Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)

I mean you place a lay lower. It will blip and catch a 6.2 vs 6.4 for example. Then if that happens you can put the back stake on. happens a lot and no you couldn't trader it as the back is never above the 'lower' lay

I just use phone and laptop together
 
What you're saying is to simply place a limit order in the book and wait for a bit rather than cross the spread with a market order, which is fine.

FYI re: 'with a bit of experience you can work out when to give it a few mins' if you can predict when you're likely to be filled then that can form part of an edge from which you can trade but what your suggesting doesn't necessarily require you be able to do that.
 
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How are bet365 with gubbing? Now sure if I should bet on horses, especially foreign ones (UAE Derby has a good match for me atm). Can't risk my £200 sign up offer though.
 
H2F Scott said:
How are bet365 with gubbing? Now sure if I should bet on horses, especially foreign ones (UAE Derby has a good match for me atm). Can't risk my £200 sign up offer though.
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I'd stick to big Premier league games or big horse racing festivals (Cheltenham would have been perfect) when doing the sign up offer.
 
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Em3bbs said:
Oh are you a student? You haven't mentioned before. Thanks for letting us know it's a student account, it makes all the difference.
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I think it's someone's time of the month.

Go pop your heat cushion in the microwave - it'll make you feel better sweetheart.
 
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amigafan2003 said:
I'd stick to big Premier league games or big horse racing festivals (Cheltenham would have been perfect) when doing the sign up offer.
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International friendlies are fine too right? Since they're taking over the premier league this week aren't they?

It's just annoying because I can't find any good matches and I've still got £500 to wager before I can release the £1000 tied up in bet365.
 
H2F Scott said:
International friendlies are fine too right? Since they're taking over the premier league this week aren't they?
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Yeah, they should be ok.

It's just annoying because I can't find any good matches and I've still got £500 to wager before I can release the £1000 tied up in bet365.
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I know what you mean. Are you picking high odds matches? I've never had to wager through on the B365 offer and I've done it 8 times now. In fact, on three of them I've lost both the quali bet and bonus straight into Betfair.
 
The first bonus bet I took a 3.2 match. I was hoping it'd lose at the bookies, but alas every single one of my 5 bets have won at bet365 so far. I can't wait to end this offer.

Should've stuck with 1.5-1.9 matches, but oh well.
 
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H2F Scott said:
The first bonus bet I took a 3.2 match. I was hoping it'd lose at the bookies, but alas every single one of my 5 bets have won at bet365 so far. I can't wait to end this offer.

Should've stuck with 1.5-1.9 matches, but oh well.
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I try and find matches around 6-8 - easier to lose it into the exchange then. Although you do need a big balance at the exchange to do this - but it's the quickest way to do the B365 offer.
 
Tosno said:
And if it wins, how deep will his hole be? I've had lots of 6+ winners.
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exactly... if you're able to pick matches consistently that leave you in profit at the exchange then you don't even need matched betting, you've got an exploitable edge you can use to make much more money

though in reality with matched betting you tend to be in a position where you'd be losing on both sides of the bets you place in the long run ergo you'll likely end up with negative exchange balances and positive balances at bookies only thanks to the free bets
 
Think PA should explain unmatched bets sooner, had an unmatched bet. So went searching for a tutorial explaining it. All fixed now, but anyone starting out. Watch that video first.

New odds dropped my profit by £2 but at least it's matched. Only my second offer, as had to wait 24 hours for the free bet to activate.
 
dowie said:
exactly... if you're able to pick matches consistently that leave you in profit at the exchange then you don't even need matched betting, you've got an exploitable edge you can use to make much more money

though in reality with matched betting you tend to be in a position where you'd be losing on both sides of the bets you place in the long run ergo you'll likely end up with negative exchange balances and positive balances at bookies only thanks to the free bets
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I've just looked through my betting history:-

60% of my quali bets win at the exchange and 80% of my free bets win at the exchange.

I very rarely draw any money out of bookies - nearly all my withdrawals come from the exchange and I've never had to top my exchange balance up. Profit wise, £2k has gone through the bookies and £8k through the exhange
 
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Irrelevant to what I've posted and again you don't seem to have understood the point. If you're picking long odds then you obviously should win more frequently at the exchange however when you win at a bookie it will be a rather big win. In the long run you should still lose money at the exchange even if the payoffs look like 6 or 7 small wins for ever big loss. If you've devised some system for picking bets that gives you an edge such that you can win at the exchange then you don't need match betting. These are simple concepts to understand and yet as with the point that laying bets costs money in return for eliminating variance and you'd have a better EV by not laying it seems you don't quite get it.
 
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He means(pretty sure anyway) placing a bet that wins regardless,. It just takes a lot of capital.
At the moment this bet could be placed.

Stake £59
Back odds 13

Lay odds 11
Lay £69.85
Liability £698.50
Commission 2%

Out come
Back £9.50
Lay £9.45

So no need for free stakes.

Most if them seem to only make £2 or so due to the low matched amount you can lay. But seems to be many dozens per day, so if you have say an 8k account balance, it's a way to get returns without waiting for reloads and other offers.

I might be totally wrong as this is only day 3 for me.
 
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amigafan, I just saw this in the bet365 terms:

"Bets placed on Asian Handicap and Goal Line markets, both pre-match and In-Play will not count towards the turnover requirement stated in condition 4."

Half my bets on there are over/under bets (that's what goal line markets are right?) and it says they've counted towards the requirement. Should I be worried?
 
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Glaucus said:
He means(pretty sure anyway) placing a bet that wins regardless,. It just takes a lot of capital.
At the moment this bet could be placed.
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you're talking about arbitrage, though in general the inefficiencies exploited through arbitrage are more likely to be the result of a bookie's prices being off rather than a public exchange's prices being off ergo the edge is usually from exploiting the bookie not the exchange

I'm making a more general point that if, in the long run, you're able to (through some system of selecting bets) end up with a positive balance in your exchange account then you would appear to have a system that gives you a positive expected value for those bets ergo you don't need matched betting.

Consider them in isolation, you're laying a bunch of bets on the exchange, in general you should be losing from these else there is a massive inefficiency on betfair whereby any mug punter can gain an edge simply by dumb laying or you've carefully selected those lay bets and in doing so have discovered a system that gives you +EV - in either case you wouldn't need matched betting in order to make money.

In reality dumb laying shouldn't make you money and your lay bets at the exchange should be slightly -EV (else you'd not need matched betting) and your bets at the bookies would also otherwise be -EV if not for the free bet. It is the free bet that gives you the value and makes this whole thing work, laying is a simply cost you pay to reduce variance.
 
H2F Scott said:
amigafan, I just saw this in the bet365 terms:

"Bets placed on Asian Handicap and Goal Line markets, both pre-match and In-Play will not count towards the turnover requirement stated in condition 4."

Half my bets on there are over/under bets (that's what goal line markets are right?) and it says they've counted towards the requirement. Should I be worried?
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Goal line are over 2.0 with refund if 2. Over2.5 count
 
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