EV general discussion

[ICDP]

They can’t if they want to play by WTO rules. It’s tariffs on all cars coming into the EU (not covered by another FTA) or nothing. They already have a 10% import tariff on cars coming from outside the EU. Tesla, Polestar, MG etc are already subject to it.


Many of them are partly or wholly owed by the Chinese government make of that what you will but they basically have unlimited money.

Just like the likes of GM, Ford etc in the states, they will not be allowed to go bust because they are too important to fail now.

BYD makes as many lithium iron batteries as anyone else at this point. It’s their core business and what they did before they started making cars, buses etc.

I mean that the Europeans will find a way to subsidise and protect their indigenous car manufacturers, WTO or not. Similar to what the US is doing one the semi conductor front.

The idea of a global economy has gone out the window with the Ukraine invasion, chip shortages and the Chinese threat to Taiwan. There is not a chance in hell we will see a Chinese monopoly in the European or US car markets. Not because people don’t want cheap cars, but because western governments can’t allow it for political and economic reasons. China is a belligerent power and the west aren’t going to let them take that much leverage over them. Frankly nor should they allow it.

BRICS is the new threat as far as the western powers are concerned and the invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated that threat.

Just my thoughts.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

It looks like the Model S and X are not coming back to the U.K.

All RHD orders have been cancelled and refunded and the website now says LHD only.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

We really should just bite the bullet and switch to the other side of the road

I know the Brexit frothers would lose more of their tiny minds but it would not only bring some more niche vehicles to our shores (import yourself if manufacturer doesnt) but in general lower costs since its far easier to import the same car from elsewhere if the UK based markups are high.

 

[jpaul]

yes we'll do the same as Biden and europeans, with subsidies to protect home manufacturers against the chinese, but who is left with a national BEV production plan,
jaguar/tata still trying to blackmail government for subsidy on battery factory, aussie buyout of british volt doesn't look promising since not bleeding edge tech collarobation with catl etc.
(as was said on newsnight last night labour/kier needs to say his manifesto will fix the brexit/eu trade deals)

-

concerns on polestar too, like aforementioned lucid

May 11 (Reuters) - Swedish electric vehicle (EV) maker Polestar lowered its 2023 production guidance on Thursday and said it would cut headcount by 10%, citing a delayed production start for its Polestar 3 and a challenging environment for the industry.

The auto maker said it now expected to produce between 60,000 and 70,000 cars this year, versus the previously predicted 80,000.
...
Polestar said the production start of its Polestar 3 would be delayed until the first quarter of 2024 instead of the initial mid-2023 start. The company said the delay was due to Volvo Cars - which produces its cars and is delaying its own EX90 - having to do further software development and testing.

......

Polestar has said previously it has sufficient funds to see it through 2023, after it received $1.6 billion in financing in November from its two biggest shareholders Volvo Cars and Li Shufu-controlled PSD Investment,

However, it will still need further funding to get through the next few years.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

It looks like you might be able to get one as a LHD but I can’t see anyone doing it other than a few Tesla die hards getting a plaid.

Why would anyone else bother with the agro and the obvious issues that come with spare parts, resale, insurance and well driving a LHD car in the U.K.?

 

[bigmike20vt]

We really should just bite the bullet and switch to the other side of the road

I know the Brexit frothers would lose more of their tiny minds but it would not only bring some more niche vehicles to our shores (import yourself if manufacturer doesnt) but in general lower costs since its far easier to import the same car from elsewhere if the UK based markups are high.

I am not against it in principle but it would be a decade or more of utter pain and increased accidents , not to mention the expense for the cross over period.
we have coped this long , I think we may as well wait now until the majority of cars are autonomous ......

how would roundabouts work tho. wouldn't they need to all be redesigned as well as on / off rams on the motorway (maybe not... I haven't really put much thought into it)

 

[bigmike20vt]

It looks like the Model S and X are not coming back to the U.K.

All RHD orders have been cancelled and refunded and the website now says LHD only.

I wonder if it will make 2nd hand ones go up in value as more desirable as "rare" or if it will make the drop due to less supply of parts etc. as someone who tends to always assume the worse I am glad my deposit didn't go on a 2nd hand model S

 

[Deleted User 298457]

It looks like the Model S and X are not coming back to the U.K.

All RHD orders have been cancelled and refunded and the website now says LHD only.

Binning the S seems nuts. So y only?

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Binning the S seems nuts. So y only?

Model 3 and Model Y for now.

Sales of Model S and X were pretty small fry in the U.K. and in my view, way too expensive.

