How soon the bloom comes off the rose. I'm guessing Murdoch has failed to make as much money from F1 as he anticipated. Anyone want to start an over-under on how soon either F1HD is binned or all races end up back on the BBC?
Are you going to fund that, then?
Sky and the BBC have a contract to 2018. For BBC to drop their part of the deal, or Sky to drop theirs will mean either someone buying out the contract, or them faulting on it and Bernie suing them to hell and back.
Sky will outbid everyone. No terrestrial channel has a chance of buying out Sky's contract, they simply can't afford it. However the reverse is entirely possible, Sky could buy out the BBCs part of the contract quite easily.
So for all the races to end up back on the BBC live the BBC need to somehow find the money to buy out Skys current contract, a contract worth a lot more than the one the BBC had between 2009 and 2011. Considering the whole reason Sky have F1 is because the BBC couldn't afford to keep it, this seems highly unlikely.
The way I see it going is either Sky buying BBC's Live rights which will then allow them to put adverts in the race, leaving the BBC with just highlights, or Formula 1 just being absorbed into the current 4 Sky Sports channels which will force those viewers like me who have HD but not Sports to get the Sports pack.
Now that Sky have their claws in F1, I do not see any possible way that it will ever end up back on terrestrial TV. F1 on TV is all about money, and F1 on Sky will always be worth more money to FOM than F1 on any terrestrial channel. Viewing figures are irrelevant.
Edit: Top Gear Maths:
BBC were paying 'around £20m' (cant find an exact figure) annually for exclusive live coverage between 2009 and 2013.
The new deal with Sky meant the above was scrapped and replaced with a deal from 2012 to 2018 where BBC pay £7m and Sky pay £25m annually.
For all races to end up back on the BBC they would need to buy out Sky's contract for at least £25m x years left, so for 2014 onwards thats £125m. The BBC do not have this money.
For Sky to get exclusivity they would need to buy out the BBCs contract so would need to find £7m x years left, so for 2014 onwards thats £35m. Sky can easily find £35m.
For anyone else to take the rights from both BBC and Sky and show it exclusively, they would need to find (£25 + £7m) x years left, so for 2014 onwards that is £160m. No terrestrial channel has this.
Sky are in the driving seat on this.