If CO2 emissions are broadly irrelevant, why worry about them? The difference between "irrelevant" and "broadly irrelevant" is minimal - neither are of any importance.
And my answers are "no" and "that question is irrelevant because it's a rephrasing of the first question and only makes sense if the answer to the first question is yes".
The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is far from irrelevant. It makes no difference how many people are involved. 8T and 4 people has the same effect as 8T and 1 person. It's the amount that matters.
CO2 emissions for a country as a whole are broadly irrelevant. The most important factor is CO2 emissions per person. We need to reduce our emissions PER PERSON down, rather than scapegoat the largest countries because they have the largest emissions. That doesn't mean we should completely ignore each countries emissions however, just that it's far less important that the emissions PER PERSON.
The whole point of the question is that it's basically rewording the original question, so not irrelevant at all. And if you answer no, then why are you concerned about Chinas overall emissions? China would have to reduce it's per person emissions to below 4t CO2 per person, (so significantly lower than the UK) to go back to emitting less than the US.
While I'm not saying your aim is this, most people I've come across that talk about China in this way are using it as a scapegoat for their own countries per person emissions. I.e. they don't want to actually do anything themselves, they want others to do it all.
The average European/North American has far more impact on the environment than the average Chinese person.
But they might not die as quickly, which might give you more time to treat the other problems. Or it might be that the fever reduces the effectiveness of the treatment that would otherwise cure them. And I'm stretching the analogy a bit far now, so I'll be more direct - solving any evironmental issues is of at least some use in solving the whole problem.
Agreed. But irrelevant. You seem to still be under the impression that I'm advocating a more sustainable human population instead of pushing to reduce emissions. Wrong. It's not an either or. My argument is that reducing emissions is not going to solve the issue entirely. We need a multi pronged attack.
You are the only person who has mentioned genocide. It's entirely a strawman of your own devising. I have not said you have advocated genocide. Nobody else in this thread has said you have advocated genocide. You are the only person who has talked about advocating genocide. You have not advocated genocide. I have not advocated setting the moon on fire to reduce energy usage by reducing the amount of energy needed for street lighting at night. Greenpeace has not advocated building thousands of huge power stations based on creating energy from millions of people flapping their arms for hours every day. Donald Trump has not advocated solving climate change by attaching ropes to the Earth and using rockets to pull it further away from the Sun. Although he might - you never know what nonsense will pass through his brain and immediately onto Twitter.
So you're going down the semantics argument. You're the one that brought up mass killing. I used genocide as a catch all term for that... If you want to go down that route I'm out. This is not about and has never been about mass killing, genocide or any other way of removing billions of humans from the earth. YOU are the only one that brought that up and arguing semantics is not going to change that.
The stated timeframe is from months to maybe as much as 15 years. It's an immediate crisis, as I'm sure you've read. And not from climate change deniers. Very much the opposite.
Yes. Yet the vast majority of scientists and advocates are not talking about removing fossil fuels overnight. The argument is about becoming carbon NEUTRAL, not carbon free in a few years.
As I said, you brought up mass killing, which is the argument against overpopulation equivalent to those claiming reducing carbon emissions to zero overnight.
The only way to reduce population enough in that timeframe is killing billions of people. We can't support 8+ billion with archaic farming methods, let alone that and extremely limited bulk transportation and a general antipathy towards technology (which is the inevitable result of technology being seen as the cause of the problems, as you stated it is). So either it's an immediate crisis, in which case the required enormous amount of population reduction would require killing billions of people or the population can decrease as a result of increased living standards, which would take generations and would massively increase the population first...in which case there can't be any sort of crisis requiring population reduction now.
Also, contraception is technology. Would the population reduce much in a situation in which contraception was seen as being part of what caused the problems?
You're still arguing your straw men that I've already pointed out are wrong so no point repeating what I've already said here, other than to point out (AGAIN) that it's in tandem with emissions reductions and a push towards all the other things we are trying to push for as environmentalists. The issue is that is just not going to be enough, not that we shouldn't try and reduce our individual environmental footprints.
As I said in an earlier post, go and read websites from NGO's like Population Matters and see what they are advocating and what they are actually doing. Hopefully it'll make the argument clearer and explain why you're going down the wrong path with your current line of thinking.
The main page quote by Attenborough is a good start:
"All our environmental problems become easier to solve with fewer people, and harder - and ultimately impossible - to solve with ever more people."
