse off.

Not sure what metric to go by - individual purchasing power?

TechMinerUK · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:42

Steedie said:
Well by 2 years we'll need to have something in place, providing article 50 is triggered this year

True but that's just to get the ball rolling in the right direction. I'm sure we're capable but to see results they need time in place

dowie · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:43

Raymond Lin said:
Whose been saved by the Germans.

they're not out of the water yet...

Jono · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:43

I've got it!
Nigel Farage is married to a German. She must have brainwashed him into doing this to the country at the behest of Angela Merkel and co.... it all makes sense now.

Jokester · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:43

Raymond Lin said:
Whose been saved by the Germans.

And why did they need saved (or more kept on a lifeline)?

pooley · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:43

Jokester said:
Tell that to the Greeks, Spaniards, Italians, or Portugeuse.

don't forget ireland

dannyjo22 · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:44

dowie said:
people do seem to be panicking a whole load more than necessary over this...

It's so they can justify their bitterness. As if they thought everything would be instantly better. They should be directing the hate towards the man that bottled the last general election, giving a decision that should have been made purely by the elected government to people far too ill informed to make a good call, myself included. I didn't even want a vote.

Yet he made a deal to get himself elected, which has now cost him his job anyway. If the country comes down around our ears it's his fault.

TechMinerUK · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:44

Jono said:
I've got it!
Nigel Farage is married to a German. She must have brainwashed him into doing this to the country at the behest of Angela Merkel and co.... it all makes sense now.

Plot twist, it's Jean Claude in disguise

Steedie · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:44

Caged said:
By fixed I mean that our position is in line with economic models predicting where we would have been without Brexit, not necessarily better off, just not worse off.

Not sure what metric to go by - individual purchasing power?

Well people are basing their opinion on Brexit being this terrible thing off the back of 2 day's trading. So if we're using that, then I gues the state of the pound and the markets in 2 years would be a good metric to go by?

And while I don't think they'll be back to pre-Brexit levels, they'll certainly be a lot more positive, in my opinion of course

dowie · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:45

Steedie said:
It gives them something to do and helps them feel better about losing as they get to make snide remarks about leave voters under the veil of selling concern and panic

tis just weird... few days after the vote, the markets have reacted (post result) as pretty much everyone thought they would and apparently it is the end of the world...

Jokester · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:45

pooley said:
don't forget ireland

Ireland are ok, the circumstances of their bailout was more the EU forcing Eire to adhere to VAT rules etc.

They should never have agreed.

TechMinerUK · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:45

Steedie said:
Well people are basing their opinion on Brexit being this terrible thing off the back of 2 day's trading. So if we're using that, then I gues the state of the pound and the markets in 2 years would be a good metric to go by?
And while I don't think they'll be back to pre-Brexit levels, they'll certainly be a lot more positive, in my opinion of course

This I can agree with, it's not going to continue on a exponential decrease forever

delta0 · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:47

muon said:
Except the Labour or Conservative party doesn't look like standing on an anti-EU platform. They just about might be able to get by on an EEA platform, but the will still anger a significant proportion of the 52% leave voters and the 48% of the remain voters.

So no mandate will exist unless UKIP sweeps to power.

How many MPs are pro leave and how many pro stay? That would suggest which way parliament would vote.

dalehitchy1 · 27 Jun 2016 at 20:47

dowie said:
tis just weird... few days after the vote, the markets have reacted (post result) as pretty much everyone thought they would and apparently it is the end of the world...

we have not even left yet, once article 50 is envoked, expect to see another drop. Then factor in the 1 in 5 businesses at the meeting held today that said they will start moving jobs abroad once envoked. I wont expect at all of them will go through with it, but expect some to start leaving.