Ebola scaremongering?

[TheMightyTen]

HPA, NIMR and a few others have BSL4 labs, pretty sure they'd be used too.

/Pedantic mode on

As the HPA doesn't exist anymore it has no cat 4's at all

/Pedantic mode off


There's been no real "gear up" across PHE apart from a few paper scenarios run and a few resource invs done.

 

[Devlish]

The NHS doesn't have the resources to cope with a real outbreak. If these 700 patients where in the UK, it would have crippled the NHS trusts in the area due to having to set up temporary quarantine zones and have them staffed properly, without negatively effecting other non-Ebola related care elsewhere.

You could say that about almost any contagious disease where 700 patients suddenly turn up - swine flu for instance, although there are plenty of contingencies in place. The likelihood of it is minimal though and even if it does get here, getting 700 people infected when the population is warned would not happen with ebola.

 

[James J]

You could say that about almost any contagious disease where 700 patients suddenly turn up - swine flu for instance, although there are plenty of contingencies in place. The likelihood of it is minimal though and even if it does get here, getting 700 people infected when the population is warned would not happen with ebola.

There aren't many diseases on the planet that have a 90% mortality rate a few weeks after contracting it though, plus no effective treatment. Even the most dangerous mdr bacterial infections such as a. Baumannii still have last resort treatment options that the NHS can use to it's advantage and these are all "at risk patient" only contagions. Ebola doesn't fit any of that sadly, making it far more dangerous.

 

[jsmoke]

I would be more worried about contaminating things like water supplies or animals, any biologists here?

If somebody infected went for a swim in a lake for example how much would that infect the lake, do viruses multiple/breed, I think they need host cells to breed not that I come to think of it so I guess the answer would be no unless in a human or animal.

Similar to influenza I suppose, I think what would save us is the fast onset of symptoms.

We are more in risk of a deadlier strain of influenza.

 

[badcompany]

I would be more worried about contaminating things like water supplies or animals, any biologists here?

If somebody infected went for a swim in a lake for example how much would that infect the lake, do viruses multiple/breed, I think they need host cells to breed not that I come to think of it so I guess the answer would be no unless in a human or animal.

Similar to influenza I suppose, I think what would save us is the fast onset of symptoms.

We are more in risk of a deadlier strain of influenza.

Up to 21 days is NOT fast onset ?

 

[timmy222]

We have

Workers out in all three infected areas atm, and we are having some top level meetings on what to do.
It is a half a billion pound mining operation,so the stakes are high.
Safety of the workers must be first on the list.

 

[jsmoke]

Up to 21 days is NOT fast onset ?

It's a LOT faster than HIV, once 'they' clicked on what it was going on it would be shut down pretty fast in a country like ours, after doing a fair bit of reading on ebola it's not something that worries me too much in regards to wiping us out. If it was airborne then that would be a serious problem. Although that depends on the definition of airborne, is contamination via coughing regarded as airborne, if so I think ebola is under that category. Albeit it's a brutal way to go if you do go into stage 2 hemorrhage so it seems.

Many many more people will/do die of cancers, obesity, road accidents, flu, the cold(heat wise) et cetera, however.

 

[fornowagain]

I would be more worried about contaminating things like water supplies or animals, any biologists here?

If somebody infected went for a swim in a lake for example how much would that infect the lake, do viruses multiple/breed, I think they need host cells to breed not that I come to think of it so I guess the answer would be no unless in a human or animal.

Similar to influenza I suppose, I think what would save us is the fast onset of symptoms.

We are more in risk of a deadlier strain of influenza.

Just reading a pathogen data sheet on it here. It can survive awhile (three to ten days apparently) outside the body and doesn't take a lot to get infected but like you say needs a host to replicate. So it won't contaminate water supplies and can be killed with soap or bleach, so easily sterilised. But some animals, rodents, bats & pigs can act as intermediary hosts.