A model S with similar performance to a long range Model 3 and a price tag starting at around £65k would have been a much better sell IMO.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

I am not against it in principle but it would be a decade or more of utter pain and increased accidents , not to mention the expense for the cross over period.
we have coped this long , I think we may as well wait now until the majority of cars are autonomous ......

how would roundabouts work tho. wouldn't they need to all be redesigned as well as on / off rams on the motorway (maybe not... I haven't really put much thought into it)

For sure would be some work.
I remember reading about the last nation to do it, was norway or sweden or somewhere like that

Was a short term spike in accidents etc then it settled down.

Roundabouts would generally be fine, some with particularly funky exits/entrances may need some work
Yet on off for single direction would be the biggest issue, but again only where its not "normal" if you have an on and off ramp at each exit then you still have an on and off ramp.
But the ones with only say an off would be an issue.

Your right though, really with autonomus as close as it is thats the point to do it. When we decide autonomous has right of way and the old manual drivers have to give way then do it then.
Much of the infrastructure and way we don things is to take account of humans with all their failings and that makes adoption harder.
Autonomus has its own issues of course but we make them harder by asking them to be able to deal with irrational and unpredictable humans.

 

[Deleted User 298457]

Model 3 and Model Y for now.

Sales of Model S and X were pretty small fry in the U.K. and in my view, way too expensive.

A model S with similar performance to a long range Model 3 and a price tag starting at around £65k would have been a much better sell IMO.

Ah yeah I forgot about the 3. Those models are clear cut for the UK tbf.

 

[sandys]

Why would anyone else bother with the agro and the obvious issues that come with spare parts, resale, insurance and well driving a LHD car in the U.K.?

I couldn't trust Tesla to be honest, they don't care about residuals etc for people who buy and are happy to screw you, so I can see them clearing LHD stock and introducing RHD later.

If they do a >50% discount I might reconsider of course, driving on the other side is not the end of the world, did it for a few years the other way when I lived in Sicily.

 

[SDK^]

concerns on polestar too,

Yep - I saw that delay on the Polestar 3 coming, hence why I cancelled my order in March for a BMW iX

Polestar are better placed than Lucid -

1. They sell cars
2. They don't forecast 100k sales of a car above £150k in 12 months (which is more than Merc sell S-Class's). Which is what Lucid did around 2020 time.

 

[jigger]

The view across the car industry analysts is that Tesla and the Chinese companies will force most of the legacy makers into bankruptcy.
Looking at BYD BEV growth from 2020 - it’s 4x VW and more than Tesla.

Possibly but the these makers first need to establish themselves.

 

[lordrobs]

Your right though, really with autonomus as close as it is thats the point to do it. When we decide autonomous has right of way and the old manual drivers have to give way then do it then.
Much of the infrastructure and way we don things is to take account of humans with all their failings and that makes adoption harder.
Autonomus has its own issues of course but we make them harder by asking them to be able to deal with irrational and unpredictable humans.

This entire paragraph seems back to front to me! "When we decide autonomous has the right of way..." Why would that ever be adopted as a policy? Even if it was how would you know whether a car was driven by AI or not?

The world should be designed with us pesky humans in mind, failings et al. If the AI can't deal with that then it simply isn't ready yet.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

This entire paragraph seems back to front to me! "When we decide autonomous has the right of way..." Why would that ever be adopted as a policy? Even if it was how would you know whether a car was driven by AI or not?

The world should be designed with us pesky humans in mind, failings et al. If the AI can't deal with that then it simply isn't ready yet.

Why is it back to front?
Eventually its likely the majority of cars will be self driving capable. At that point ditching all the stuff that is there to make it possible for humans to interact with the roads and make it so that we can optimise the self driving approach seems just logical.

Eg things like speed limits, joining roads can be far more optimised without dumb decision poor humans involved.
Take roundabouts how often have you ended up stuck on a large roundabout as someone blocks an exit by undertaking a maneuver they shouldn't, same for yellow boxes etc
Traffic lights can be sped up, no need to allow so much dumb human may attempt to jump the lights time.
In fact I have seen simulations that predict traffic lights would probably not even need to exist, the cars would in effect pre negotiate their passage in advance as they approach the junction and there would be cars constantly crossing narrowly in front of each other.
Seems some way off yet but with enough processing power not hard. No way we would be able to have that with humans though, look what happens when a set of lights fails, you always get that aggressive moron who can't wait whilst the majority are sensibly taking turns.

 

[jigger]

Why is it back to front?
Eventually its likely the majority of cars will be self driving capable. At that point ditching all the stuff that is there to make it possible for humans to interact with the roads and make it so that we can optimise the self driving approach seems just logical.

