Energy Prices (Strictly NO referrals!)

Best explanation I've seen of how the UK end consumer is getting screwed energy cost wise. Runs rather contrary to what Ed Miliband and Jonathan Brearley of OFGEM have been putting out there. (09:39-13:25)


(Do excuse the pounds not pence error at the beginning)

Price is now about 87p/therm, compared with 62p/therm when this video was made six months ago (the same as it was in 2019).

Still very different from the Ed Miliband statement that the wholesale price for gas is 3x as much as it was prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

It seems he cherry picked a number that sounds believable from some time during the Corona lockdowns.

WhyNNhh.png


The fact the market for gas started going wild many months before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022 is another topic, but makes Mr Miliband even more wrong.
 
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Price is now about 87p/therm, compared with 62p/therm when this video was made six months ago (the same as it was in 2019).

Still very different from the Ed Miliband statement that the wholesale price for gas is 3x as much as it was prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

It seems he cherry picked a number that sounds believable from some time during the Corona lockdowns.

WhyNNhh.png


The fact the market for gas started going wild many months before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022 is another topic, but makes Mr Miliband even more wrong.

Greg (head of Octopus) is also quoting 3x so there must be something in it.
 
Greg (head of Octopus) is also quoting 3x so there must be something in it.

We have to go back to Oct 2020 when the price was last 30p/therm for the statement to be true that we're now paying 3x the wholesale gas price we were before the Ukraine invasion.

In reality the wholesale gas price on 14th Feb 2022, a week before the invasion, was 163p/therm.

I guess they didn't have the cheek to go with the 9.63p/therm of May 2020. In which case we are now paying nearly 9x the wholesale price of gas.
 
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Pre-COVID, it was 43p/therm (October 2019), COVID started hitting China not long after that which shut down their economy and suppressed energy prices.

Yes, it is a lot more now, but once you factor in inflation, 43p is now 53p so in reality its 'only' 1.7X the price.
 
There are other costs than simply the delivered cost. We know that a lot of the more infrastructure based costs are increasing rapidly.
There was also a switch in the mix of gas supply.
People forget that the whole supply distribution changed and we imported a lot of shale based gas from the US.

When the boss of Octopus says that its cost them 3x more, forgive me but I am going to go with that, he's got no reason to lie and will have better info about what its really costing them to supply.

Also, inflation is irrelevant when people are talking about their bills.
It should be relevant, but people just ignore it. So using actual cost for all time periods is relevant, you cant mix and match some inflationary adjusted with some not.
And to some extent thats probably sensible, people expect pay rises to cover inflation.
Most people have had inflation thats so low for so long that they tend to look at costs over time periods and ignore it.

I think people get a bit confused on commodity stuff and assume the tracked cost is it in total. Its really not.
 
Price is now about 87p/therm, compared with 62p/therm when this video was made six months ago (the same as it was in 2019).

Still very different from the Ed Miliband statement that the wholesale price for gas is 3x as much as it was prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

It seems he cherry picked a number that sounds believable from some time during the Corona lockdowns.

WhyNNhh.png


The fact the market for gas started going wild many months before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022 is another topic, but makes Mr Miliband even more wrong.
To be fair looking at that graph summer 2020, is within those claims, 2021 looks like it was the start of upward projection which then greatly accelerated in autumn. Shame we dont have pre 2020 data on the graph.

Americans are blaming our issues primarily on the high gas reliance for electric and imports. Which is interesting as we have people here claiming nuclear is almost as expensive as gas, yet it doesnt seem to be the case in countries with a large nuclear supply.
 
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2020 was historically low gas prices due to the collapse in demand due to lockdowns. You have to go back about 15-20 years to see similar prices.

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This is why I wanted to see the earlier data points, as the first graph gave no indication if 2020 was the norm or not, often data is truncated to serve a purpose. Thanks.
 
2020 was deffo a low point for fossils, demand dropped a lot

The thing that caught many people was that many people were coming off 2020/early 2021 pricing when the prices went mental as the economy started to fire again late 2021 and then Russia invaded Ukraine
They were already jumping when in 2021 the global economy opened up again but anyone who signed a deal up to roughly mid 2021 saw a massive price increase.
 
Americans are blaming our issues primarily on the high gas reliance for electric and imports. Which is interesting as we have people here claiming nuclear is almost as expensive as gas, yet it doesnt seem to be the case in countries with a large nuclear supply.
Yeah all the imported gas and oil shame we don't have vast wind and tidal free energy available. Oh wait..
France has access to uranium from its former colonies. Its not produced here anymore than gas is
 
The other nuclear heavy countries being referenced is presumably France.

The French nuclear industry is heavily subsidised by taxpayers. They are paying for it one way or another, just not via unit rates.

New nuclear has also got a lot more expensive to meet the latest safety requirements. We simply wouldn’t build nuclear power stations in the same way as we did 30 years ago. New ones are built to higher standards.

Have a look how much the new French nuclear power stations are costing the French taxpayer, if anything we’ve benefitted a bit from all the ‘learning’ they have gone through over the last decade of them trying to build their equivalent of Hinkley point C.
 
That was my point - EDF own and operate a number of windfarms/nuclear plants in the UK - do the profits from these ventures get used to help their owners, the French Government, subsidise the energy within France.
Plus we buy electricity from them most days. I think they’re also building Hinkley Point C.
 
That was my point - EDF own and operate a number of windfarms/nuclear plants in the UK - do the profits from these ventures get used to help their owners, the French Government, subsidise the energy within France.
Yes basically although there may be outside investment in their foreign operations.
 
Octopus did something interesting over the bank holiday:
When you charge up after your Bank Holiday adventures this weekend, it could be even cheaper than usual.

Here’s what you need to do to get the Bank Holiday Recharge:

- Plug in on the night of Monday 26th August

- Keep the car unplugged on Tuesday 27th August night

Do this, and we’ll make any Intelligent-scheduled EV charging on Monday night 50% off. (That’s just EV charging, so you can skip the tumble dryer marathon!)

Why are we doing this?

Monday and Tuesday night are a big opportunity to demonstrate the power of Intelligent drivers – we unlock mega-cheap prices for Intelligent drivers by charging your cars flexibly to support the grid. By avoiding busy times and making the most of renewables, we can nab cheaper wholesale prices and get compensation through grid balancing schemes.
 
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