Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)

Gigabit said:
No scam here, I've been on this forum for years.

Here's my lovely graph of P/L vs EV over time. The EV being positive is where the value is, in the long term!

GNMxJRb.png

Either do the offers or don't. But over the long term you will likely make a decent profit.
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Thats a good chart thanks for posting.

But two thirds of the way along you were still at zero profit despite all the work, and youd lost £2k in the short space of time before that (not sure what scale your x axis is). I dont think i can handle that much risk.

One could say you got extremely lucky to recover that position in the last chunk of time, because your ev line in practice rebases after every offer. I.e at point 307 where you hit zero, your future ev line should in practice start from there, so would rise to about £2k not £6k. This is because you cant change the past. An offer should be ev+ but if you dont win its gone, and you only then expect to win the ev from future offers, not greater than it.

What troubles me with these charts is I have never seen anyone post one where they stay ahead of the ev curve. Everyone ive seen is always behind the ev curve for some considerable time, like yours is, before hitting a big win. This is just probability we are measuring here, so there should be people out there who by chance have outperformed the line.
 
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danlightbulb said:
Thats a good chart thanks for posting.

But two thirds of the way along you were still at zero profit despite all the work, and youd lost £2k in the short space of time before that (not sure what scale your x axis is). I dont think i can handle that much risk.

One could say you got extremely lucky to recover that position in the last chunk of time, because your ev line in practice rebases after every offer. I.e at point 307 where you hit zero, your future ev line should in practice start from there, so would rise to about £2k not £6k. This is because you cant change the past. An offer should be ev+ but if you dont win its gone, and you only then expect to win the ev from future offers, not greater than it.

What troubles me with these charts is I have never seen anyone post one where they stay ahead of the ev curve. Everyone ive seen is always behind the ev curve for some considerable time, like yours is, before hitting a big win. This is just probability we are measuring here, so there should be people out there who by chance have outperformed the line.
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There are some like that on PM. I’ll find one for you.
 
danlightbulb said:
Id also like to know whether you changed your approach at or around point 415. Did you switch to higher varience slots, or increase spin value?
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Nope I’d changed to Guns n Roses from TED, Gonzo, King Kong Cash, about 50 offers prior.

I actually increased the spin size to higher spins at the same time and increased the spin size again after that big win.

Hope that helps mate. And I’ve said many times, lots of risk here and no guarantees of money. So don’t anyone take this as a get rich quick scheme because it certainly is not.
 
Gigabit said:
Nope I’d changed to Guns n Roses from TED, Gonzo, King Kong Cash, about 50 offers prior.

I actually increased the spin size to higher spins at the same time and increased the spin size again after that big win.

Hope that helps mate. And I’ve said many times, lots of risk here and no guarantees of money. So don’t anyone take this as a get rich quick scheme because it certainly is not.
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Hmm so you actually switched to lower variance slot then, because GnR is low/mid and the ones you were playing were high/vhigh. But you compensated for that by increasing spin size.
 
danlightbulb said:
Hmm so you actually switched to lower variance slot then, because GnR is low/mid and the ones you were playing were high/vhigh. But you compensated for that by increasing spin size.
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That’s it mate yes.

I’ve switched to Immortal Romanve now when it’s not banned and have also decreased the spin size again. Hit another large win last night and am now £5.5K for the month and now £1000 or so above EV for the first time ever.
 
Giga it's good of you to share your strategy, thanks. What's your threshold for going in? 100% bonus? And what wagering? I might have a little dabble but more for fun than anything. It is gambling after all, and I despise gambling.
 
Just started this again after nearly a year off!

Starting with a small bank to build slowly, waiting for withdrawals is the hardest part at the early stages!
 
Gigabit said:
No scam here, I've been on this forum for years.

Here's my lovely graph of P/L vs EV over time. The EV being positive is where the value is, in the long term!

Either do the offers or don't. But over the long term you will likely make a decent profit.
Click to expand...

The two lines, real/EV will always converge eventually, i had one for poker, but i cannot imagine how you are getting positive EV at a casino??

I understand about those offers, free bets, or boosted bets, but surely you've used them all or what?

danlightbulb said:
An offer should be ev+ but if you dont win its gone, and you only then expect to win the ev from future offers, not greater than it..
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Your EV can only go down if you do a negative EV action.

If you only do positive EV actions, then your actual value will always converge with your expected value eventually.
 
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As a United fan, I happened to be out for the game and didn't even think it was worth doing 2UP on City especially after checking the score early on. What a mistake. Some people on PA made thousands from that game :eek::o
 
platinum87 said:
If you only do positive EV actions, then your actual value will always converge with your expected value eventually.
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In terms of probability theory I dont think your view is correct. I am happy to be proved wrong but let me use an example to demonstrate.

