How about comparing Honda's output compared to everyone's last year as thats the only true comparison to make
Put it another way - I doubt RBR had made 32 laps by this point last year and yet they won.....3 races over the next season (and performed well in a good number of others).
They had but don't let that stop you nor obviously read any of my posts and ignore most of the points, but whatever.
Firstly, Mclaren Honda tried to test on a media test day where they were allowed up to 100km(which would be about 22-23 laps at Jerez for comparison), they did poorly, then they had an official 2 day test, they did poorly, they then have this test, and they had two terrible days.
By day 5 they had completed something like 17 laps and had literally months between these tests to improve. Red Bull did 20 laps in the first test which was 4 days
BUT the bit you(and many others) ignore is that in that first test RBR did 20 laps but Renault engined cars did 150 laps.
My point as I've always been saying for the past 6 months is not that doing poorly early on is a terrible thing, I expected it, I was the one on here saying that is fine and who cares. It's the lack of other cars running that will hurt them especially badly.You can't compare RBR and Mclaren directly while ignoring the monumental difference in testing ability Renault had vs Honda, it's a completely different situation.
One of the reasons RBR did so well through the year was simple having aero in the same ballpark as Merc, no one else was remotely close in aero. Last year Ferrari, Mclaren, Sauber, FI, Marussia, Lotus and Caterham were all ****, that is the reason the Renault engine wasn't as big a handicap(against all but Merc) last year, not because RBR recovered. They had a significantly better overall car, worse engine but leagues ahead in aero, packaging, brakes(does no one remember how many times Riccy slowed far later yet maintained speed and stayed on track in corners, passing plenty of people, high downforce with reliable brakes better than most of the grid helped him throughout the season), than everyone but Merc. Another reason they did so well in recovery because there were 4 teams running that engine of which two provided a huge huge amount of test data... and Lotus taught every other Renault team what not to do... big bonus there as well
The very thing I've spent saying for 6 months is IF Mclaren/Honda have great testing OR terrible testing, it's the single car in testing that will kill them, they have no back up team testing, they have to find every single problem themselves and it will take longer to find and fix every problem.
EDIT:- lets also point out that is comparing against the worst engine last year, who Honda are trailing massively in laps to compared to same time last year. But lets just talk about the laps on day 2 of testing last year. Mclaren got 43, Ferrari 47, Williams 35, Merc 97, FI 37, Sauber 53, Caterham 11, RBR 8, TR didn't run.
So Merc got 212 laps on the second day, Ferrari notched up 100, Renault got 19 laps, just over triple Honda's output for the second day at Jerez(their 5th day of testing).
Third day last year Mclaren 92, Williams 47, Merc 62, FI 17, Ferrari 58, Sauber 34, Marussia 5, Caterham 10, TR 30, RBR 3. Honda/Mclaren are behind the three engines by a freaking enormous margin compared to the same day in testing last year, a monumentally large way behind. Mclaren as an individual car are less far behind, but not only against some teams. The problem is the teams that struggled had other teams helping make up the laps, that has been my point at every stage for the past 6 months.
Crap first test is pretty much inevitable, more teams, less risk, more teams, more running and a significantly higher chance of one team doing well, more teams, more bugs found, more fixes found. More teams, better development between tests, better idea of where to improve, what needs fixing, where the biggest problems are.
EDIT:- just one more thing, just to point it out, why compare Honda/Mclaren to last year, asides from the fact it highlights how much worse they are doing in comparison and ignores that they had a full season where the exact same team was using a competitors engine to learn every trick they could(something no one else has been able to do when making their own engines). They aren't racing last years cars this season, so it's irrelevant. How they do in this years championship is the only relevant thing. You could see them in Australia or Abu Dhabi, maybe they'll be 30 seconds behind the next slowest guy and a lap or two down on a Merc... are you going to say, but they were half a second faster than Merc finished this race last year?