Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)

booyaka said:
Also personally withdrawing money immediately after a win is a sure sign of someone who is only interested in offers etc - leave the money in until you need it etc.
Click to expand...


See I think the other way here. I withdraw as soon as I can, which makes me look like a punter who's taking his win for a few pints down the boozer. Someone who leaves wedge in the bookie screams someone who is waiting for offers again.

Just a different perspective issall. I don't think there's any logic or reason to gubbing though. I think these guys play pin the tail on the donkey blindfolded to select gubbees or something.
 
booyaka said:
What diddums said - back Man Utd or whoever every game they play, lay off on exchange, cost you maybe 50p. A few acca's etc.

Also personally withdrawing money immediately after a win is a sure sign of someone who is only interested in offers etc - leave the money in until you need it etc.

Betfair won't gub you but be careful as paddy power and betfair are the same company so if betting on PP, lay off on smarkets.
Click to expand...

There are two schools of thought on mug betting. Some go for the "pick a team and always bet on them" approach as Diddums advocates, whilst others would suggest that there is limited evidence that it makes much difference at all. If I'm not mistaken, Diddums has some impressively old accounts which he's held on to successfully for a long time.

Ultimately, if you keep hitting reloads you will get gubbed... eventually. Whether that's in 1 week or 3 months is notoriously difficult to predict. I, personally, go for the 'hit them hard and fast' approach. There are plenty of people who, anecdotally, have placed mug bets religiously and still lost accounts quickly.
 
azibux1 said:
Thanks for the tips! :) Especially re PP and betfair, didn't know about that!

Point taken with regards to withdrawing money, sounds reasonable enough... I just didn't want to leave any behind in various accounts with bookies accidentally because I've only been doing it since Saturday and already signed up with about 5 or 6 bookies. Could be a high potential to have money spread across loads of places and forget about it, no?

Also with regards to the mug betting, similar to the point above with regards to loads of bookies, do you tend to mug bet on all of them, or just try and keep accounts with the important/main ones for ongoing stuff? Could be up to 20 or 30 bookies I guess in a few weeks and that would be a lot of mug betting to keep track of surely?
Click to expand...

Mug bet the ones that you are likely to use for offers ongoing etc - bet365/paddy/william hill etc - anything that is likely to be used in the future. Don't stress about mug betting too much, just every so often so as not the have a pattern
 
All sounds like it could be a bit hit and miss then, maybe with a bit of luck mixed in... regardless of if you place the mug bets or not

Thanks for the tips all! :) Enjoying it so far! :D
 
azibux1 said:
Thank you very much!! f

Like so?

I think I get the general reasoning behind that, so that is cancelling out the extra liability I accidentally gave myself with the wrong lay?

EDIT: So the only time I would be liable for the £99.26 is if Krasnodar actually DO win, so if that happens the back bet will win and give me £49.60 ... and the remainder of the liability will be covered by the free bet/stake on Comeon?

Am I correct in my understanding? Good to know for future

Thank you again!

loJqBFR.png
Click to expand...

Looks good to me.

If Kransnodar win you will get your £57 at Come On! and £49.60 from your back bet at Betfair, less 99.26 liability leaving you £7.35 profit. If they draw or lose then it's 15.51-8 less 5% commission, so £7.13.
 
Amusingly after being gubbed from most places after the Euros and not touching MBing since then (i'm certainly missing the extra income :( ) i've just had an email from PP to say they've also now removed me from Best Odds Guaranteed (the only thing they didn't remove previously) :p Can't wait to move house and get signed up again :o
 
For those not signed up to Yesbets, here's a link to their free month Cheltenham offer :)

https://www.yesbets.co.uk/cheltenham-2017/

Honestly if you're even slightly curious or interested, try the free month and see how it goes. Almost everyone I've met who has tried this is still loving it today and making a decent bit of cash on the side.

Enjoy!
 
Asking the dumb questions again, yet to do any horse bets.

For the First race, money back if loose offers - are you looking to pick favourites or those with the highest odds? I think I know the answer here of course (highest odds - biggest return if they win). I assume you will also be risking these, not laying? (due to the refund).

In regards to the 2nd place refund offers, any tips? Or again, back and lay a random home, hope they finish 2nd?

Thanks
 
With the refund you're punting so do what you want and don't lay off. Favourite is the favourite for a reason so there's more chance of it winning in theory but higher odds gives you more rewards. Do whichever you feel like as long as the odds are greater than 2.0 (otherwise you'd be better off 'losing' because you'd make more from your free bet refund)

With 2nd place refund, smart strategy is if there's more than one bookie doing it then pick different short odd runners with different bookies in the same race.
 
BigT said:
With the refund you're punting so do what you want and don't lay off. Favourite is the favourite for a reason so there's more chance of it winning in theory but higher odds gives you more rewards. Do whichever you feel like as long as the odds are greater than 2.0 (otherwise you'd be better off 'losing' because you'd make more from your free bet refund)
Click to expand...

Thanks - I'll revisit the guide this evening and come up with my own sort of "plan of attack".

With 2nd place refund, smart strategy is if there's more than one bookie doing it then pick different short odd runners with different bookies in the same race.
Click to expand...

So just to confirm, again not with all the lingo (yet), target the true favourites and hope for the best? Do you lay them also?

Thanks
 
Last edited:
tlrBeta said:
So just to confirm, again not with all the lingo (yet), target the true favourites and hope for the best? Do you lay them also?
Click to expand...

These are not silly questions so don't worry. Actually people may have different strategies. In short I'd bet and lay them all, but people will underlay or do other things dependent on risk appetite.

