Caporegime
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Israel have a very right wing government at the moment, more so than any other time I can remember.
Multiple explosions across Iran hitting weapons factories, oil refineries and possibly some individuals (news still catching up so title may change).
- Thread starter ianh
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They already have. Hence, Israel taking direct action.
Iran is a tyrannical regime, so most are fine with anything that damages them, including the Iranian people themselves who are suffering
I guess I didn't phrase that very well. Obviously Iran has few allies in the Middle East, but Iran itself is a powerful military actor in the region, but it seems that Israel's repeated attacks on Iran go largely unanswered - at least with direct action.
I don't think this is related to Ukraine. I think it's more about the huge success of the Iranian drones have had on Ukraine.Hi All,
I was up late this morning and at around 2am-4am the first reports and social media posts with video started to roll in of what, from the few videos I've seen, are very definitely "high explosive" explosions on the roof of several buildings claimed to be drone manufacturers dotted around Iran and the Iranian Republican Guard has acknowledged this but claim that this "attack" (their words) was a failure. So far there's been little Western Media reporting but the story is picking up pace this morning.
Here's what we have so far -
Iran Claims It Has Come Under Drone Attack Following Explosions
The Iranian Ministry of Defense claims drones struck a facility in Isfahan as reports of blasts in other cities cause alarm.www.thedrive.com
Israeli drone attack on Iranian weapons factory was phenomenal success - sources
The Islamic Republic claimed that the drone attack had failed and only cause minor roof damage.www.jpost.com
Iranian News confirming the explosions
Iran Air Defense Repels Drone Attack on Military Site - Politics news - Tasnim News Agency
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – The Iranian air defense forces repelled a drone strike on a military workshop in the central city of Isfahan on Saturday night, the Defense Ministry said.www.tasnimnews.com
Footage of the one of the alleged Drone strikes taken moments after one explosion (see the smoke in the air,) and filming another impact -
and an oil refinery in Northern Iran also "hit" at the same time -
and then some unverified SM posts saying individuals have also been attacked but not way to confirm this info so could be fake -
I realise its Sunday so most "Western" Media will be slow to get confirmations before doing a full reporting but so far virtually everything being reported seems to be factual so far which makes this a very interesting weekend. The usual suspects (Israel, US) will be blamed for this but I'm more interested in the particular reasoning for such a hugely visible act of aggression vs the more "restrained" actions that have previously occurred inside Iran, usually targetted at specific individuals with very small/limited firepower rather than this extremely overt act.
Is it US retaliation for them sending Drones to Russia for use in Ukraine?
Is it a US warning not to send anything else to Russia?
Is it Israeli retaliation for attacks in Israel which have left 7 dead this week?
Is it Saudi retaliation for supporting Yemen & earlier Refinery attacks?
etc etc
I don't know what reasoning is being given internally as to who/why this was carried out but it's certainly a huge story at a very tough point in Global relations right now with the potential to escalate rapidly.
Israel would be worried that these drones could be hitting Tel Aviv.
I think its more about the Iranian threat to Israel rather than helping Ukraine.
helping ukraine is just a side affect of Israel not wanting iran to have drones as succecful.
As well as that they would also be worried about what Russia will trade with Iran for their continued help.
For Israel it's about self preservation, where there's Israel there is always the USA, they will be providing most of the intelligence and targets on this, not that they need much help but the US satellites will be working overtime.
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Soldato
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The Israelis and the Saudis have been working together for years and both see Iran as a rogue state. The Saudis will be keeping Tel Aviv apprised of what action the Gulf Co-operation Council will tolerate.
Personally, I don’t imagine that any other the GCC members want the Iranians having lots of drones and especially don’t want them to get any weapons technology or materials from Russia.
Personally, I don’t imagine that any other the GCC members want the Iranians having lots of drones and especially don’t want them to get any weapons technology or materials from Russia.
Yeah things have been rosey up until now
Soldato
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Also, the Iranian people are Persians, not Arabs.
The problem for Iran is how to respond in any meaningful way that does not risk damaging and/or enraging neighbouring countries.
Israel has hit Iran with a pinpoint drone strike. Considering the distance between Iran and Israel is ~1,000km, this means she has either secretly infiltrated a bordering country and launched the drones from there, or established a military base in a friendly nation close enough to reach Iran.
What is Iran supposed to respond with, and how? She has warheads with a range of 2,000km, but that would be massive overkill. Could she use her own drones? Perhaps, but she'd have to get close like Israel did, and I don't think she has any countries near Israel that would happily accommodate an Iranian military presence, so it's more likely that she'll try her usual tactic of attacking Israel through a proxy (e.g. Hezbollah).
^^ This. The Egyptians aren't Arabs either.
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Soldato
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Iran has fairly friendly relations with Syria, which borders Israel. However, i'm doubtful whether Syria would invite a stomping from Israel and the US.
It's turning into whack a mole week- the US launched a hefty raid within Somalia at the weekend.
Er, no. Israel is very much not a puppet state of the West. She spends most of her time infuriating the West by committing acts of terrorism against the Palestinians, breaking international laws all over the place, and conducting clandestine military operations against her neighbours.
Israel is tolerated by the West because she's our strongest ally in the Middle East, and the only genuine democracy in the region. We need a foothold, and Israel is it. If we had a better option than Israel, we'd be playing ball with them instead.
Fair point about Syria. There's also the problem of an ongoing civil war, which doesn't make life any easier for Iran.
lols, yeah sure pal.
I'm not sure you actually know what a puppet state is.
I'd actually argue that the US is to some extents a puppet of Israel. The power of the israeli/Jewish lobby in the states is crazy. Additionally, as you've said, Israel literally get away with murder.
Soldato
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Pretty much. They've always had free reign because the US will back them no matter what, they may get a bit annoyed at their behaviour at times but it'll pass and any move to condemn by the UN security council is always blocked by the US and there have been plenty of occasions.
Yep they're doing it for their own reasons any help for ukraine will be coincidental. And Mossad is more than capable of gathering its own intelligence.
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Caporegime
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What's Israel's position on Ukraine even been? I don't think they came out that strongly against Russia in the first place.
Which is ironic as Russia was falsely calling Ukraine Nazis and invading their lands.
Which is ironic as Russia was falsely calling Ukraine Nazis and invading their lands.
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