I wouldn't dismiss the IDF so easily given their previous track record... they've fought off a combined army of several arab states numbering twice their strength. Fighting in a civil war and/or gaining ground in a divided country with portions of the civilian population sympathetic to your cause is a far different battle to invading a hostile country with a well trained and equipped military - especially when you have no air support....
Israel/Palestine Shenanigans
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I wouldn't dismiss the IDF so easily given their previous track record... they've fought off a combined army of several arab states numbering twice their strength. Fighting in a civil war and/or gaining ground in a divided country with portions of the civilian population sympathetic to your cause is a far different battle to invading a hostile country with a well trained and equipped military - especially when you have no air support....
I'm not, but ISIS offers a different kind of threat than they currently face, the IDF operate on a pre-emptive system of defence against static and co-dependent factions, that would be difficult to execute successfully against ISIS, particularly one that has consolidated in Iraq and Syria or decides to operate an asymmetric guerrilla war across multiple borders utilising an organised structure of militant and commando operations. The IDF would need to adjust both its systematic operations and its asymmetric operations to deal with a non-localised, mobile and well armed force operating across and within its borders...something the IDF have little experience of since 1967, and even then there were substantial targets and an enemy they could retaliate against. Bombing Gaza or Lebanon won't slow down ISIS, like it does Hamas or Hezbollah, equally attacking Damascus or Bagdad won't phase them to much either such is their globalised caliphate ideology.
There is good reason why Israel and the IDF offered military and what it termed 'effective and reliable' support to moderate Arab countries in the event of an attack by ISIS, with a direct offer to Jordan should ISIS turn its attention to them. They know the potential threat ISIS could be in the future, both to the stability of the region and to Israel itself especially if it can consolidate its plan for a Caliphate in Northern Iraq and gain ascendancy over Assad in Syria.
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They do not even have proper equipment even in the pr you can see people in sandals they scavange parts from everywhere. The Hell cannon is DIY and as are most of the grenades. And then you have half the Syrian prison system within the ranks with AK-47's at night they can barely move because a MIG will bomb anything with a light on.
Now imagine those Iraqi truck convoys getting raked like the highway of death. They have no ground to air missiles only crude AA guns on the back of trucks which stick out like a sore thumb for a modern airforce. Numbers also historically count for nothing Israel is by far the number one power in the region by a fair margin and that is a field army not a guerilla army which is the tactics of nearly all of the major groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
As someone pointed out though it is Israels gain to tear up Syria because the Golan is strategic for them and if there is no Assad and only Isis the world will be a lot less critical of it. You have to look at the area as a whole Hezbollah are pretty much trapped around the Golan because the Maronites live to the north of them and Israel to the south. Golan runs pretty much right up thier Eastern flank and would make them very unhappy.
Now imagine those Iraqi truck convoys getting raked like the highway of death. They have no ground to air missiles only crude AA guns on the back of trucks which stick out like a sore thumb for a modern airforce. Numbers also historically count for nothing Israel is by far the number one power in the region by a fair margin and that is a field army not a guerilla army which is the tactics of nearly all of the major groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
As someone pointed out though it is Israels gain to tear up Syria because the Golan is strategic for them and if there is no Assad and only Isis the world will be a lot less critical of it. You have to look at the area as a whole Hezbollah are pretty much trapped around the Golan because the Maronites live to the north of them and Israel to the south. Golan runs pretty much right up thier Eastern flank and would make them very unhappy.
Guerrilla raids *if* IS are able to consolidate their position in Iraq/Syria is one thing...
But an invasion is rather a different thing altogether... the previous poster that started these series of posts (linked to above) was questioning whether IS would march on Israel...
Frankly even launching raids or attacks on Israel would be rather silly of them right now - why provoke the IDF into potentially attacking whatever elements of their command and control structure they can find... something which the USAF might well start doing fairly shortly regardless.
And given that regional powers and the west are likely going to engage in military action against them its not necessarily even likely that they'll really be able to consolidate their gains, maintain stability and launch gurrila attacks... I think an actual Invasion of Israel is a long way off and rather unlikely.