Here's an example of my approach. Say a field has horses with odds of 3 , 4, 6, 9, 10, 12 , 15, 20 , 50, 200, 200, 500

Let's say three bookmakers are doing refund if 2nd @£20. I'd bet and lay the first three horses. Say 3/3.2 , 4/4.4, 6/6.5 as examples of what lay odds I might get

If none of them came second I'd probably have a loss of £2.50, but if one of them comes second then I'd get a £20 refund out of which I can make £17.50 and thus be £15 up

Others may advocate just punting (i.e. bet) all three and not laying. You stand a decent chance of hitting both 1st and 2nd resulting in much more profit. however if none of them come first or second you lose £60.

that's why its about appetite for risk with these offers.
 
Last edited:
BigT said:
These are not sill questions so don't worry. Actually people may have different strategies. In short I'd bet and lay them all, but people will underlay or do other things dependent on risk appetite.

Here's an example of my approach. Say a field has horses with odds of 3 , 4, 6, 9, 10, 12 , 15, 20 , 50, 200, 200, 500

Let's say three bookmakers are doing refund if 2nd @£20. I'd bet and lay the first three horses. Say 3/3.2 , 4/4.4, 6/6.5

If none of them came second I'd probably have a loss of £2.50, but if one of them comes second then I'd get a £20 refund out of which I can make £17.50 and thus be £15 up

Others may advocate just punting (i.e. bet) all three and not laying. You stand a decent chance of hitting both 1st and 2nd resulting in much more profit. however if none of them come first or second you lose £60.

that's why its about appetite for risk with these offers.
Click to expand...

Thank you, very useful to bringing it to life :)
 
I think it may be what has been covered above, not 100% sure as still a beginner so apologies if so...

With a lot of joining offers I've come across (still trying to sort a yesbets account), they only give you the free bet if your first bet loses.

So am I correct in saying:

- Play first bet AND lay first bet as normal
- If it wins at the bookie it covers your loss at the exchange BUT you get no free bet then... So likely end up losing ~60p or whatever? And that's the end of that?
- If it loses at the bookie, you never really lose as it was laid at the exchange, and you get the free bet then repeat the process as normal?

More curious to know the answer to the middle point... but I think I'm correct in what I've said?

So the smart idea would be to pick something very unlikely to win at the bookies? So that you get the free one?
 
If you are doing a 'free bet if your bet loses' offer then there is normally an option to underlay in the calculator you use. There's often a setting for working it out as a risk free bet.

So for example you bet £20 @ 2 and lay £10 @ 2. If the back bet wins you win £20 but lose £10 on the lay - profit of £10. If the back bet loses you lose your £20 stake, keep the £10 lay - loss of £10 but you get a free bet of £20 as a refund. You make £17 out of that and so you are £7 up overall profit.

The calculators would tell you exactly what to lay in the first instance to get the same amount of profit either way based on a typical 80% extraction out of a free bet value

Having said that, some would advocate what you said as it has the potential to return more. As long as your loss isn't too bad if the back bet wins then the argument is that you will win more in the long run doing it the way you suggest, backing and laying long shots to get that free bet from which you get to extract more profit. I'm more risk averse so like to lock a consistent profit in.
 
BigT said:
If you are doing a 'free bet if your bet loses' offer then there is normally an option to underlay in the calculator you use. There's often a setting for working it out as a risk free bet.

So for example you bet £20 @ 2 and lay £10 @ 2. If the back bet wins you win £20 but lose £10 on the lay - profit of £10. If the back bet loses you lose your £20 stake, keep the £10 lay - loss of £10 but you get a free bet of £20 as a refund. You make £17 out of that and so you are £7 up overall profit.

The calculators would tell you exactly what to lay in the first instance to get the same amount of profit either way based on a typical 80% extraction out of a free bet value

Having said that, some would advocate what you said as it has the potential to return more. As long as your loss isn't too bad if the back bet wins then the argument is that you will win more in the long run doing it the way you suggest, backing and laying long shots to get that free bet from which you get to extract more profit. I'm more risk averse so like to lock a consistent profit in.
Click to expand...
Thanks for that. I think as you say I'd rather take the risk free approach, especially as (for me at least) that's the main point of matched betting when I first got started recently.

I just need to have a search for a better calculator now. The profit accumulator one doesn't have that option from what I remember. Unless I try advanced mode which I saw on there once, will check it out later

Thanks!
 
BigT said:
I don't know about PA as I'm a yesbets user but this one does risk free calculations and is free to use:

https://matchedbettingblog.com/matched-betting-calculator/
Click to expand...
Thank you. One more question please if you don't mind. Does that calculator cover the ones where you need to wager the bonus sometimes one, two, or even three times? Or is it simply best to avoid those offers like I am at the moment?

Haven't checked your link yet as I'm on my phone

Thanks!
 
Wagering requirements aren't really a factor in the calculator. Basically you're pretty much always looking to lose your back bet because if it does then the wagering requirements are irrelevant. If you win and there are 2x , 3x or whatever wagering requirements then your subsequent wagers are just calculated as a normal bet, trying to lose as little as possible by backing and laying until you've met the requirements and can withdraw.
 
BigT said:
Basically you're pretty much always looking to lose your back bet because if it does then the wagering requirements are irrelevant
Click to expand...

That's true, I sort of overlooked that to be honest.

BigT said:
If you win and there are 2x , 3x or whatever wagering requirements then your subsequent wagers are just calculated as a normal bet, trying to lose as little as possible by backing and laying until you've met the requirements and can withdraw.
Click to expand...

Yeah some of them seem a bit over the top and not worth the hassle, like wagering 2x or 3x the initial bet PLUS bonus amount ... seems a bit much
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom