Stock was over $60 when Pat took the helm, it's now ~ $20. Seems to me me many investers understand the situation quite well
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Intel has a Pretty Big Problem..
- Thread starter Purgatory
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I'm not saying looking at the bigger picture is going to magically change it in favour of Intel - amongst other things consumers have 13th/14th gen exhaustion and AL is not an attractive proposition, but having been watching a lot of retail data over the last year or so I find you do need to look at a mix of sources to get a good picture.
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Soldato
It's a large boat, not an F1 car. Not as if Gelsinger could come in and immediately magic up some good products.Stock was over $60 when Pat took the helm, it's now ~ $20. Seems to me me many investers understand the situation quite well
Stock was over $60 when Pat took the helm, it's now ~ $20. Seems to me me many investers understand the situation quite well
So are you saying with another CEO the stock would be higher? Are you aware of the issues that made Intel lost its value? In what world is, for example, Shappire Rappids or the 10nm issues Pats fault?
I wonder if some people live in reality.
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If 18A is a success the same people will attribute the merit to the incoming CEO no doubt. These plans takes years, the future CEO won’t see the result of his/her strategy until 28 at the earliest.
Intel since at least 2012 become complicit in its own demise. The weakness in Intels parts was obvious, but as with any company that operates a market monopoly greed become ingrained and failure tolerated. Pat worked hard turning most of Intels issues around but the job is nowhere near done.
The real danger for Intel starts now.
The real danger for Intel starts now.
Soldato
I think this is the reason Intel board of directors fired CEO Pat Gelsinger.
Intel has a pretty massive problem now.
wccftech.com
Intel 18A yield is only just less than 10% make mass production utter impossible.
Wow Intel probably will have another massive loss in disastrous Q4 2024. All 18A clients probably will cancel all projects with Intel.
All Intel CPUs and GPUs will be fabbed at TSMC.
I guess Intel boards of directors and next CEO will plan to sell off Intel Foundry.
Intel has a pretty massive problem now.
Intel Foundry Fails To Impress Once Again, 18A Process "Yield Rates' Are Reported To Be Only 10% Making Mass-Production Impossible
Intel's 18A process, a node that is said to be a "turning point" for Intel Foundry, is now being said to feature only 10% yield rates.
wccftech.com
Intel 18A yield is only just less than 10% make mass production utter impossible.
Wow Intel probably will have another massive loss in disastrous Q4 2024. All 18A clients probably will cancel all projects with Intel.
All Intel CPUs and GPUs will be fabbed at TSMC.
I guess Intel boards of directors and next CEO will plan to sell off Intel Foundry.
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Soldato
I think this is the reason Intel board of directors fired CEO Pat Gelsinger.
Intel has a pretty massive problem now.
Intel Foundry Fails To Impress Once Again, 18A Process "Yield Rates' Are Reported To Be Only 10% Making Mass-Production Impossible
Intel's 18A process, a node that is said to be a "turning point" for Intel Foundry, is now being said to feature only 10% yield rates.
Intel 18A yield is only just 10% make mass production utter impossible.
Wow Intel probably will have another massive loss in Q4 2024.
All Intel CPUs and GPUs will be fabbed at TSMC.
I guess the buck stopped with Pat, although it seems a bit unfair. The plan was good, the workforce just seem to be a bit lacking.
But this really could spell the end for intel. Not that it will die, but it could end up being broken up.
I was going to say that they need to concentrate on what they are good at, but that seems to be "nothing".
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Yeah, goto feel sorry for Pat
from Tom's Hardware
"Right now, the board have 13 directors led by Frank D. Yeary, who spent 25 years in the finance industry and is currently managing member at Darwin Capital Advisors LLC, a private investment firm. Including Yeary, there are five members of the board with financial, venture capitalist, and ecommerce backgrounds. Two directors come from the healthcare industry, two come from academia with a focus on electrical engineering and semiconductors, one comes from the PC industry, and three now have a background in the semiconductor industry".
What a bunch of nonsense. To have a 10% yield with a process node that currently has a defect rate of 0.4, your die area should be at least 720-730mm2. Even with a mature process with a DD of 0.1 your yield would be under 50%. It’s not an issue with the process if you need a big ass die to compensate for your mediocrity.I think this is the reason Intel board of directors fired CEO Pat Gelsinger.
Intel has a pretty massive problem now.
Intel Foundry Fails To Impress Once Again, 18A Process "Yield Rates' Are Reported To Be Only 10% Making Mass-Production Impossible
Intel's 18A process, a node that is said to be a "turning point" for Intel Foundry, is now being said to feature only 10% yield rates.
Intel 18A yield is only just less than 10% make mass production utter impossible.
Wow Intel probably will have another massive loss in disastrous Q4 2024. All 18A clients probably will cancel all projects with Intel.
All Intel CPUs and GPUs will be fabbed at TSMC.
I guess Intel boards of directors and next CEO will plan to sell off Intel Foundry.
It’s complete nonsense. Shareholders want short term money at any cost.
the real reason vauxhall is closing luton to sell of the land
Soldato
That not accurate. Back in 2017 when Nvidia launched Titan V based on Volta architecture, it had largest die size 815mm2 based on TSMC 12nm process, CEO Jensen Huang talked about GV100 very low yield around 10%, he said only 1 chip out of every TSMC 12nm wafer worked. Then Nvidia launched RTX 20 series in September 2018, all Turing chips was based on same TSMC 12nm process as Volta, accorded to google TSMC 12nm yield achieved as high as 85% so that mean smallest dies around 100mm2 achieved up to 85% yield.