A coin is tossed a million times. At the outset, you expect to get a 50/50 heads tails split.

However if after half the tosses you have a 60/40 split (possible because the toss is random and so there is varience in it).

If you carry on to a million tosses you cannot expect to recover the 50/50 split, you would expect the remaining tosses to be split 50/50 but you cant change the tosses that have already happened. Your final outcome, after a million tosses, would be expected to be 55/45.

Your EV behaves the same way. If, after half the number of offers you will ever do, you are off curve, you would not expect to recover to that original curve. You might do, but its lucky (varience affecting you positively) rather than the expected outcome.
 
danlightbulb said:
In terms of probability theory I dont think your view is correct. I am happy to be proved wrong but let me use an example to demonstrate.

A coin is tossed a million times. At the outset, you expect to get a 50/50 heads tails split.

However if after half the tosses you have a 60/40 split (possible because the toss is random and so there is varience in it).

If you carry on to a million tosses you cannot expect to recover the 50/50 split, you would expect the remaining tosses to be split 50/50 but you cant change the tosses that have already happened. Your final outcome, after a million tosses, would be expected to be 55/45.

Your EV behaves the same way. If, after half the number of offers you will ever do, you are off curve, you would not expect to recover to that original curve. You might do, but its lucky (varience affecting you positively) rather than the expected outcome.
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To slightly correct what i said, it doesn't matter what actions you do, either EV+ or EV-, but EV and real will always converge.

After a million coin tosses, your expected outcome would be 50/50

If after half a million it is actually 60/40, it does not change the previous statement.

The second half of the coin tosses is expected to be 50/50, while the entire million is also expected to be 50/50.

Perhaps i cannot explain this, but trust me, it is correct.

The problem you are doing, i think, is randomly stopping and saying, ok previous results are now fixed, from now on its 50/50 again
 
Sorry but i think thats where your assumption is incorrect. Previous results are clearly fixed, you cant change them. If you have not achieved ev after a large number of offers then you have experienced variance on the negative side against the odds, i.e bad luck.

the entire million coin tosses is not expected to be 50/50 if you already know the outcome of half the results.

You dont have infinite offers to do. Therefore the offers you have already done cannot be recovered to expected value by only getting the expected value on future offers, you can only get back there by experiencing greater than ev for a time, which is luck by definition.

If you could do infinite offers your view might be correct im not sure. Certainly over an infinite time the actual and expected would converge to within undetectable limits. unfortunately you cant get anywhere near the sample volume needed to do this during a standard lifetime.

ill knock up some charts later to illustrate this.
 
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Heads up, Grand National tomorrow. bet365 are doing their £125 ew offer again and there's monies to be made if you hit an extra place, though the field is large so covering could be pricey.
 
platinum87 said:
To slightly correct what i said, it doesn't matter what actions you do, either EV+ or EV-, but EV and real will always converge.

After a million coin tosses, your expected outcome would be 50/50

If after half a million it is actually 60/40, it does not change the previous statement.

The second half of the coin tosses is expected to be 50/50, while the entire million is also expected to be 50/50.

Perhaps i cannot explain this, but trust me, it is correct.

The problem you are doing, i think, is randomly stopping and saying, ok previous results are now fixed, from now on its 50/50 again
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If after half a million tosses you have a 60/40 split then your expectation for the whole million, given those tosses, is now 55/45, there isn't an expectation for it to converge to 50/50 within those next half a million tosses - that is called gamblers fallacy and is a well known mistake people make - for example people watching a sequence of reds on a roulette view and deciding that it is now more likely that a black will appear etc...

You may still want to plot your EV from the start vs your results though.
 
dowie said:
If after half a million tosses you have a 60/40 split then your expectation for the whole million, given those tosses, is now 55/45, there isn't an expectation for it to converge to 50/50 within those next half a million tosses - that is called gamblers fallacy and is a well known mistake people make - for example people watching a sequence of reds on a roulette view and deciding that it is now more likely that a black will appear etc...

You may still want to plot your EV from the start vs your results though.
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Making a 2nd expectation does not invalidate the first one, they are both correct at the same time.

My point is If you at any stage alter your historical EV data, then you would simply mess it up, and it would be insane nonsense.

What does your last sentence even mean, it is totally incorrect, you should always plot every action.
 
platinum87 said:
Making a 2nd expectation does not invalidate the first one, they are both correct at the same time.
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No, not at the same time. One is what your expectation was at the start, the other is your expectation given your knowledge of the previous 500k tosses.

My point is If you at any stage alter your historical EV data, then you would simply mess it up, and it would be insane nonsense.

What does your last sentence even mean, it is totally incorrect, you should always plot every action.
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What is incorrect about saying you may want to plot your EV from the start?
 
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