WWIII - America, UK, UN, EU, Australia vs North Korea, shortest WW ever and we get a new series of games to play based on it.
North Korea threatens US with a pre-emptive nuclear strike.
- Thread starter illuz
- Start date
WWIII - America, UK, UN, EU, Australia vs North Korea, shortest WW ever and we get a new series of games to play based on it.
Say it once and i'll say it again. China are a completely different animal then it was even 10 years ago. It's become more Westernised then you think.
China aren't very supportive of NK anymore didn't they recently vote in favour of sanctions?
Soldato
Armed conflict with the US would be economic suicide for both sides. It simply will not happen.
If the US acts against China's wishes, then there will be serious consequences for their relations - China may effectively impose unilateral economic sanctions on the US (ban certain exports etc), but that is a far as it would go. Even that would be a drastic measure with dramatic consequences for both sides.
In reality, whatever action is taken by the US will be discussed behind the scenes with China beforehand. If conflict is inevitable, China's main concern is maintaining a "buffer zone" between China and South Korea. It is overwhelmingly likely that China would take some sort of administrative role in post-war North Korea.
Man of Honour
I wonder if China would prefer a unified Korea with SK style government rather than a belligerent north ?
Don
I think if NK do attack SK or any US bases China will step in, but not in the way that people might imagine.
I think China would tell the US and SK to not retaliate and would invade NK themselves, remove the current government and annex it as part of China.
I think China would tell the US and SK to not retaliate and would invade NK themselves, remove the current government and annex it as part of China.
fixed?
Soldato
I suspect that China would like a "East / West Germany" type approach, albeit with far better communication across the boarder. China will develop the North into a manufacturing-based economy, supplying the South (and other Western nations) with cheap imports. A similar model to the China of the 80s and 90s, with the goal of a similar growth curve.
That would be an interesting move, not sure I could see it happening though.
Soldato
If China had a larger military force, then perhaps. As it is I think they will be content to let the US and the South carry most of the military burden, and use their political clout to make sure that they gain ultimate control over the country post war.
I think China's role will be "peacekeeping" rather than the initial military offensive. In this way they get the best of both worlds.
Soldato
Aren't China bound by treaty to defend North Korea though?
If so, perhaps they would do so on North Korean soil but not much else?
Soldato
Yes - they are bound by the "Treaty of Friendship, Co-operation and Mutual Assistance" (see a rundown of the text here).
Officially, yes, this document obliges China and North Korea to come to each others aid in the event of an outside military threat (see Article II).
... However, this document was signed in 1967. Back then China was nowhere near as important globally as they are now. I can't conceive a situation where China would let its position as a 21st century superpower come under threat to uphold a 45 year old treaty with a neighbour who is increasingly acting against their best interests. And make no mistake, opposing the US militarily in any way would be a massive threat to all the progress they have made in the past decade. China does not want another cold war - they are far too integrated into the international economy.
You're right though. To save face, China may be forced to 'render assistance' to NK. They could do this in many ways, for example, aid drops. The US would certainly be dropping food aid to the civilian population from the outbreak of war (...hearts and minds), so this would be a a good way for China to appear to be respecting their treaty, without getting the in the way of the US.
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Soldato
Similar to how the US is bound to defend Japan.
China does not want the US on it's doorstep that's a fact.
There are issues regarding disputed Islands with Japan, and with Taiwan.
Last year there a number of reports of China war gaming against the US
http://www.businessinsider.com/chin...-disputed-islands-east-china-sea-japan-2013-1
China does not want the US on it's doorstep that's a fact.
There are issues regarding disputed Islands with Japan, and with Taiwan.
Last year there a number of reports of China war gaming against the US
http://www.businessinsider.com/chin...-disputed-islands-east-china-sea-japan-2013-1
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That would be my guess of what would happen, there is no way china would allow a us controlled government to share a border with china
Soldato
Wonder why it is America always in confrontation with countries all over the world, pointing fingers and issuing blame.
As the saying goes when you point your finger at somebody else, four fingers are pointing back at you.
As the saying goes when you point your finger at somebody else, four fingers are pointing back at you.
Man of Honour
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Whilst this is usually the case, I think you need to read the thread title.
So let me get this right you agree that China would attack North Korea and annex it to effectively make it part of China to prevent a US controlled country from having a border with China? So you propose they would extend their border by annexation to border .... South Korea. Now you'll have to excuse me but I think I've just found a big flaw in that.
Soldato
China will not annex North Korea directly into its territory. However it may set up a "friendly" government which is reliant on China for its stability in all major ways (economically, militarily, and politically). In this way it will work as an effective buffer, in much the same way that North Korea works now.
This is far from an ideal situation for the US, but if North Korea continues its military threats against the US and South Korea, then the US may begin to see it as a preferable to letting North Korea continue on its current path.
I still think China's path to this outcome would be through peacekeeping and post-war administration. They simply do not have the military might to quickly break the North Korean war machine, in the way that the US does. China has a lot of traditional army ground power, but they cannot even come close to the US in terms of air and naval forces.