Farage

nine_tails · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:28

Deals will be cut for sure , but its hard to say that UK has an upper hand than any one else in the open market.

Burnsy2023 · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:28

Zethor said:
China. India. Aus. I know we can do deals now too but after ART 50 we will do AMAZING deals. And we will make the EU pay for them.

What do China, India and Aus want from us?

China is looking to be rather protectionist and wants to stimulate it's own domestic production, so I don't think this is the panacea you suggest.

Monkeynut · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:29

Burnsy2023 said:
What do China, India and Aus want from us?

China is looking to be rather protectionist and wants to stimulate it's own domestic production, so I don't think this is the panacea you suggest.

I believe he was giving his best Donald Trump impression.

darreny · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:31

Zethor said:
China. India. Aus. I know we can do deals now too but after ART 50 we will do AMAZING deals. And we will make the EU pay for them.

Judging by all the made in China labels I see I think we already trade with them and we have primark as a retail outlet for india

Zethor · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:32

Burnsy2023 said:
What do China, India and Aus want from us?

China is looking to be rather protectionist and wants to stimulate it's own domestic production, so I don't think this is the panacea you suggest.

The deals just got 10% more expensive.

Gux · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:33

dalehitchy1 said:
Agreed. Id imagine a 13% hit spread across 27 counties wouldn't be as noticeable as the same percentage in one country I.e uk

+1 but brexit supporters like deuse don't understand that.

Even if trade completely stopped (which it won't), 13% between 27 members will easily be manageable between the EU. In case of the UK this would be an economic collapse of this country. This idea that we hold a bargaining chip over the EU is a total fantasy.

EU didn't compromise their position during the Cameron negotiations, even with a Brexit being the penalty.

Even now they refusing to even hold informal talks with the UK government. No talks until Article 50 is activated. Tells you everything you need to know about our bargaining chip....We don't have one and never did.

Only thing we can hope so, is that other EU members want to actively change some of the EU rules and conditions. If not, we are not going to get anything in our negotiations that the Brexit campaign was promising. Nothing at all

wildman · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:34

nine_tails said:
Curious as to how long do trade deals take to sign up. I know it is a big world out there etc etc..

30 secs, at least it did when I was playing Civ 5 last night, I don't see what the issue is here. We have 40 negotiators of which 2 are suitably qualified, I mean come on, what could possibly go wrong..............

darreny · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:35

Zethor said:
The deals just got 10% more expensive.

Haha

Burnsy2023 · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:35

Zethor said:
The deals just got 10% more expensive.

We should export ladders to Mexico.

nine_tails · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:37

wildman said:
30 secs, at least it did when I was playing Civ 5 last night, I don't see what the issue is here. We have 40 negotiators of which 2 are suitably qualified, I mean come on, what could possibly go wrong..............

Did you sign one with Gandhi ?

wildman · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:39

nine_tails said:
Did you sign one with Gandhi ?

nah hatshepsut , she had a cheeky little grin.........

Freakbro · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:42

deuse said:
Hear Hear

He wasn't agreeing with you

Avenged7Fold · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:43

Can someone find a list of the top exports to the EU?

You will find they simply aren't the sort of things alternative trading partners would want.

Cars and automotive stuff i know is on the top end of the list. There is far too much cheaper competition in the east to shift it and I cant imagine British cars and auto parts being all that popular over in the US.

I would quite happily liked to be proved wrong and that there is a demand for the things we export to the EU. We can hazard a guess at the potential business available if we knew what our top exports to the EU are.

darreny · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:43

We have a lot of dogs due to overbreeding so maybe go to the front of the que with China

Mods delete if that's inappropriate

Avenged7Fold · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:45

We also have a lot of knobs due to over breeding.

PlacidCasual · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:46

Gux said:
Even if trade completely stopped (which it won't), 13% between 27 members will easily be manageable between the EU. In case of the UK this would be an economic collapse of this country. This idea that we hold a bargaining chip over the EU is a total fantasy.

