So, people are writing off Vettel and reaching conclusions after just 3 races?
And even better - they seem to have completely forgotten about his exploits over the past 4 years. Apparently winning 4 titles in a row is easy.
I'm not writing Vettel off quite yet. While Merc undoubtedly have a clear and strong advantage, especially in the dry, it's not insurmountable. People are surprised that Ricciardo has the edge on Vettel at the moment, but Vettel hasn't been on the back foot this much in F1 before (not since Toro Rosso, when he wasn't expected to fight for wins).
While Ricciardo is currently drubbing Vettel in qualifying (usually one of Vettel's strengths), ultimately he probably only beat him in Bahrain because Vettel took a punt on tyres at the start and hoped for an early safety car, which worked against him with the late safety car. It's arguable Vettel's only chance to make points on the Mercs at the moment is to take chances on strategy, but he is to amount a late challenge, he can't afford to throw points away willy-nilly.
Whether Vettel can enter the fight might largely depends on whether Rosberg can continue to push Hamilton. Hamilton held him off at Bahrain when Rosberg had the better tyres, but people forget Rosberg was challenging Hamilton on equal tyres too. A run of Rosberg form at the start of the European season, similar to Webber usually had at Red Bull, would make things interesting. Hamilton will have a drop in form at some point (he's normally prone to at least one wobbly a season which he lets get to his head - usually Nicole-related it seems). Rosberg seems rattled at the moment, but if he can get his head into gear and not do a Barrichello 2009, then it could just let Vettel into the picture.
Ultimately, with all that said, it's down to Renault producing more power and how quickly it happens. Without them gaining on Mercedes, Red Bull have no chance, irrespective of how much they improve the car.