Last year in September 2023 Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger showcased Intel 20A wafer contained Arrow Lake compute tiles test dies then Intel announced at CES 2024 Arrow Lake was on tracked for launch in seond half of 2024, everybody and Intel shareholders thought Arrow Lake on Intel 20A risk production went well with good yield. But on 3 September 2024 Intel announced Lunar Lake confirmed 140mm2 compute tiles are manufactured by TSMC on N3B process instead of Intel 18A process then next day on 4 September 2024, me, everybody and Intel shareholders was stunned on news of Intel announced 20A process cancelled. Then Intel annouced Arrow Lake CPUs on 10 October 2024 confirmed 114.5mm2 compute tiles dies are manufactured by TSMC on N3B process instead of Intel 20A process.
So... what happened to Intel 20A and 18A? Yeah obviously they suffered very poor yields so it seemed Intel still struggled unable to improved yield to get it up to about 30% minimum for acceptance risk production and 50% minimum for mass production on both processes. I think Arrow Lake never went on risk production and Intel was panicked redesigned Arrow Lake compute tile on TSMC N3B process around January 2024 and tapeout test chips around June 2024. Intel was been struggled with yield issues for 10 years now since 5th gen Broadwell on 14nm most of desktop CPUs in 2014, Cannon Lake first desktop CPUs on 10nm process in 2015, Ice Lake desktop CPUs on 10nm process for 2016 and retail Tiger Lake desktop CPUs on 10nm process for 2017 all cancelled and replaced it with Intel 14nm project Skylake as backup plan B started with 6th gen Skylake CPUs on 14nm launched in 2015.
Samsung also have issue with very poor yields on HBM3e, possible NANDs and RAMs chips too and second gen 3nm process yield is less than 20% compared to 75% on first gen 3nm process, they are struggled to compete with TSMC and SK Hynix. Both TSMC and SK Hynix had no issues with yields.
We will have to see in 2025 if Intel manage to improve 18A yield for Panther Lake CPU compute tile or spent billions of dollars redesign it again for TSMC N3B or N2.
In what world Lunar Lake was going to be on 18A? 18A was never going to be used for any current processors. You should really check your facts.
In addition, 20A was never going to be a high volume node, it was a de-risk node to prepare 18A. It was never going to be able to meet ARL demand.
In addition, 20A was never going to be a high volume node, it was a de-risk node to prepare 18A. It was never going to be able to meet ARL demand.
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Quick google search:
"Perhaps the most interesting thing about the demo was what wasn’t said, however: the process node used for Lunar Lake’s compute (CPU) tile. In Intel’s earliest (and still most recent) public roadmap, Lunar Lake was listed to be built on the Intel 18A process. However, other disclosures from Intel today indicate that they’re only going to be starting risk production of 18A silicon in Q1’2024. Which means that for Lunar Lake to be working today, it can’t be on 18A."
Intel Shows Off Lunar Lake-Based PC, Unveils Panther Lake for 2025
Intel's Lunar Lake runs an AI demo.
"Intel's Lunar Lake is set to evolve the multi-chiplet design seen in the upcoming Meteor Lake and Arrow Lake client CPUs. Lunar Lake will use a compute chiplet that will be made using the company's Intel's 18A (1.8nm-class) manufacturing process and will mark the first time this technology is used in a commercial application."
This is a pretty short sighted take, both from the board, investors and whoever else agrees with it. The rot had already set in when he was brought back.Stock was over $60 when Pat took the helm, it's now ~ $20. Seems to me me many investers understand the situation quite well
CPU design to release cycles are long, last time Keller did a stint there his work took 3-4 years to release. Koduri's CPU work is just coming to market in recently.
Gelsinger also had to deal with the now well known fab issues, again not a quick fix. It's a dumb decision driven by greed over long term value. IMO Intel will now more likely than not be chopped up or sold wholesale. That's more uncertainty and less competition in the market for the foreseeable future.
At no point cites any official intel source. Because it was never confirmed. Not only that but in the first article, it actually says the opposite. That 18A and LNL timeframes are not aligned.Quick google search:
"Perhaps the most interesting thing about the demo was what wasn’t said, however: the process node used for Lunar Lake’s compute (CPU) tile. In Intel’s earliest (and still most recent) public roadmap, Lunar Lake was listed to be built on the Intel 18A process. However, other disclosures from Intel today indicate that they’re only going to be starting risk production of 18A silicon in Q1’2024. Which means that for Lunar Lake to be working today, it can’t be on 18A."
Intel Shows Off Lunar Lake-Based PC, Unveils Panther Lake for 2025
Intel's Lunar Lake runs an AI demo.www.tomshardware.com
"Intel's Lunar Lake is set to evolve the multi-chiplet design seen in the upcoming Meteor Lake and Arrow Lake client CPUs. Lunar Lake will use a compute chiplet that will be made using the company's Intel's 18A (1.8nm-class) manufacturing process and will mark the first time this technology is used in a commercial application."
Regarding the yields issues “rumors”, from the man himself:
What does it say in Anandtechs picture that was taken from INTEL's roadmap ?