How long until Ireland is united?

[Surveyor]

I can ring my GP and see him the same day.

You're a lucky [tea]boy.

 

[GreatAuk]

It astonishes me the ignorance of NI politics when the troubles were in full force it was in the news all the time so you picked up a lot of what was going on there is a "peace wall" that separates the two communities in Belfast like the wall that separate the Israeli and Arab parts of the West Bank and they're just about as divided the riots that kicked off a few months ago due to the deal with the EU was just a taster of what could happen just as the nationalist "real IRA" were happy to start shooting bullets a couple years back when that journalist was killed by gunfire due to lack of progress in talks in Stormont peace is fragile there, people are delusional if they think all differences are suddenly going to dissolve in some happy clappy future of a unified Ireland.

I agree, but I guess news about tension in Northern Ireland just isn't as appealing as more sexy topics from America etc. and it's not a priority for our government so naturally perceptions in the rest of the UK maybe don't match reality.

This is probably quite an interesting news item in that context showing that despite a (small) majority expecting Ireland to leave the UK within 25 years, a much larger majority think there is potential for violence:

Of those surveyed in Northern Ireland, 76% agreed with the proposition that "the dispute over Northern Ireland's status remains unresolved and there is still a potential for violence in the future".

In the Republic, an even higher proportion, 87%, echoed that view.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-56777985

 

[Geodude97AD]

I see that the leader of the DUP has resigned amidst infighting within the party days after Arlene Foster stood down as First Minister of the consistently dysfunctional Northern Ireland Assembly.

The EU, the GB and the US are in danger of falling out over the relationship between Northern Ireland, the EU and GB.

How long can it be before reality results in the unification of the island of Ireland?

The only thing that will result in a United Ireland is if the people of Northern Ireland vote it. The EU,GB,US and RoI have little say in it other than to agree. Personally I think a United Ireland will not happen as people don't want it outside of hard line Irish Nationalism, a more likely outcome would be an Independent Northern Ireland with major border adjustments should the UK come apart, likely if Scotland broke away. All that is playing out now is the effect of a useless Prime Minister who has left a mess every where he has ever been. The question right now is not about a United Ireland but rather will politics shift away from both the DUP and Sinn Fein(all is not well in that camp).

 

[englishpremier]

The only thing that will result in a United Ireland is if the people of Northern Ireland vote it. The EU,GB,US and RoI have little say in it other than to agree. Personally I think a United Ireland will not happen as people don't want it outside of hard line Irish Nationalism, a more likely outcome would be an Independent Northern Ireland with major border adjustments should the UK come apart, likely if Scotland broke away. All that is playing out now is the effect of a useless Prime Minister who has left a mess every where he has ever been. The question right now is not about a United Ireland but rather will politics shift away from both the DUP and Sinn Fein(all is not well in that camp).

An independent NI would be pretty poor. It's bad enough as it now but without the UK subsidy. The countries GDP is only £46bn and the UK subsidy to it is near £10bn, I know it's not as simple as that, but it really does rely on the UK financially.

 

[VincentHanna]

There was a Unionist lady on sky news saying it's time they used "mayhem and death" like the "other lot"

She looked like a harmless looking mom/grandmother.

And the issue (according to them) is the Northern Ireland Protocol, aka Boris oven ready deal

 

[Geodude97AD]

An independent NI would be pretty poor. It's bad enough as it now but without the UK subsidy. The countries GDP is only £46bn and the UK subsidy to it is near £10bn, I know it's not as simple as that, but it really does rely on the UK financially.

Westminster sets the stage for public spending right across the UK, N Ireland's block grant is based on them UK wide policies. An independent Northern Ireland would no long be restrained by NHS, Benefit and Tax leading to major changes on all levels some for the better some not. **** poor at first no doubt but that would change with time.

 

[Dem2k]

The answer to me is not within our lifetimes.

 

[Colonel_Klinck]

I think it should become its own country. Cut loose from the UK and Ireland. The religious and political extremists have far too much power there. They have nothing in common with your average UK citizen outside NI other than language. I have friends living there and parts of it are beautiful but I can't see the politics or religious extremism changing anytime soon.

 

[Geodude97AD]

I think it should become its own country. Cut loose from the UK and Ireland. The religious and political extremists have far too much power there. They have nothing in common with your average UK citizen outside NI other than language. I have friends living there and parts of it are beautiful but I can't see the politics or religious extremism changing anytime soon.

Religious extremism doesn't exist in Northern Ireland, your playing into an old cleché based on the media's lazy explanation from the 1970's, the late Ian Paisley and the old board men preachers of doom in Belfast city centre, just your normal religious people to be found all over the UK and the RoI. The overly religious are long laughed out of town on both sides of the wall.

 

[alchal]

Ignore an entire proportion of the population to fulfill some strange idea of unification, the hard left have some peculiar ideas. Like Jeremy Corbyn's support for the IRA I sometimes wonder if they live in an alternate reality.


