Can’t you understand that your entire argument is lost, right there?
The entire point from the start is that it’s more likely, and that’s enough to make the point.
'More likely' doesn't mean ****, though, unless you quantify
how much more likely.
+0.0000005% is "more likely"... And neither likelihood is any guarantee.
Certain types of people are "more likely" to commit a crime, but we don't lock them up unless they actually do commit a crime, and we (in the UK, at least) certainly don't lock up entire types of people based on a few statistics.
This is why the insurance companies haven’t all got PHDs in evolutionary biology - they don’t need it, a basic understanding of risk and statistics is enough.
The aforementioned Prius had very high safety ratings and should have been a very low risk for car accidents. You might say it is genetically predisposed to being a very safe car... and yet environmental and external influences instead led to it having one of the statistically highest accident rates.
Genetics are not a guarantee, and not even especially useful without knowing the environmental factors against which heritability measures them.
If genetics
were even a little bit better than currently, we'd be far more accurate in predicting which people will get which diseases rather than merely guessing that they are 'at risk'.
And this is the crux of the argument mentioned earlier, you just get muddled/confused by the presence of some uncertainty. No one is arguing that this is monocausal, pointing out that breed is a factor doesn't negate other aspects like the owners etc. aren't a factor.
As mentioned already, it's the factors that have the
greater influence on outcome which matter most. Genetics, while much more important than breed, are still far less influential than environmental factors, particularly in dogs that have a high environmental maleability.
Nor is it a claim that all dogs of the same breed are genetic clones of each other and will have exactly the same genetic disposition towards certain behaviours.
Breed-specific legislation hinges upon
that very presumption that all dogs of the same breed will have the same genetic disposition toward certain behaviours.
Well, that's false, dogs of the same breed are close to each other genetically which is why between-breed variance for these inherited behavior traits is much larger than within-breed variance as already pointed out, there's a paper that explains all this and which has been linked to a few times now.
Nope -
Breed-typical dogs show far less variance within breed than
breed-typical dogs across-breed. The study you posted specifically looked at dogs that were considered typical and representative of their breed, so
of course you'd see a high level of conformity to breed-standard. You're essentially looking just at dogs that would make good Crufts candidates, rather than examples representative of their breeds as a whole.
A wider study including both dogs that are not typical of their breed, despite genetically conforming to their breed, and of crossbred dogs shows far greater variance within breed and stronger inter-breed relationship than that by the narrower-focus on breed-typical dogs. This study has also been posted several times, now.
It still did not identify any behaviour which was considered breed-specific. Rather, it identified a number of
different breeds that all
share the same high heritability for certain traits... noting, as you will of course know, that
heritabale traits are not the same as
inherited traits.
It's a relatively rare breed still yet it's responsible for half the deaths from dogs in the UK... we can quite easily infer from that that it's also responsible for a disproportionate number of the serious injuries that don't result in deaths too (and there will inevitably be many more of those). Something ttaskmaster was trying to dismiss earlier.
You can try and infer whatever you like... and yet there are breeds of large, powerful dogs that rank high for attacks but have virtually no kills, so it doesn't necessarily follow.
I expect if you did investigate, you'd find it's less rare than you expected, but primarily unregistered, and has a fairly low ratio of attacks:kills compared to similarly built dogs.
Treating all breeds as presenting the same risk or trying to pretend that breed isn't a significant factor here is just denying reality, breed is clearly a factor here both in terms of physique and behaviour.
Genetics is the factor, not the breed.
The problem is,
and has always been, the breeders who breed from undesirable bloodlines to promote undesirable traits (regardless of breed), and then put the dogs in environments which exacerbate the undesirable traits.
We should ban this dog before it becomes more popular, the legislation is already in place to simply do that, just add it to the list. If the government did that then existing XL bullys would need to be neutered and only walked with a leash and muzzle and people couldn't legally breed them.
We'd only be having this thread again every few years, as people would each time cross-breed something else to get around the new bans.