And here is a page on the sort of things we can do to help to create a more sustainable population.
https://populationmatters.org/solutions
Reducing population by increasing standard of living also creates another effect - it increases the average age of the population, dramatically so for quite a long time. That causes problems. A standard of living that's merely normal in wealthier countries with current technology today results in an average lifespan in the mid 70s and a cleaner environment plus even slightly better technology should increase that to at least 80, probably more. It's already reached 84 in Japan, for example. 80 is a very conservative estimate. 90 is a possibility. There is an initial large increase in population, partly because healthier people are on average more fertile, partly because increased standard of living dramatically reduces the proportion of people who die young and partly because the custom of having more children will remain for some period of time. Add in the fact that the first generation after the change will be living to ~80 (or more) on average and there's no way the population will reduce below pre-change levels quickly. It also creates huge problems with the increasing average age of the population. Japan has already passed 25% of its population being past retirement age and the proportion is increasing.
That problem does eventually go away when enough people die, but it has to be addressed. What is the solution? Nobody seems to have one (Japan's attempted solution is to try to *increase* the population).
And there in lies the problem, standard of living is going to increase anyway (at least, until we irreparably damage the environment). Either we artificially hold back those areas of the world that aren't up to developed countries standards of living or we have to deal with the fact that there are 5 billion people that will be demanding their "fair share" of the resources that are disproportionately being used by those living in developed countries.
Your example of Japan is a good one. It's a prime example of a country that are just trying to ignore the problem. Most other countries are doing the same, but using a different method (immigration). All that's doing is pushing the problem on to the next generation.
But radical socioeconomic changes will be required anyway, both to solve the problems and to solve the results of the solutions to the problems. Our current socioeconomic system isn't able to work with a greatly reduced population, less paid work and less environmental impact. People will need a new one that's fit for purpose in those conditions and they'll need one soon. But what will it be?
I agree. And that's also what we need to be focusing on. Organizations are already coming up with new methods of measuring progress and people are working on all those problems. As above, just ignoring them and assuming we can inflate these problems away (by increasing the number of each generation) is not in any way a sensible answer, yet it seems to be what most believe is the solution.
This is also the point I was trying to make about technology. The solution to the problem generally ends up causing unintended consequences which we then have to try and solve... with more tech, which also creates more unintended consequences etc etc. Technology is not the panacea some people believe it is. It helps, but we can't "technology" our way out of all the problems we currently have, especially the environmental ones.
I think you have the cart before the horse. Population reduction can't be the solution to the existing problems unless it's implemented quickly by killing billions of people in a very short period of time. Population reduction by improved standards of living would be the *result* of solving the existing problems, not the solution to them.
And again. Your strawman. The aim is to have a more sustainable human pupulation as well as reducing our individual impact on the environment. It's not an either or, they are in tandem. As you rightly point out, the timescale is too long for just a reduced human population to solve everything. Equally, reducing our individual impact means we can have a higher sustainable population. The reality is it's still likely to be no where near the 7.5-9 Billion number we are currently looking at.
I disagree with your disagreement. A larger area requires more transportation, which increases environmental impact. Lower population density would make that worse, not better, unless you're envisaging a lot of wholly independent city-states with a lot of uninhabitated land between them.
I think you're misunderstanding me there. What you wrote is my point. People that live in dense urban areas use less CO2 and generally less resources per person than people that live in remote rural areas.
A large country with a more urban population is going to use less resources per person than a small country with a very sparse population. In a global, industrial world the overall population and overall environmental impact is more a factor than that of individual countries. To paraphrase a quote "CO2 does not respect international borders".
Only if assuming the continuation of current levels of technology and current socioeconomic systems. Better technology could improve standard of living without increasing enviromnental impact or decrease environmental impact as well or improve standard of living by decreasing environmental impact. We've already seen many examples, most notably with air pollution in urban areas.
The current economic system requires a rapid churn of stuff and an excess of stuff, so much of what is produced quickly becomes waste and in many cases is designed and manufactured with that in mind. Ending that would dramatically reduce environmental impact without reducing SOL. Random example - I have a very well made woollen jumper that I've had for over 20 years. I wear it often and wash it often. It is exactly as functional as it was >20 years ago, i.e. my standard of living in that respect has not reduced at all. The environmental impact is vastly lower than it would have been with dozens of jumpers, replaced either because they were lower quality and became insufficiently functional or because fashion required many changes. But our current socioeconomic system can't support a change like that.
So I think it comes back to a significantly different socioeconomic system being required.
This is the tech as a panacea argument summed up. The problem is can you provide any example of this from the past?
Conversely this thinking is what got us into this mess in the first place. The industrial revolution is a prime example of this, and even further back there are arguments that civilizations across the world believed their technology was the solution, until it all came crashing down.
I agree with your argument regarding sustainability, however where we disagree is whether technology alone will be the solution. Historically while it usually solves the problem it's meant to deal with, it often caused additional problems (e.g. the harnessing of fossil fuels has been one of the greatest tech breakthroughs in history, but it's also caused one of the biggest problems in history). As you say, a different socioeconomic system is needed no matter what solution we advocate.