Maybe I'm missing something but if your heatloss is pretty much 7kw at -3, and you fit a 7kw heater, when you then have weather below -3 your house is slowly going to cool down? Would you not be better with something with a bit more margin for error.
You raise a very valid point, but the 7kW aroTherm can generate 7.5kW of heat with flow temperature of 50c at outside temperature of -5c, rising to 9kW at +2c. At a lower flow it can generate even more heat, at 35c flow it generates 8.2 kW of heat at -5c, so it can actually generate more heat than the rating suggests.
Then you've got all of what
@b0rn2sk8 said, its very rare it gets below freezing down here (south east England), lowest temperature we've recorded this winter is 0c. I've been following a guy in Scotland, his heat loss was just below 8kW, and that was taking into account yet to be fitted triple glazing. He had a 7kW aroTherm installed, and even with temperatures as low as -10c has not had a problem, and he's still got the old double glazing, and he has a lot of it.
Add to that I have a 5kW wood burning stove, and a big stack of dried wood for emergencies.
That sounds crazy expensive to me. I'm looking at £600 all in from Octopus.
What you have to remember or realise, is that Octopus are installing these pretty much at cost or a loss, they have massive buying power, but I doubt very much they are making a profit on them. The quality of install will not be be so good, and I don't think they will do what I want.
The guy I mention in Scotland paid £12.5k after grant, if you knock off the cost of his extra radiators then it comes to £6.3k after the grant, that does include Open Energy Monitoring as well.
The Heatgeek I contacted hasn't come back to me, and is not replying to WhatsApp or answering the phone, so he's out of the running. I've got another couple of local installers to try, and I may give Octopus a go and see what they come up with, but I really want a Vaillant system, or Daiken as second option, and I want a compact install, and its this point I don't think Octopus will manage that, they are not very flexible.