Eg things like speed limits, joining roads can be far more optimised without dumb decision poor humans involved.
Take roundabouts how often have you ended up stuck on a large roundabout as someone blocks an exit by undertaking a maneuver they shouldn't, same for yellow boxes etc
Traffic lights can be sped up, no need to allow so much dumb human may attempt to jump the lights time.
In fact I have seen simulations that predict traffic lights would probably not even need to exist, the cars would in effect pre negotiate their passage in advance as they approach the junction and there would be cars constantly crossing narrowly in front of each other.
Seems some way off yet but with enough processing power not hard. No way we would be able to have that with humans though, look what happens when a set of lights fails, you always get that aggressive moron who can't wait whilst the majority are sensibly taking turns.

We can barely keep roads surfaced to an unacceptable level, never mind pay for roads to be adapted to self driving cars.

Self driving cars are never going to happen.

 

[FerretBoy]

I was toying with the idea of getting the plaid, this saves me some money I didn't need to spend. I only liked the idea as the performance per £ ratio was insane.

 

[lordrobs]

Why is it back to front?
Eventually its likely the majority of cars will be self driving capable. At that point ditching all the stuff that is there to make it possible for humans to interact with the roads and make it so that we can optimise the self driving approach seems just logical.

Eg things like speed limits, joining roads can be far more optimised without dumb decision poor humans involved.
Take roundabouts how often have you ended up stuck on a large roundabout as someone blocks an exit by undertaking a maneuver they shouldn't, same for yellow boxes etc
Traffic lights can be sped up, no need to allow so much dumb human may attempt to jump the lights time.
In fact I have seen simulations that predict traffic lights would probably not even need to exist, the cars would in effect pre negotiate their passage in advance as they approach the junction and there would be cars constantly crossing narrowly in front of each other.
Seems some way off yet but with enough processing power not hard. No way we would be able to have that with humans though, look what happens when a set of lights fails, you always get that aggressive moron who can't wait whilst the majority are sensibly taking turns.

What you are suggesting needs 100% shift to autonomous driving. You can't have 90% of the cars on the roads zooming through junctions criss-crossing with fractions of a second of gap while 10% of the cars are outside of the loop. The only way such a process might work is if said autonomous cars, through their communication with each other, identify a vehicle outside of the negotiated pattern (ie. human driven) and yield to said driver before recommencing their optimised travel. Hence why I think it is back to front to be talking about yielding to autonomous vehicles.

This is all theoretical anyway. The fact is the roads are as they are, "dumb" humans will be a part of the driver mix for a hell of a long time and "self driving" will be an ever improving AI effort to work alongside those factors.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

What you are suggesting needs 100% shift to autonomous driving. You can't have 90% of the cars on the roads zooming through junctions criss-crossing with fractions of a second of gap while 10% of the cars are outside of the loop. The only way such a process might work is if said autonomous cars, through their communication with each other, identify a vehicle outside of the negotiated pattern (ie. human driven) and yield to said driver before recommencing their optimised travel. Hence why I think it is back to front to be talking about yielding to autonomous vehicles.

This is all theoretical anyway. The fact is the roads are as they are, "dumb" humans will be a part of the driver mix for a hell of a long time and "self driving" will be an ever improving AI effort to work alongside those factors.

It will yes which was why I said when we decide it should have "right of way". Thats maybe 20, maybe 40 years off yet. To me its the logical end point.
I would suggest when 90% are being held back by 10% then its probably the right time.

You can start with stuff like a lane for self driving on motorways. Where the Ev type trains can operate and its banned for a human to go. Eg say outer lane of motorways.
Over time you can slowly increase the areas where EV only operation or EV priority is implemented.
You don't have to, nor would you actually logically go to end state day one.
Stuff like the no traffic lights would be well down the list, its a potential significant improvement to traffic flow but is 100% incompatible with humans. They prove on just about every car journey ever they cannot follow rules.

I suspect a lot of the general public would adopt far faster if they can simply sit back in the outside lane of the motorway at 90mph whilst the car does the driving, rather than sitting in the other lanes at 70 max.

Time is needed to improve some stuff we just insist on being dumb with. Like road signs. Not adding a specific machine readable version alongside human readable versions means that when someone puts a sign limit for say 50mph on a 60mph road with a lorry sign underneath ( ie saying lorries 50mph max) it can fool the cars systems to detect limits. If it was a kind of simple bar code type thing then it could ignore the human versions and read one it would get correct.
Its that type of stuff thats holding it back more than anything.

Thats what I mean by yield, we move to optimising for the majority benefit rather than specifically a human trying to navigate a junction.