It is specifically something that Israel is concerned about however, hence their unprecedented offer of assistance to moderate Arab nations in the region, this was pointed out by Major-General Israel Ziv, a former head of the operations branch in the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) at a news conference following a meeting of the Israel Project, a Washington-based educational trust, Ziv stated that as Jordan has the longest border with his country as well as borders with Iraq and Syria, "any change or real threat that puts Jordan in instability has a direct effect on Israel".
Kuwait has already been given assistance from Iran, something else Israel is concerned about as it offers Iran the opportunity to gain influence in the moderate factions in the region, and Iran influencing nominal Israeli Allies such as Kuwait and Jordan is something that Israel can ill afford.
The complicated nature of the fighting and the way in which we see overlapping alliances and sympathies Israel is rightly concerned that ISIS could function as a unifying force for Islamist and Jihadist factions globally...this should concern us all.
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You think they're concerned about an actual invasion - or potential attacks?
Soldato
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Any talk of IS marching on Israel is laughable.
Israel have been at war since they hit the sand and build their entire identity around defence.
Look up the Six Day war and then think about it.
Seeing the Israelis drag their own citizens out of their own homes in apparent land hand over for "peace" , to then turn it into a melting pot to take out their foes, says everything you need to know about them.
The Jews from WW2 going home is the tale we spill to make us feel warm and glowy, but fundamentally this state is entirely different.
Their airforce would not be taken on rationally by any nation other than the US, and that says it all.
With the collapse of many countries in the region, with Israel being untouched you got to wonder what the end game truly is. Syria and Iraq falling isn't a coincidence. Jordan gets a pass because they play nice with the west now. They also somehow manage to keep the peace.
Israel have been at war since they hit the sand and build their entire identity around defence.
Look up the Six Day war and then think about it.
Seeing the Israelis drag their own citizens out of their own homes in apparent land hand over for "peace" , to then turn it into a melting pot to take out their foes, says everything you need to know about them.
The Jews from WW2 going home is the tale we spill to make us feel warm and glowy, but fundamentally this state is entirely different.
Their airforce would not be taken on rationally by any nation other than the US, and that says it all.
With the collapse of many countries in the region, with Israel being untouched you got to wonder what the end game truly is. Syria and Iraq falling isn't a coincidence. Jordan gets a pass because they play nice with the west now. They also somehow manage to keep the peace.
Both. They are concerned, and would be silly to ignore, the potential for increased instability in the region already in flux as well as the stated aims of ISIS which include the absorption of Palestine (inc Israel) into its idealised Caliphate. Attacks directly on Israel would be seen as invasive, particularly if they were part of a wider theatre of operations consolidating such a Caliphate. The Israel concerns regarding Jordan are particularly pertinent as Jordan has a huge border which would be virtually impossible for the IDF to lock down effectively. This isn't Hamas operating out of Gaza or Hezbollah conducting small attacks out of Lebanon and Golan, it would be a systematic and concerted theatre of operations with the intent to destabilise and fracture Israeli society. That's not saying its easy or that ISIS is going to or is able to turn its attention to Israel today or tomorrow, but it is a real and present issue that Israel is realistically concerned about, as are other Arab and Western Nations.
Soldato
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Israel freely fly drones directly over Iran. They wouldn't bat an eyelid at melting IS folk in Jordan's borders. Jordan wouldn't care neither. Jordan are not driven by Religion. That is a common misconception.
"high human development" ..... and..... third freest economy in West Asia and North Africa (32nd freest worldwide). Jordan has an "upper middle income" economy.
They won't jeopardise that for anyone.
Yes..there is a risk of attacks *if* and there are a few Ifs really.... I'm not disputing that if certain events occur there might be attacks, nor am I disputing that IS needs to be dealt with. I'm disputing the idea that IS is going to attempt to march in Israel/invade any time soon.... In fact the likelihood is that for as long as IS exists and is holding ground they're not going to have any form of stability - the regional powers and the west are steeping up the rhetoric and really aren't going to sit back with IS attempting to form a state.
