Mortgage Rate Rises

It's often born out of desperation though, and whilst I'd never do it myself I can fully understand why many do.
If you buy at the right time this tactic pays off big time and your wealth is amplified. Wrong time and you might become homeless. It's rough. Personally I regret borrowing to what was sensible on my current income and wish I'd stretched a bit more and taken a bigger bet on career growth and inflation. As always, hindsight is 20/20 and at least I now have a very affordable mortgage.
 
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I know it seems to be an unpopular opinion here, but personally I think that the data suggests that a not insignificant correction has already begun. The lag in reporting is an easy 9-12 months in reality.

I think the next 2 years will surprise a fair few people.
Hasn’t happened local to me, sales are still being agreed right at the same ridiculous prices. Same thing happened in 2008 prices just stopped rising for a couple of years. If anything my local market is still trickling up due to a lack of houses on the market.
 
I think it's worth bearing in mind that rents are going up a lot at the moment as well, so sitting tight in rented and waiting for the market to drop isn't nesercerily the most attractive option now that new mortgage products are cropping up for low deposit first time buyers.

I saw an ad for my old flat in west London about a month ago, it was 1600pcm when I rented it 4 years ago, it's 2250pcm now
 
I think it's worth bearing in mind that rents are going up a lot at the moment as well, so sitting tight in rented and waiting for the market to drop isn't nesercerily the most attractive option now that new mortgage products are cropping up for low deposit first time buyers.

I saw an ad for my old flat in west London about a month ago, it was 1600pcm when I rented it 4 years ago, it's 2250pcm now

Yeah. Every month in rent you could burn 1000 a month on modest home.
1000 on a mortgage is only going to burn 300-400 (on interest). So waiting for prices to fall (and they might barely change) is a risky game.
 
10 year fix is a long time and very costly.
I fixed for 30 years at 2.5%, and have no intention of paying it back any sooner than I need to. It's a very cheap mortgage and my wife and I can very early afford the payments. We could put any overpayments into a high yield savings account and make nearly double the mortgage interest rate while keeping the cash liquid.
Some areas maybe, but UK is still an easy market for Americans.
What do you mean by this?
 
Hasn’t happened local to me, sales are still being agreed right at the same ridiculous prices. Same thing happened in 2008 prices just stopped rising for a couple of years. If anything my local market is still trickling up due to a lack of houses on the market.

All regions will vary dramatically of course, and very good properties will always sell, even throughout significant downturns.

But out of interest, can I ask what region you're referring to and what data you’ve based this upon? I would be genuinely interested to know.

All of the data that I’ve seen from the large indexes that track actual transaction prices seem to be showing varying levels of small decrease, depending upon the region, pretty much across the board over the last 3-6 months.

Given that the effects of the recent rises to interest rates will only really start feeding in to the data over the next few quarters, I genuinely would be interested to understand why so many people think it’s going to be any different this time to previous similar situations historically.

In general, my view is that I wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing a near total unwinding of the Covid bubble, slowly over the next 2-3 years, possibly a bit more peak to trough if we actually do hit 6% rates; with the worst effected properties being the ones that gained the most over the last three years. Which incidentally, pretty much aligns with the kind of potential house price decline range predicted by the BOE's 6% interest rate stress test that they conducted last year.

Just in case anyone is interested:

 
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What do you mean by this?

I suspect that @dLockers is hinting at the one caveat I do have to my opinion on this topic, namely that wealthy cash buyers could potentially swoop in to snap up bargains as any downturn really gets going, which would ultimately have the effect of buoying house prices during a time when domestic demand has dramatically cooled due to affordability.

Just my guess…
 
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British house prices edged down in May and the country's housing market faces headwinds in the months ahead after a recent jump in borrowing costs, mortgage lender Nationwide said on Thursday.

Nationwide's measure of house prices fell by 0.1% in May from April after a monthly 0.4% rise in April.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected prices to rise by 0.1% in month-on-month terms.

Compared with May last year, the average house price was down 3.4% after a 2.7% annual fall in April, Nationwide said.

I think Nationwide HPI is based on mortgages only, it excludes cash buyers.
 
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What do you mean by this?
At least 2 of friends who are cashing out and moving up North are selling to Americans. They earn more, have more disposable income and are looking to snap up bargains.

The UK market will continue to grow as supply is going to get even worse (negative equity, people can't afford to move due to stamp duty).
 
It’s 2025, post war Britain is a grim place. Your bank’s head office was destroyed in The Blast. You’ve built yourself a lovely mud hut. Enjoy.

You have been warned about this by the temporal enforcement committee. Things need to play out as they have always done. If you don't remove your post you will be kicked off your assignment.
 
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I fixed for 30 years at 2.5%, and have no intention of paying it back any sooner than I need to. It's a very cheap mortgage and my wife and I can very early afford the payments. We could put any overpayments into a high yield savings account and make nearly double the mortgage interest rate while keeping the cash liquid.

What do you mean by this?
So many things can happen in that time, that could make you hit your savings. But then again it is your choice, for the average person savings to equalise mortgage interest takes a long time.
My mate dads brother did something like that ended up losing all his savings when he became sick, he couldn't get any government assistance for a very long time I was told.
 
10 years is a long time. Pay off a lump sum when fix rate ends reduces long term costs, that including any any fees v interest.
It is a long time, but again you don't know his circumstances - what if he'd fixed for 10 years at 1%? That's a better position to be in than having to negotiate a deal now, also with the option of over payments you're helping reduce that interest deficit. So I stand by my original statement - what an odd comment to make :rolleyes:
 
Those that are expecting a massive drop in house prices need to look at the data. The average price drop at it's worst during 2009 was around 17-18%. Even if that happens tomorrow you are still looking at house prices above or similar to 2020, which is still unaffordable for a majority of 1st time buyers.
 
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Those that are expecting a massive drop in house prices need to look at the data. The average price drop at it's worst during 2009 was around 17-18%. Even if that happens tomorrow you are still looking at house prices above or similar to 2020, which is still unaffordable for a majority of 1st time buyers.

Yes even a moderate drop isn't going to suddenly see fire sales of houses, people will just turtle up and not sell, await the recovery.
 
Those that are expecting a massive drop in house prices need to look at the data. The average price drop at it's worst during 2009 was around 17-18%. Even if that happens tomorrow you are still looking at house prices above or similar to 2020, which is still unaffordable for a majority of 1st time buyers.

I don't think anyone at all is expecting house prices to drop down to hugely affordable levels for 1st time buyers.

The kind of correction that some people, including myself think is likely, would be similar to most historic ones.
 
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Those that are expecting a massive drop in house prices need to look at the data. The average price drop at it's worst during 2009 was around 17-18%. Even if that happens tomorrow you are still looking at house prices above or similar to 2020, which is still unaffordable for a majority of 1st time buyers.

There would come a point quite quickly that buyers start snapping stuff up.
Both investors and FTBs.
During covid I expected a drop. It didn't come. Like you said. Even a 20pc drop would only put a relative few people negative now. Those that have bought post covid.

I'd have no issue myself. With a 10pc drop or even more. Want to move in couple of years and anything that puts a new house closer to current is a bonus
 
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All regions will vary dramatically of course, and very good properties will always sell, even throughout significant downturns.

But out of interest, can I ask what region you're referring to and what data you’ve based this upon? I would be genuinely interested to know.

All of the data that I’ve seen from the large indexes that track actual transaction prices seem to be showing varying levels of small decrease, depending upon the region, pretty much across the board over the last 3-6 months.

Given that the effects of the recent rises to interest rates will only really start feeding in to the data over the next few quarters, I genuinely would be interested to understand why so many people think it’s going to be any different this time to previous similar situations historically.

In general, my view is that I wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing a near total unwinding of the Covid bubble, slowly over the next 2-3 years, possibly a bit more peak to trough if we actually do hit 6% rates; with the worst effected properties being the ones that gained the most over the last three years. Which incidentally, pretty much aligns with the kind of potential house price decline range predicted by the BOE's 6% interest rate stress test that they conducted last year.

Just in case anyone is interested:

Localised area of Sheffield and the data is actual agreed sale prices that are in the process of completing (I know a few people including myself in the process of selling) we were not expecting to get anything like the level of interest or volume/level of offers we got given all the talk of house price falls which I think probably played into our hands as people are afraid of selling at the minute which is reducing supply and hence maintaining demand/prices.
 
It's a shame as I've tried to help friends and colleagues out last summer/autumn, they were concerned about the increasing rates and wanted to know what they can do? This is what I suggested to them:

1. Sell their current car (worth £10k+)
2. Buy a cheap banger (they all live locally, commute is less than 10 miles)
3. Pay the exit fee, fix for 5 years at around 2.25-2.5%

Unfortunately none of them were interested in parting with their cars and laughed off my suggestion, however they are now in a position where they are planning to sell up and move back in with parents or they're trying to find extra work. It's not nice to see friends/colleagues being stressed out and losing sleep over interest rates :(
 
There would come a point quite quickly that buyers start snapping stuff up.
Both investors and FTBs.
During covid I expected a drop. It didn't come. Like you said. Even a 20pc drop would only put a relative few people negative now. Those that have bought post covid.

I'd have no issue myself. With a 10pc drop or even more. Want to move in couple of years and anything that puts a new house closer to current is a bonus
COVID should have seen a drop but the governments ridiculously short sighted stamp duty cuts turned the heat up massively under the market, nobody saved any money as prices just jumped by the amount of the reduction in Tax in fact I'd say the Tax man was by far the biggest looser from that broken policy! The government still hasn't done the one thing I would like to see with stamp duty which is reduce it massively for older people downsizing as this could potentially free up a lot of larger family homes, I know loads of older people who won't even consider moving as they would have to give the government a massive chunk of tax.
 
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