Exclusive: The AMD Inside Story, Navi GPU Roadmap And The Cost Of Zen To Gamers

AndreiD · 4 Sep 2018 at 21:59

Even if it's only a shrink a Polaris chip would be a great mid-range contender for 1080p gaming.

Armageus · 4 Sep 2018 at 22:01

AndreiD said:
Even if it's only a shrink a Polaris chip would be a great mid-range contender for 1080p gaming.

It would be great timing to sew up the "low-end" before Nvidia release the 2030/2050/2060. Can't see it happening but equally don't believe that AMD will have no products at all until next year.

Edit:
Oems normally want to see a "new" product for back to school or christmas even if it is just a rebrand

AndreiD · 4 Sep 2018 at 22:15

Earliest I can see them releasing a new 7nm GPU is probably Q1 2019, think the only 7nm products they'll release in 2018 are low volume HPC market ones.

LePhuronn · 4 Sep 2018 at 22:24

FoxEye said:
I'm afraid that the way it is written you could interpret the meaning as almost anything, and no interpretation is obviously correct.

Well, except the part about Navi-based graphics cards landing in 2018

AndreiD · 4 Sep 2018 at 22:30

Consumer or pro/HPC Navi cards?

4K8KW10 · 4 Sep 2018 at 22:54

Consumer.

TSMC is in mass production of Kirin 980 7nm chip that isn't that small (est. ~90 sq. mm?) right now and has been in for at least a couple of months...

jjgreenwood · 4 Sep 2018 at 23:18

They must be desperate to replace vega, that HBM is probably costing them a fortune. I reckon they'll release this as soon as they possibly can, I'm still not expecting it to set the world alight though.

AndreiD · 4 Sep 2018 at 23:20

Don't think we'll see consumer 7nm this year, there's a reason 7nm HVM is starting with small mobile SoCs. Apple will most likely eat most of TSMC's production capacity anyway.
But I'd love to be wrong since the GPU market needs some competition.

FoxEye · 4 Sep 2018 at 23:22

AndreiD said:
Don't think we'll see consumer 7nm this year, there's a reason 7nm HVM is starting with small mobile SoCs. Apple will most likely eat most of TSMC's production capacity anyway.
But I'd love to be wrong since the GPU market needs some competition.

Margins for the PRO stuff are so much greater. It just wouldn't make sense to split your first production between PRO and consumer.

jjgreenwood · 4 Sep 2018 at 23:25

FoxEye said:
Margins for the PRO stuff are so much greater. It just wouldn't make sense to split your first production between PRO and consumer.

Not anymore Nvidia has sorted that out now

4K8KW10 · 4 Sep 2018 at 23:26

Can't AMD simply purchase the needed equipment, install it somewhere in the TSMC's factories and use it as much as they wish, without waiting for competitors to release some spare machines?! :confused:

FoxEye · 4 Sep 2018 at 23:30

4K8KW10 said:
Can't AMD simply purchase the needed equipment, install it somewhere in the TSMC's factories and use it as much as they wish, without waiting for competitors to release some spare machines?!

Not with costs running into tens of $billions for a single fab. Crazy expensive.

Hence why every fab operator needs multiple customers just to make any ROI at all; why GloFo backed out of 7nm completely.

4K8KW10 · 5 Sep 2018 at 07:09

FoxEye said:
Not with costs running into tens of $billions for a single fab. Crazy expensive.

Hence why every fab operator needs multiple customers just to make any ROI at all; why GloFo backed out of 7nm completely.

GloFo didn't back out completely but put it on hold without stating when they will start using it. If they don't go to 7nm and lower, then their PC business will be dead soon.
Of course, they can manufacture some less important things on older nodes but effectively, they will be out of the high performance computing.

Rroff · 5 Sep 2018 at 07:14

4K8KW10 said:
Can't AMD simply purchase the needed equipment, install it somewhere in the TSMC's factories and use it as much as they wish, without waiting for competitors to release some spare machines?!

No a fab is built around the production equipment it isn't like you have a room with a bit of equipment in one corner, etc. AMD would have to put up the money for a complete end to end production installation.

For instance https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Q_n4vdyZzc

EDIT: Video has a few things wrong but it shows the infrastructure.

mid_gen · 5 Sep 2018 at 07:21

These sort of fabs are probably the most expensive manufacturing lines to setup, mega bucks.

In other news, had another one of those 'wut?' moments checking my portfolio this morning...AMD off like a rocket...again.

FoxEye · 5 Sep 2018 at 08:16

4K8KW10 said:
GloFo didn't back out completely but put it on hold without stating when they will start using it. If they don't go to 7nm and lower, then their PC business will be dead soon.
Of course, they can manufacture some less important things on older nodes but effectively, they will be out of the high performance computing.

100% of other fabs that did what GloFo have done never competed again at the leading edge.

GloFo also said that the leading edge represented something like <25% of their potential business (might have been less), so they felt confident they could drop it and concentrate on older processes.

D.P. · 5 Sep 2018 at 08:34

mid_gen said:
These sort of fabs are probably the most expensive manufacturing lines to setup, mega bucks.

In other news, had another one of those 'wut?' moments checking my portfolio this morning...AMD off like a rocket...again.

They also take years to build.

AMD basically did build their fab with the investments in Global Foundaries. This almost bankrupted them.

Satchfanuk · 5 Sep 2018 at 12:33

D.P. said:
They also take years to build.

AMD basically did build their fab with the investments in Global Foundaries. This almost bankrupted them.

I thought they were AMD's fabs and they spun them off, creating GloFo with heavy investment from Abu Dhabi who eventual took over completely in 2012 when AMD sold it's remaining stake.

Freddie1980 · 5 Sep 2018 at 13:04

D.P. said:
They also take years to build.

AMD basically did build their fab with the investments in Global Foundaries. This almost bankrupted them.

That's a bit misleading, AMD did pour lots of money in fabrication R&D in the late 90's and early 2000's which caused them to run at loss for a number of years at time when they have a good technological advantage over Intel in chip design but that was to close the gap Intel had on AMD in terms of process manufacturing. The last process AMD developed when that part of the business was fully owned by AMD was 45nm, when AMD sold that part of the business in 2009 a part of the deal was Global Foundries had to take on a large chunk of the structural debt that AMD had on it's books which was paid by investors from the UAE. It was this along with the settlement AMD got from Intel and the console business that stopped AMD from going under.

4K8KW10 · 21 Sep 2018 at 17:40

When will the next-gen AMD Navi graphics cards launch? We’re betting on an early 2019 release date for the new Radeon GPUs https://www-pcgamesn-com.cdn.amppro...esn.com/amd-navi-gpu-release-date-performance