I think in hindsight it's a cash out for lay bets, when team A or B score and the current result is NOT a draw, there is liquidity in the market to cash out for a profit.
Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)
- Thread starter knowlton
- Start date
I think in hindsight it's a cash out for lay bets, when team A or B score and the current result is NOT a draw, there is liquidity in the market to cash out for a profit.
Permabanned
- Joined
- 24 Oct 2012
- Posts
- 25,863
- Location
- Godalming
One of the guys is always posting mega profits and stuff. Today he lost a paddy power account and is "down to 11". Says it all really.
Lol indeed, just wow.
I also am pretty convinced some of the members on there work at bookies.
Caporegime
- Joined
- 1 Dec 2010
- Posts
- 53,743
- Location
- Welling, London
Pretty much this. Study the stats, pick games with good stats for goals and make your selections. Lay them for what you can afford to lose and when, if, a goal is scored, the odds on the draw will go up and you can lay off for a profit. Obviously if you are on a game where the outsider scores first, then the odds will come in and you will be on a small loss. it's up to you whether to settle for a small loss or hold on for possible profit, but also a potential big loss.
There's a program called Bet Angel. Most don't use it because of the cost, it's £150 a year, but it does have some very useful tools for this type of betting. First is Soccer Mystic, which allows you to play out a range of different scenarios to see the likely odds if a certain event happens, for example, a goal for the favourites after 10 minutes. You can use that to plan your approach to the game.
Second is Guardian. A great feature where you can add matches to a list and apply an automated strategy, set up by yourself, to trade the games automatically. A lay draw the scenario will lay the draw before the off, monitor the game throughout and when a goal is scored, if there is profit to be had after the unsuspend, it will green up automatically for you.
This video explains it better than I can.
Wow, interesting piece of software that!
Edit: Just downloaded the software and messing around in practice mode, it seems pretty straight forward and there is scope to pretty much learn the tricks of the trade with the more experience you have.
I may give the 24 hour access for £0.99 a try this weekend and see how it goes.
Edit: Just downloaded the software and messing around in practice mode, it seems pretty straight forward and there is scope to pretty much learn the tricks of the trade with the more experience you have.
I may give the 24 hour access for £0.99 a try this weekend and see how it goes.
Last edited:
Low risk is irrelevant, it should be +EV.
If it isn't then it is dumb regardless of whether it is high or low risk.
Associate
- Joined
- 27 Sep 2011
- Posts
- 1,597
Just read your post on the Facebook group Englander and have to say I completely agree with it. I've been tempted to say something myself when people post their gambling profits. It's not what the group, or indeed matched betting is/should be about and it might cause others to attempt to emulate that success themselves. IMO it should be actively discouraged within the group and if people want to spend their own money chasing 'wins' on the slots then frankly they should go elsewhere to discuss it.
Soldato
- Joined
- 14 Jul 2005
- Posts
- 9,120
- Location
- Birmingham
Would you mind just doing a worked example of the maths of this please?
Perhaps assume that the 1x2 on a game is odds of 2.0, 4.0 and 6.0 respectively and the first team scores moving the odds to 1.4, 7.0 and 12.0. What are the calculations you make to lock in profit?
Soldato
- Joined
- 30 Sep 2005
- Posts
- 16,728
I completely agree, there was a mega brag post this morning, I think I know who you are now on there, ha!
Personally I've refrained from posting about punt wins because it defeats the whole purpose of what Yesbets is about, and as you say it seems like a contest of who made the most money.
A large majority of the community simply cannot sit at the computer all day like some of those folk do, and when they try to make out everyone should be making X amount of money I can't help but facepalm (I had one chap who seemed to get frustrated at the fact I took a higher QL and that I should be aiming for much less - the only problem is I'm not going to spend my whole day observing the market to secure a lower QL just because he can).
There comes a point where you can see which members are spending hours and hours a day on MB, not something I'll ever do, end of the day it's top up spending money and will never substitute salary income.
The best advice I can give, is don't try to emulate others. Ignore everyone. Become a robot. Stick to the plan and make yourself whatever amount of profit you can. Yes, there are those who make thousands, but they sit there all day everyday. Most people work full time and can only spend 30mins a day doing it. If you only make £50 a week, it's still £50 a week.
Caporegime
- Joined
- 1 Dec 2010
- Posts
- 53,743
- Location
- Welling, London
Well you use a back/lay calculator (arbcruncher's is the best) to calculate it like you would a normal matched betting qualifier.
So you lay 4.0 for £20 (liability £60)
Then back at 7.0 for £11.43 (profit £68.58)
£68.58-£60.00 = £8.58 profit
However if you are backing and laying through the betfair website or an API, then the calculations are done for you and you can just click cash out or green up.
This - this is my take on it. I'm self employed, 2 kids, mortgage etc. I'm laying the draws and trading out for small profits. On a good weekend with about 60 mins work pre game and then watching the scores during the afternoon, I can make around £50 a day on a Saturday/Sunday. During the week, less games that I pick, therefore less profit. So maybe more like £15/£20 a week day.
Betangel give you a free trial which you can use instead of paying
Gruss Software - gives you 30 day free trial - similar software
Cymatics - free all the time
Betangel is the most sophisticated and in depth one but costs the most long term. But even at £150 a year, it's peanuts.
I've tried them all and they are much of a muchness.
I don't use it for laying the draws, but I do use Gruss for scalping etc.
I started casually football trading at the weekends, more to supplement and add to the enjoyment of the game whilst I was watching it.
I use Geekstoy, but I have contemplated using BetAngel for the footie wizard.
I only bet small, so my returns are also small, but I picked up around 200 quid in the past 4 weeks which isnt bad for a novice I suppose.
I have tried it on horse racing and had some level of success. Mainly using patternform to try and highlight those horses that like to lead from the off (might not necessarily win). I then back the horse and lay once the horse starts to lead. This can be automated IF your lay bet gets matched. If not and you are not watching the screen, your trade turns into a punt more than anything.
Traders like Caan Berry and Peter Webb seem to have some sixth sense in respect of this.
I use Geekstoy, but I have contemplated using BetAngel for the footie wizard.
I only bet small, so my returns are also small, but I picked up around 200 quid in the past 4 weeks which isnt bad for a novice I suppose.
I have tried it on horse racing and had some level of success. Mainly using patternform to try and highlight those horses that like to lead from the off (might not necessarily win). I then back the horse and lay once the horse starts to lead. This can be automated IF your lay bet gets matched. If not and you are not watching the screen, your trade turns into a punt more than anything.
Traders like Caan Berry and Peter Webb seem to have some sixth sense in respect of this.
Last nights games I chose here's an example of my one. I pick selected matches based on certain criteria being met, goals, scoreline odds, home/.away etc. I;m still refining it.
Sevilla v Athletic Bilbao - pre game layed the draw @ 4.2 for £20.
Sevilla were favourites and scored early doors (14 mins) to go 1-0. Odd on the draw now 7.0
So backed the draw £12 @7.0.
So if the result stays the same (which it did) - I lose the £12 I bet on the draw at 7.0, but I win £20 from the lay before the start.
So no matter what the result is I from anytime after the 14th min, I win £8 minus 5% betfair commission. locked in the profit. Just use the cashout option on betfair - it does the work for you! Tells you a running profit/loss.
Saying that 2 winners last night and a looser. So overall I'm down last night by about £50.
AZ Alkmaar 0 - 0 Cambuur so laying the draw isn't some holy grail !!
Associate
- Joined
- 25 Sep 2016
- Posts
- 174
Yes, +EV if we're being technical but I'm only a layman so I like to keep it simple! The case I raised on the Yesbets group related to gambling one's own money on a slot without any bonus offer etc, therefore it was -EV. The user in question justified her accounting by saying it was the house's money, so it was therefore fine, and that she also had a "system", which it transpired is basically the Martingale strategy applied to slots.
I just think it's a very easy line to cross: matched betting into punting the odd "win" here or there. It's not what matched betting is about and I just don't think it has a place in a matched betting group. What concerns me is that someone (not sure who) actually punted their matched betting winnings on the slots, lost it all, and subsequently self-exiled himself from matched betting lest he generate a net loss. Despite someone mentioning the user who lost out, there was actually a new post soon after where someone was eagerly testing this new-fangled Martingale strategy on another slot! Surprise surprise, they came out with a loss.
Incidentally, I also think sports trading is another thing that gets conflated with matched betting too often, but that is a whole different kettle of fish entirely
Worth remembering that for every Peter Webb, there's a hundred (random number plucked out of the air) wannabe traders who bust out their bank without advertising it. Peter Webb, in particular, has a trading program to sell (he made Bet Angel), so of course his videos are going to make sports trading look effortless.Yes, +EV if we're being technical but I'm only a layman so I like to keep it simple! The case I raised on the Yesbets group related to gambling one's own money on a slot without any bonus offer etc, therefore it was -EV. The user in question justified her accounting by saying it was the house's money, so it was therefore fine, and that she also had a "system", which it transpired is basically the Martingale strategy applied to slots.
I just think it's a very easy line to cross: matched betting into punting the odd "win" here or there. It's not what matched betting is about and I just don't think it has a place in a matched betting group. What concerns me is that someone (not sure who) actually punted their matched betting winnings on the slots, lost it all, and subsequently self-exiled himself from matched betting lest he generate a net loss. Despite someone mentioning the user who lost out, there was actually a new post soon after where someone was eagerly testing this new-fangled Martingale strategy on another slot! Surprise surprise, they came out with a loss.
Incidentally, I also think sports trading is another thing that gets conflated with matched betting too often, but that is a whole different kettle of fish entirely
I agree with all of this. On the Oddsmonkey forum it irritates me when people talk about a huge win on the back of a free bet or a small stake. Unless that bet was laid off IMO its not match betting its gambling. MBing is about ZERO risk.
In respect of trading, you need IMO massive balls to go heavy with trading. You can lose a mountain of money very quickly because there is RISK attached to it which MBing shoudnt have.
I switched to the annual sub because I'd had a good week and figured it would save me some cash in the long run. Previously I'd tried a few of the casino risk free offers and had always busted out. I did the first one on the CC and made £20 on it. I don't bother with the other CC offers, just the totally risk free ones when they come around. If I can use the profits from those just to cover the sub I'll be happy. I find slots tedious and I'm averse to risking my own money anyway! Sure some people have won big on them, but I'm fairly happy just plugging away at MB. I don't spend huge amounts of time on it and don't clear anywhere near what some people do but at the end of the day it's extra pocket money for me.
I've set my self the target if £500 profit and when i hit that I'll switch to an annual sub. Signed up 2 weeks ago and up to £168 so far
all of it is gambling, so long as it is +EV then it is all good. Laying off costs you money, some people are less risk averse than others - I wouldn't conflate someone trying some silly martingale system with someone making use of a free bet without laying
Soldato
- Joined
- 14 Jul 2005
- Posts
- 9,120
- Location
- Birmingham
Thanks for posting.
So you're pretty screwed if it stays nil nil in a game then basically, or maybe if the outsider scores as the draw odds might drop not rise.
Potential for £8 profit or a £60 loss means that you'll need to hit 6 in 7 roughly to break even on it, which I can see is doable but not without risk. Probably not for me given the work involved.