INFECTIOUS DOSE: 1 – 10 aerosolized organisms are sufficient to cause infection in humans.

INCUBATION PERIOD: Two to 21 days, more often 4 – 9 days

MODE OF TRANSMISSION: In an outbreak, it is hypothesized that the first patient becomes infected as a result of contact with an infected animal. Person-to-person transmission occurs via close personal contact with an infected individual or their body fluids during the late stages of infection or after death. Nosocomial infections can occur through contact with infected body fluids due to the reuse of unsterilized syringes, needles, or other medical equipment contaminated with these fluids. Humans may be infected by handling sick or dead non-human primates and are also at risk when handling the bodies of deceased humans in preparation for funerals, suggesting possible transmission through aerosol droplets. In the laboratory, infection through small-particle aerosols has been demonstrated in primates, and airborne spread among humans is strongly suspected, although it has not yet been conclusively demonstrated. The importance of this route of transmission is not clear. Poor hygienic conditions can aid the spread of the virus.

COMMUNICABILITY: Communicable as long as blood, secretions, organs, or semen contain the virus. Ebola virus has been isolated from semen 61 days after the onset of illness, and transmission through semen has occurred 7 weeks after clinical recover

SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: The virus can survive in liquid or dried material for a number of days. Infectivity is found to be stable at room temperature or at 4°C for several days, and indefinitely stable at -70°C. Infectivity can be preserved by lyophilisation.

 

[Xordium]

The NHS doesn't have the resources to cope with a real outbreak. If these 700 patients where in the UK, it would have crippled the NHS trusts in the area due to having to set up temporary quarantine zones and have them staffed properly, without negatively effecting other non-Ebola related care elsewhere.

Well if 700 people turned up with appendicitis it would cause problems. But these 700 people are spread across a large geographic area and timescale and it seemingly isn't spreading in an environment far more suitable for its spread than our country.

There aren't many diseases on the planet that have a 90% mortality rate a few weeks after contracting it though, plus no effective treatment.

Ebola (most strains including this one) does not have a 90% mortality rate when properly treated. And there are multiple effective treatments and one potentially good curative resource.

 

[James J]

Well if 700 people turned up with appendicitis it would cause problems. But these 700 people are spread across a large geographic area and timescale and it seemingly isn't spreading in an environment far more suitable for its spread than our country.



Ebola (most strains including this one) does not have a 90% mortality rate when properly treated. And there are multiple effective treatments and one potentially good curative resource.

Appendicitis is easily treated, so not really as it would be relatively straight forward to filter the patients throughout other trusts. More of a logistical nightmare than anything else.

There is no treatment for Ebola. You are getting seriously confused with people having SYMPTOMS of Ebola treated.

 

[jsmoke]

Appendicitis is easily treated, so not really as it would be relatively straight forward to filter the patients throughout other trusts. More of a logistical nightmare than anything else.

There is no treatment for Ebola. You are getting seriously confused with people having SYMPTOMS of Ebola treated.

I wouldn't say there is no treatment for ebola, there is no direct cure as we public know of, but it can be treated with general medical practices such as rehydration, blood transfusions, and then there is this mysterious serum that the US have supplied so I guess some kind of antiviral drugs will appear in the future.

 

[James J]

I wouldn't say there is no treatment for ebola, there is no direct cure as we public know of, but it can be treated with general medical practices such as rehydration, blood transfusions, and then there is this mysterious serum that the US have supplied so I guess some kind of antiviral drugs will appear in the future.

All of which treat the SYMPTOMS OF EBOLA....................

Yeah a serum that no one knows about as is obviously untested on humans = not a treatment either.

Edit,

What you are implying is that breaking your arm and taking morphine for the pain is going to fix your arm lol.

 

[fornowagain]

Pain management is part of the 'treatment' for a broken arm. True there is no specific treatment or more specifically a cure for Ebola, but supportive care as described earlier is currently the treatment for Ebola.

