Poll: General election voting round 4

[delta0]

Sadly going first isn't an advantage when your only possible move is forfeit

It seems Conservatives will be getting around 283 (or up to 288) seats that gives them Lib which will be around 27. They will also get DUP at 8 seats. UKIP need only pledge support and not join a coalition with around 4-6 seats. UUP with 1 seat.

 

[eatcustard]

NF wants to cut the BBC fee right back to £48.50
Cant go wrong with that.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/572002/Nigel-Farage-cut-BBC-slash-licence-fee-third

 

[delta0]

UKIP are equally affected Labour? I thought they were affecting all parties, but it was more pronounced with the Tories...

They do in stronghold areas which is not really splitting the vote allowing Labour to gain a seat. In other areas they are appealing to working class, labour voters.

 

[ubersonic]

That isn't correct. Lib would follow conservative in this scenario.

Actually it is, Lib cannot follow Conservative as even combined they would not command a majority and would be shut down at every opportunity.

LabLib on the other hand would have essentially the same strength and so would not have a majority either but would not be shut down as either the SNP or Conservatives would vote the same as them on issues, effectively giving them a majority without needing extra coalition members.

UKIP will only get a few seats.

Yes that's what I said.

UKIP is equally effecting Labour seats, unfortunately for Labour they have been crippled in Scotland.

Not even close, the is a somewhat parallel between UKIP/Tory gains/loses, when UKIP rise or drop by a % then the Tories drop or rise by an almost equal %, Labour on the other hand are unaffected.

 

[ubersonic]

It seems Conservatives will be getting around 283 (or up to 288) seats that gives them Lib which will be around 27. They will also get DUP at 8 seats. UKIP need only pledge support and not join a coalition with around 4-6 seats. UUP with 1 seat.

The are two problem with that, firstly nobody is predicting UKIP will get that many seats, and secondly even if they did, all of that is still less seats than Lab/SNP are expected to get so it would be a minority government that would be blocked at every attempt.

 

[eatcustard]

Not even close, the is a somewhat parallel between UKIP/Tory gains/loses, when UKIP rise or drop by a % then the Tories drop or rise by an almost equal %, Labour on the other hand are unaffected.

Sorry but Labour is affected, but not as much as the Torys.

 

[delta0]

Actually it is, Lib cannot follow Conservative as even combined they would not command a majority and would be shut down at every opportunity.

LabLib on the other hand would have essentially the same strength and so would not have a majority either but would not be shut down as either the SNP or Conservatives would vote the same as them on issues, effectively giving them a majority without needing extra coalition members.




Yes that's what I said.




Not even close, the is a somewhat parallel between UKIP/Tory gains/loses, when UKIP rise or drop by a % then the Tories drop or rise by an almost equal %, Labour on the other hand are unaffected.

It wouldn't be "shut down" that is against the consitution. Never has there been a party to not follow the tradition of siding with the largest. There are more than just Lib Dems here. Labour would unfortunately not have a majority. Any involvement with SNP loses them Lib Dem. The only opportunity would be to have SNP support a minority with lib dem support or coalition. I can't see SNP doing that as they would have effectively failed in their attempt to get into Westminster. SNP is a big deal breaker for other parties. SNP also know that without power they will be steamrollered by Labour/Conservative policies which do align in many (most) places but not with SNP. Many are major SNP policies over defence, trident etc. SNP need coalition.

 

[scorza]

Which poll do we currently believe? I've heard so many and they all seem to show a different position.

The only poll that matters is the one on May 7th.

 

[delta0]

The are two problem with that, firstly nobody is predicting UKIP will get that many seats, and secondly even if they did, all of that is still less seats than Lab/SNP are expected to get so it would be a minority government that would be blocked at every attempt.

One less seat for UKIP means one more for Conservative.

 

[Schlong&Stable]

I could see a minority CON/LIB coalition with support from DUP giving them a working majority. But unless we see major gains for the Tories or Labour, we're going to see a far weaker government either way.

I think the impact of the anti-SNP rhetoric is exaggerated. The people who vote SNP are likely vote Yes to independence anyway. And it seems that the Yes vote would still be in a minority anyway. Those who don't vote for the SNP aren't going to care about the anti-SNP rhetoric will probably perceive it as no worse than the usual anti-Labour or anti-Tory rhetoric.

A Tory/Lib coalition with DUP/UKIP support is the most desirable outcome for me. And a right-leaning government would better represent the majority vote.

 

[ubersonic]

It wouldn't be "shut down" that is against the consitution.

No it isn't, it's called "democracy". If Labour/SNP outnumbered a Tory coalition (as seems almost certain at this point) then they could (and would) vote down everything the Tories put forward, they could also declare they have no confidence in the coalition and force an new election.

Never has there been a party to not follow the tradition of siding with the largest.

That's because never before has the result of siding with them still been a minority, we are in uncharted waters here.

There are more than just Lib Dems here.

Yes, however the only viable options are Labour+LibDem and Labour+Tory. Which do you think is more likely?

Labour would unfortunately not have a majority.

They would not need one as I have explained before, they could form a coalition with the LibDems and command a minority government which would work simply because the majority of the other parties would never vote against them.

Any involvement with SNP loses them Lib Dem.

They wouldn't need SNP involvement, just for the SNP to not vote against them, which they wouldn't as that would mean siding with the Tories.

If LabLib put something to vote it would either be opposed by the Tories and the SNP would back it, or (I.E Trident) the Tories would back it anyway making the SNP vote irellevant.