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ISIS isn't going to directly attack Israel anytime soon...it offers significant issues to Israel however in other areas, particularly with the influence Iran can gain within the region and the influx of jihadists into Syria and Jordan. Israel have never been one to rest on their laurels and ignore any potential threat, this is no different and if Israel preempt something then we might see a change in ISIS operations. Its so fluid at the moment that no one can be sure what next week will bring, let alone several months or a year from now. Western reluctance to enter into the conflict doesn't help Israel, Jordan or Syria either.
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The smart move would be to let them form a state and then destroy them under the protection of the Geneva convention as if they were the second coming of Hitler.
Otherwise they will just scatter and form insurgencies in surrounding areas.
I don't think any nation on earth would be opposed to taking them out at this stage. It would also solve Cameron's passport problem.
Maybe that's actually the plan and explains Obama's increasing golf obsession. I can't think of any better reason unless he really is a coward.
I'm not sure you really understand what's being stated and discussed here frankly.
well quite... or at least not in any serious capacity for the moment. That was my main gripe previously - the idea put mentioned by the other poster of IS's expansion turning into them 'marching on Israel' is a tad unrealistic....
I don't disagree... though it does seem increasingly likely that the US and UK are going to be dragged into some form of intervention in Syria fairly soon.
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I don't know whether he was speaking about immediate or potentially. Immediately the situation means that ISIS is not positioned to be able to directly threaten Israel unless there is significant change in the Assad/Syrian situation, then Israel may well have 50,000+ Caliphate jihadists sitting on its doorstep, which might alter the situation somewhat. I would say its more likely that Jordan and other Arab States would take precedence to ISIS stated aims however, although this would mean significant threat to Israel in itself.
As much as I hate to say it they need to support Assad as he has the best chance of stabilising Syria and maintaining a stable administration. It was short sighted to assume everyone in the Arab spring was going to be fighting for democratic freedom and our idea of Statehood or that Assad was wrong in what he was saying about the insurgency in Syria. Syria is a real risk of becoming another extremist Jihadi State if Assad falls. They won't do that though and they can't support the rebels either as they are in effect part of or connected to ISIS or other jihadist movements opposed to Western influence in the Middle East.
Not one rocket from Hamas, so whats the pro-israeli's excuses for all this?
http://www.stopwar.org.uk/news/sinc...ot-fired-a-single-rocket-what-has-israel-done
They do this everytime and the mass media keeps shtum about it - as soon as theres one piece of aggression against the Israel its all over the news to make it out like the palestinians started it again.
http://www.stopwar.org.uk/news/sinc...ot-fired-a-single-rocket-what-has-israel-done
They do this everytime and the mass media keeps shtum about it - as soon as theres one piece of aggression against the Israel its all over the news to make it out like the palestinians started it again.
What is the RToP?
The Russell Tribunal on Palestine is an International People’s Tribunal created by a large group of citizens involved in the promotion of peace and justice in the Middle East
http://www.scriptonitedaily.com/201...es-today-the-testimony-will-break-your-heart/
Another interesting development:
Funny how we recognise the state of Israel but refuse to recognise the state of Palestine (especially when the UN recently have!)
The Russell Tribunal on Palestine is an International People’s Tribunal created by a large group of citizens involved in the promotion of peace and justice in the Middle East
http://www.scriptonitedaily.com/201...es-today-the-testimony-will-break-your-heart/
Another interesting development:
Funny how we recognise the state of Israel but refuse to recognise the state of Palestine (especially when the UN recently have!)
Good to see the protests here had some effect.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29596822
Not sure if its a good thing or not though as I've never believed in a two-state solution being the answer- It should be one state and EVERYONE should be equal regardless of them being jewish, muslim or christian.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29596822
Not sure if its a good thing or not though as I've never believed in a two-state solution being the answer- It should be one state and EVERYONE should be equal regardless of them being jewish, muslim or christian.
So who do you think should be in charge of your proposed 1 state solution ?
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