Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)

Gambling is the wagering of money or something of material value (referred to as "the stakes") on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods. Gambling thus requires three elements be present: consideration, chance and prize.
Click to expand...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambling

you'll find that what you're doing and sites you're using are regulated by..... 'the gambling commission' because, well, you're gambling

you might also use the term colloquially to refer to taking a big risk - rushing across the road in traffic 'that was a bit of a gamble' - perhaps that is where you're getting confused with the term
 
Last edited:
Splitting hairs,

So far I have made £102.00 profit in 3 days. Not entirely sure if I should upgrade to premium on PA, especially since they actively promote multi accounting.

With the football season just beginning should I be looking into accumulators?
 
Wouldnt insurance providers qualify as gambling then Dowie, this is also hedged with unknown consequences for a small overall profit.

Saying that its apparently how Buffet got so rich, he gambled via insurance premiums investing them before payout so Ive read.


One thing, do I need to know anything about football to do this kind of 'bet' in that sport for example. I did the world cup offers and just about got it all ok
 
Last edited:
silversurfer said:
Wouldnt insurance providers qualify as gambling then Dowie, this is also hedged with unknown consequences for a small overall profit.

Saying that its apparently how Buffet got so rich, he gambled via insurance premiums investing them before payout so Ive read.
Click to expand...

it is certainly rather similar and in some senses can be - though generally there is a slight difference in that you normally need something to insure - i.e. you usually need to own a house/car in order to place a 'bet' that it will be damaged/destroyed within the next year

you can't just place a 'bet' that your neighbour's house will be burned down for example

but yeah an insurance company certainly shares similarities with a bookies - certainly in the case of Buffet - in fact in some of those instances it is just gambling, he is happy to underwrite long shots etc.. there have been a couple of instances where he's been the underwriter for some competition with a large prize - essentially the same as laying a huge long shot on betfair.
 
Last edited:
example of insurance being the same as gambling - Buffet underwriting a billion dollar accumulator bet

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2014/02/06/is-buffetts-ncaa-bet-a-good-deal-for-berkshire/

The holy grail of sports prognostication has had its game upped. The perfect NCAA tournament bracket is now worth a cool $1 billion, thanks to Quicken Loans and Warren Buffett. Announced last month, Quicken Loans will pay out $1 billion over 40 years for a perfect bracket. Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway agreed to insure this wager for an undisclosed premium.
Click to expand...
 
I did a horse earlier, arbitrage odds, if it won made me money, if it lost made me money.

So.... what exactly was I gambling there? How much of a gamble was it?

Most people would say taking a "gamble" has to have a chance of winning or losing.
 
dowie said:
nah it is still gambling

you're placing bets, you're gambling....



yeah - you're placing bets... which is an activity known as gambling



it involves some risk, you minimize that risk by hedging via an exchange, you'd be naive though to think there were no risks though
Click to expand...

If you are using that sense of gambling then yes we are all gambling by placing bets.

However, If I bet on A and lay A and know my profit/margins before the event then its not much of a risk.
 
if you do matched betting right at worst you lose a few pence maybe even a pound in the short term qualifying for a free bet or whatever
 
Russinating said:
How, if you never withdraw?
Click to expand...

For a bookie, cash = profit but your idea is flawed, statistically you're more likely to end up with your money in the bookie, not the exchange, so never withdrawing is not realistic. And, by continuously rolling over your money on arbs to try and get it to the exchange you're more likely to get your account reviewed and limited.

The bookie doesn't care that you have no intention of withdrawing, every time you arb them you are more likely to cost them money so you're going to get gubbed.

Things they don't like:

1) big single bets on value odds
2) bonus abusers

Combining 1 and 2 is a recipe for disaster.
 
You might want to check my original post. I'm not saying bookies don't gub people or won't gub me, I was just questioning why they cared.

Their end balance sheet will still be £50+ in £0 out no matter how many bonuses or arbs I do.
 
daniel_owen_uk said:
I did a horse earlier, arbitrage odds, if it won made me money, if it lost made me money.

So.... what exactly was I gambling there? How much of a gamble was it?

Most people would say taking a "gamble" has to have a chance of winning or losing.
Click to expand...

Most people would say that placing bets at a bookie is gambling...

As for what your risks are - there are two obvious ones in the case of arbitrage - execution risk (odds moving when you've only executed one leg) and counterparty risk... bookie not paying out (variety of reasons here from scummy bookie through to bad prices). There are also certain anomalies that can occur re: differences in rules between how two venues handle certain events that can leave you unhedged.
 
Brabbinho said:
If you are using that sense of gambling then yes we are all gambling by placing bets.

However, If I bet on A and lay A and know my profit/margins before the event then its not much of a risk.
Click to expand...

If I bet on Bolt during the 2012 Olymipics it isn't much of a risk either... it's still gambling.

Ditto to you structuring your bets to give you a positive expectation and/or reducing variance.
 
Russinating said:
You might want to check my original post. I'm not saying bookies don't gub people or won't gub me, I was just questioning why they cared.

Their end balance sheet will still be £50+ in £0 out no matter how many bonuses or arbs I do.
Click to expand...

You might find some will gub you before that occurs

It is a very strange and inefficient approach you seem to be taking... you're giving up a lot of value if you're seeking to always withdraw via betfair - especially if a lot of the bets you're placing at bookies are +ev
 
But the point of matched betting is you can't lose. I bet and lay a result for say £1 loss and then earn a free £10 bet. With a profit return of 70-80% on the freebet.

In the above example there is no risk. I know exactly what the outcome is regardless of whether the bet or lay wins.

In your Usain Bolt example you could lose if he's beaten. In matched betting its irrelevant as to whether your bookmaker bet or exchange lay win. You make profit either way.

In the more advanced refund/acca bets then yes there is risk to achieve long term value.
 
You're being naive if you think there is no risk. There is low risk and you're likely to win in the long run too. That doesn't stop it from being gambling. Placing +EV bets is still gambling whether you're an expert handicapper, someone exploiting an inefficiency on an exchange, a skilled poker player, blackjack card counter or just someone taking advantage of some free bet offers.
 
Made a **** up with a bet today, cost me £67 :(

Can see me getting the boot from Bet365 very soon, did the main £200 bonus and the £50 mobile one and cashed out £1.4k
 
dowie said:
You're being naive if you think there is no risk. There is low risk and you're likely to win in the long run too. That doesn't stop it from being gambling. Placing +EV bets is still gambling whether you're an expert handicapper, someone exploiting an inefficiency on an exchange, a skilled poker player, blackjack card counter or just someone taking advantage of some free bet offers.
Click to expand...

you can't lose unless you make a mistake, see above :p
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom