Here's what we can say right now: Based on the indicated ranges, the rear-wheel-drive Tesla Model 3 Standard Range will be rated for around 261 miles and the Model 3 Dual-Motor Long Range will land around 337 miles. The 2023 versions of these cars are rated for 272 miles and 333 miles, respectively, which suggests that the Model 3 Standard Range might actually get a worse rating than the car it replaces.
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That's surprising, since the batteries and motors are unchanged and Tesla claims the updated Model 3 is more aerodynamic than the outgoing model. It's possible (but unlikely, we think) that new features like acoustically insulated glass and the rear touchscreen display have pushed the Model 3 into a higher weight class for EPA testing. We think it's more likely that Tesla is simply underpromising right now so that it can overdeliver when the official numbers drop