When did that matter? They'll just claim massive grants from teh EU when they rejoin like the SNP. Never mind that though its time for us here to assert our right to freedom for Sussex! Liberation for the South Saxons!

That's assuming they will be able to rejoin the EU

 

[Btone]

I can't help but think that the different parties are their own worst enemies

the DuP keep fighting to deny the same rights to the people of N.I. that they would enjoy in any other part of the UK. which does nothing but weaken the union

and SF keep trying to force their "brand" of Irishest on N.I. causing unionist to push back and try to stop it. if they (SF) would just shut up and let the people discover what type of Irishest they want it would be a lot better

 

[Geodude97AD]

The DUP keep fighting to deny the same rights to the people of N.I. that they would enjoy in any other part of the UK.

On the issue of rights, that would be abortion which is an issue with many cross both communities. The DUP voted against it, Sinn Fein abstained as it didn't sit well with their electorate, the SDLP, UUP and Alliance as parties avoiding the issue and left it up to their own member's conscience. The Irish language act is not even an act, but rather changes an agreed existing Northern Ireland Act, 1998 and Office of Identity and Cultural Expression. The problem really is that Westminster has enforced a border down the Irish sea which is in itself tell people in Northern Ireland that they are not full members of the UK but rather second class citizens in their own nation. Our local government is a failure due to Sinn Fein by passing local government and running to Dublin, Brussels and Westminster with threats of what the PIRA will do if X,Y or Z is not meet. If anyone is fight against civil rights its Sinn Fein bypassing the democratic process with it's threats to use it's private army.

Abortion, by all means but it not something I would choose to do.
Irish Language, no problem with it so long as it is not be used as a barrier to employment or education or cultural expression.
Protocol has bypass all democratic processes, as such must go.
LGBT, whatever floats your boat even if it makes the DUP unhappy.

 

[StriderX]

Haven't the DUP essentially done the same exact thing with the loyalist paras that you're criticising Sinn Fein for?

It would be a lot less stale if NI just voted Alliance and stopped giving either side a stick to dangle.

 

[Colonel_Klinck]

Religious extremism doesn't exist in Northern Ireland, your playing into an old cleché based on the media's lazy explanation from the 1970's, the late Ian Paisley and the old board men preachers of doom in Belfast city centre, just your normal religious people to be found all over the UK and the RoI. The overly religious are long laughed out of town on both sides of the wall.

Really? So the DUP haven't spent years fighting to stop women being able to get an abortion? They still wouldn't be able to if Westminster hadn't stepped in. Even Ireland legalised abortion in 2018.

 

[Tefal]

The answer to me is not within our lifetimes.

Ironically that may be the answer.

Wait for them all to die of old age and by then few will care.


This is the remnants of the last century still festering.

 

[dave28]

United ? no chance untill a very different generation comes along with different view and attitude

 

[Caracus2k]

The 'peace' in Northern Ireland is currently supported by an awful lot of money being transferred from Great Britain to NI.

I don't think it would be politically tenable for the Republic of Ireland to replicate such a subsidy.

Therefore beyond it being a romantic sentiment for some to see a United Ireland in their lifetime I don't think it will happen any time soon without an awful lot more violence being the outcome.

 

[The Running Man]

I think it should become its own country. Cut loose from the UK and Ireland. The religious and political extremists have far too much power there. They have nothing in common with your average UK citizen outside NI other than language. I have friends living there and parts of it are beautiful but I can't see the politics or religious extremism changing anytime soon.

I take it you have never been to Bradford?

 

[EdwardTeach]

I think it will happen within 30yrs.

Demographically NI is gradually shifting catholic.

I expect the wealth divide between NI and Ireland to become increasingly obvious, and people will vote with their wallets.

Ireland is a much less scary place for the ulster Scots than it was 10 or twenty years ago. There was a great fear of living in a very Catholic county, but Ireland has changed so much that the influence of Catholicism has dropped off a cliff.

I think it will be a bit like rest and west Germany. They were even more ideologically opposed, but settled into a unified county really swiftly.

 

[OspreyO]

I think it will happen within 30yrs.
Demographically NI is gradually shifting catholic.
I expect the wealth divide between NI and Ireland to become increasingly obvious, and people will vote with their wallets.
Ireland is a much less scary place for the ulster Scots than it was 10 or twenty years ago. There was a great fear of living in a very Catholic county, but Ireland has changed so much that the influence of Catholicism has dropped off a cliff.
I think it will be a bit like rest and west Germany. They were even more ideologically opposed, but settled into a unified county really swiftly.

The vast majority of people in the ROI don't give a monkeys about any religion. Haven't done for decades.

1979, 2.7 million turned up for Pope John Paul II
2018, 130k turned up for Pope Francis

The fear is of loss of status, power and wealth. Not religion.