 

[Xordium]

Appendicitis is easily treated, so not really as it would be relatively straight forward to filter the patients throughout other trusts. More of a logistical nightmare than anything else.

Appendicitis is typically treated by surgery. Often with a need to act quickly. I thought you would say something like whilst overlooking the need for surgeons, theatre technicians, anaesthetists etc.

I note you also ignored that the 700 cases have had a wide geographical area over a quite considerable period of time.

There is no treatment for Ebola. You are getting seriously confused with people having SYMPTOMS of Ebola treated.

Can you try reading my posts before getting all excitable. You failed to acknowledge that the fatality rate is not 90% like you stated. You then state I got confused between treatment of symptoms and the pathogen. I never made that distinction - you did. You will note the end of my sentence includes the phrase "curative resource" thereby suggesting that the first part was on about something else. That 'curative resource' has shown complete success in trials on animals and during the one time it was used on a human. So to say there is no known cure is wrong. Just because that information is not readily available in the public domain doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Also treatment of symptoms of a disease process is treatment of the disease. To say otherwise is just pedantic and stupid semantics.

 

[James J]

It's not treatment for the disease though, it's supportive care. I don't see how you can't get your head around the difference.

I know how appendicitis is treated too, seen as I see at least 5 of them daily...

 

[Xordium]

So you see 5 appendicitis cases in one day in one small part of the UK. You don't think we could cope with 700 cases of another spread across all of the UK over half a year ... kind of ignoring this aren't you - you have attributed what happens in one hospital on one day and are ignoring. Also are you saying the fatality rate is 90% as you originally stated or are you willing to accept you were wrong on that too.

Anyway moving on. Are you saying there is no 'cure' for Ebola or indications we have a good potential cure if given the greenlight.

700 cases over 6 months say with an acute stay of 2 months for each (elevating this to save arguments) = 233 cases at any time. You could task one HDU or ITU in each region and still have extra capacity. Routine admissions would be stopped therefore freeing capacity and travel would be restricted thereby reducing capacity.

 

[James J]

Not gonna sit here and argue semantics with a guy who gets all his info from Wikipedia

I'm out

 

[Dj_Jestar]

So you see 5 appendicitis cases in one day in one small part of the UK. You don't think we could cope with 700 cases of another spread across all of the UK over half a year ... kind of ignoring this aren't you - you have attributed what happens in one hospital on one day and are ignoring. Also are you saying the fatality rate is 90% as you originally stated or are you willing to accept you were wrong on that too.

Anyway moving on. Are you saying there is no 'cure' for Ebola or indications we have a good potential cure if given the greenlight.

700 cases over 6 months say with an acute stay of 2 months for each (elevating this to save arguments) = 233 cases at any time. You could task one HDU or ITU in each region and still have extra capacity. Routine admissions would be stopped therefore freeing capacity and travel would be restricted thereby reducing capacity.

Please learn to use a question mark.

 

[Xordium]

Not gonna sit here and argue semantics with a guy who gets all his info from Wikipedia

I'm out

Fine response there:

So you were wrong on the 90% figure but won't admit it.
You've ignored those figures I just posted there as you had kind of forgot that the outbreak has been over a large area and over a large timespan.
And you also refused to backtrack on whether there was a potential cure in the waiting.

Way to go to make an appeal to expertise and then show you don't actually have any before resorting to personal attacks. I was hoping the thread could be informative rather than argumentative maybe you just had a bad day and had to let off some steam.

For those that are interested there is a very good hope in a vaccine and animal trials have proved to be totally successful. Naturally due to the lack of interest (financially) before this recent episode then the stimulus was never there or the opportunity to actual test it on human subjects.

Anyway for those interested in the literature you can find out more here: http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/204/suppl_3/S1075.full.pdf

Note we have got a lot further along this road since that article.

 

[Xordium]

Please learn to use a question mark.