But it in all likelihood it's probably not 13% between all members, it will vary up and down between them. For example 20% of German exports might go to the UK yet only 5% of Spanish. I don't have those details to hand.

Also 13% of the production of 500m people is a lot of stuff and we might be major markets for some industries or companies and they will lobby to retain that. For example the 20% of all German car production that comes to the UK, you can be damn sure Mr Volkswagen will be in the ear of the EU negotiators about that.

Polish farmers for example won't want to be disadvantaged in a large market when the EU customs union prevents them find replacements outside the EU just at the time that large market is opened to new international suppliers. They won't want to lose UK business because they might lose it permanently with no prospect of replacing it until the EU signs another tardy trade deal.

I'm not suggesting we have the upper hand but 40 years of commercial integration means that punishing us won't be without pain. And when the UK's pain alleviates the EU's rules might maintain it for the EU.

I would expect both sides will want to be reasonable, in private if not public.

wildman · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:48

Freakbro said:
He wasn't agreeing with you

Correct I wasn't agreeing with him, just making sure that people understand basic mathematics which is something Deuse clearly does not. The impact of losing 48% exports from the UK will be far greater than 13% that is spread out across a larger trading bloc.

But I am sure we can get good trade deals on goats testicles and sheeps spleens to the voodoo market which will open up for us.

darreny · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:53

Don't forget it's about farage and he's traded all over the world, he's the only one had a proper job haha

Gux · 6 Jul 2016 at 15:57

PlacidCasual said:
But it in all likelihood it's probably not 13% between all members, it will vary up and down between them. For example 20% of German exports might go to the UK yet only 5% of Spanish. I don't have those details to hand.

Also 13% of the production of 500m people is a lot of stuff and we might be major markets for some industries or companies and they will lobby to retain that. For example the 20% of all German car production that comes to the UK, you can be damn sure Mr Volkswagen will be in the ear of the EU negotiators about that.

Polish farmers for example won't want to be disadvantaged in a large market when the EU customs union prevents them find replacements outside the EU just at the time that large market is opened to new international suppliers. They won't want to lose UK business because they might lose it permanently with no prospect of replacing it until the EU signs another tardy trade deal.

I'm not suggesting we have the upper hand but 40 years of commercial integration means that punishing us won't be without pain. And when the UK's pain alleviates the EU's rules might maintain it for the EU.

I would expect both sides will want to be reasonable, in private if not public.

Looking at how the French & Germans have come out to entice the UK financial industry, it is clear that they now see an opportunity to grab a large share of the pie. I would not be surprised at all if both Germany & France would work together to try and give us a bad deal, simply to try and get their hands on the financial industry.

If that is the case, don't think Volkswagen will have much sway.

Also looking how top Brexiters have now all started to jump ship, it is clear that we are in a weaker position when it comes to negotiations. People tend to jump ships when the ship is sinking, not when it is dominating the sea.

PlacidCasual · 6 Jul 2016 at 16:09

Gux said:
Looking at how the French & Germans have come out to entice the UK financial industry, it is clear that they now see an opportunity to grab a large share of the pie. I would not be surprised at all if both Germany & France would work together to try and give us a bad deal, simply to try and get their hands on the financial industry.

Unless the EU mandates Paris as the home of financial services I don't believe they stand any chance of luring financial services to Paris. The Income Tax and Corporation Tax rates are far too high. I don't know about Germany and Frankfurt but I might guess that they won't be as favourable as the UK.

If Osborne reduces corporation tax as suggested it would be a massive incentive for those industries to stay in the UK. Passporting rights are important but not essential, it becomes more costly without them but a 5+% drop in corporatin tax is a mighty thing. The UK is also in a position to play beggar thy neighbour tax games with the EU when we leave. VAT and Corporation Tax could be used as weapons and not by some tiddler no one cares about but by a major economy.