 

[delta0]

No it isn't, it's called "democracy". If Labour/SNP outnumbered a Tory coalition (as seems almost certain at this point) then they could (and would) vote down everything the Tories put forward, they could also declare they have no confidence in the coalition and force an new election.




That's because never before has the result of siding with them still been a minority, we are in uncharted waters here.





Yes, however the only viable options are Labour+LibDem and Labour+Tory. Which do you think is more likely?




They would not need one as I have explained before, they could form a coalition with the LibDems and command a minority government which would work simply because the majority of the other parties would never vote against them.




They wouldn't need SNP involvement, just for the SNP to not vote against them, which they wouldn't as that would mean siding with the Tories.

If LabLib put something to vote it would either be opposed by the Tories and the SNP would back it, or (I.E Trident) the Tories would back it anyway making the SNP vote irellevant.

Lab and SNP are far from enough to vote down anything. At the moment Conservatives will have enough to gain support for policies. Conservative can very easily operate as a minority or likely Lib coalition again and they will have support from DUP, UUP to back it up which is far in excess of any Lab/SNP numbers. It is new ground and I feel that polls often shows extremes that aren't necessarily played out on the day I.e. conservative and labour will likely get more seats than many of the predictions so far.

 

[peige]

• Con 34% +0
• Lab 33% -1
• UKIP 13% +0
• Lib Dem 9% +0
• Green 5% +0
• Other

Current poll of polls on BBC, no SNP though which is odd.. doesn't seem like they would be amongst the "others" I'm off to read more!

Another source http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2


If this played out then conservative get the first crack at forming a government and go with ukip or lib/dem. I wouldn't mind ether if i'm honest but ukip coalition would be interesting.

 

[delta0]

Lib Dem are the kingmaker. The first thing that will happen after the result (or it may/probably has happened) is Clegg will say to Cameron will you approve x, y, z policies and not approve a, b, c? If they come to agreement then it will all go ahead. If not then lib will turn to labour.

 

[ubersonic]

Lab and SNP are far from enough to vote down anything.

Here are the current predictions:

Labour + SNP would be enough to vote down the Tories + Libs + UKIP + some of the independents (many of who wouldn't back the Tories).

Another ConDem coalition is simply not viable in the next government unless something changes before the election.

 

[elmarko]

They do in stronghold areas which is not really splitting the vote allowing Labour to gain a seat. In other areas they are appealing to working class, labour voters.

Between 5-7% of Labour voters in the 2010 election are now voting UKIP, compared to 14-18% of Conservative voters in the 2010 election - they are not even remotely closely impacted by UKIP.

Of Liberal Democrat voters - 32% are now voting Labour compared to 15% Conservative.

If it wasn't for SNP making huge gains we would be looking at a clear Labour majority this election due to the collapse of the Liberal Democrats & rise of UKIP. The increase in popularity of the Green party has also minor negatively impacted the Labour vote (but not likely enough to change any results in seats)

http://may2015.com/category/drilldown/

Finally, looking at the recent polls 6% of 2010 Conservative voters have switched to Labour compared to 3% of Labour voters the other way around - these are likely to be in swing seats which will have an additional impact.

 

[delta0]

Between 5-7% of Labour voters in the 2010 election are now voting UKIP, compared to 14-18% of Conservative voters in the 2010 election - they are not even remotely closely impacted by UKIP.

Of Liberal Democrat voters - 32% are now voting Labour compared to 15% Conservative.

If it wasn't for SNP making huge gains we would be looking at a clear Labour majority this election due to the collapse of the Liberal Democrats & rise of UKIP. The increase in popularity of the Green party has also minor negatively impacted the Labour vote (but not likely enough to change any results in seats)

http://may2015.com/category/drilldown/

Finally, looking at the recent polls 6% of 2010 Conservative voters have switched to Labour compared to 3% of Labour voters the other way around - these are likely to be in swing seats which will have an additional impact.

Conservative are only effected in a few seats that they would not benefit labour. The others are already labour seats or insignificant enough to cause a headache for conservatives like SNP have done to Labour.

 

[elmarko]

Conservative are only effected in a few seats that they would not benefit labour. The others are already labour seats or insignificant enough to cause a headache for conservatives like SNP have done to Labour.

I'm not sure what you are trying to say.

The Conservatives are going to take huge losses due to a combination of UKIP & the Liberal democrat vote haemorrhage. SNP are the only reason that the Labour party are not looking at a reliable majority.

Are you saying that in swing seats nobody is going to vote for UKIP?, or that the UKIP vote share is evenly distributed (when the data says otherwise?).

 

[ubersonic]

If it wasn't for SNP making huge gains we would be looking at a clear Labour majority this election due to the collapse of the Liberal Democrats & rise of UKIP.

Kinda crazy really, Cameron has one of the best records of any leader in the continent, the IMF and other countries chancellors say he's done a good job, our economy and prospects are looking fantastic (compared to 2010) and yet he's struggling in an election he should be cakewalking, against the worst leader Labour's had since Germany had two capitals.

Is Cameron really that annoying? lol.

 

[delta0]

Here are the current predictions:

Labour + SNP would be enough to vote down the Tories + Libs + UKIP + some of the independents (many of who wouldn't back the Tories).

Another ConDem coalition is simply not viable in the next government unless something changes before the election.

It will bias way more to top figures for both lab and con on the actual day. There is only 1 independent by the way. The others are parties.