North Korea
- Thread starter terley
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They can be, but do not necessarily have to be.
Most of NK's tests have been in the 10Kt range. even the claimed "Hydrogen Bomb".
This is a low yield, even for a basic fission bomb. One such test result might be considered a dud. Multiple tests in this range suggests a policy.
However 10Kt for a "Hydrogen" bomb it right on the money for a Neutron Bomb. I have always reckoned (Right from their first test, shortly after they officially withdrew from the NPT, which they were fully entitled to do. so their program is not in any way "Illegal") that NK is developing this tech for defensive purposes. If the South/USA invades. They will face the risk of being Nuked.
This would cause severe damage to the attacking forces. both materially and from a morale POV. However. It would be politically difficult/impossible for the USA to escalate/retaliate in kind. because NK will have used Nukes on its own territory in a purely defensive manner rather than offensively.
The ICBM developments are purely "MAD" defensive (They would never launch a first strike on USA or anybody else)
Either that, or they have something Non-Nuclear in mind. which I believe is really quite likly
(We need satellite technology more than NK does and there is a very very easy way of destroying satellites permanently in a manner that will make them impossible to replace, especially in the GS orbit which is particularly vulnerable)
All you need is the rockets that can reach them, again it would be something that would be very difficult to respond too.
Bring it on. America will annihilate NK if they try anything. What NK needs to do is open up and sit down and engage in diplomacy in order to iron out the problems between them and the West. I don't see NK as a legitimate threat to the world currently, more like a an itch on your foot. If they launched a nuclear weapon anywhere they would be annihilated and they know this. This whole stand off is nothing more than bluster. All we need to end this nonsense is for China to get onboard and denounce NK.
Yeah we have to demonstrate that we are able to hit them back, and also drills and tests are the only way to ensure that we are prepared and able to do that should the time arise.
I think they realise that already
hence why they are developing them in the first place...I think they realise that already
Quite.
I certainly do see why NK has gone down the nuclear route - it's pretty much their only guarantee of safety.
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First atomic bomb test for the US was 1945, and the USSR was 1949
The first Thermonuclear bomb test for the US was 1952, and the USSR was in 1955
A thermonuclear bomb is using most of its energy from Fusion, however to start the fusion reaction you need to first detonate a fission bomb, thus compressing the fusion fuel to the point that it fuses together, releasing energy.
North Korea shows it can make fission bombs, given time they will have a thermonuclear bomb ready, the US took 7 years and the Russians 6 years, The physics were new at this point, i.e. castle bravo (1954) was supposed to be 5MT, but the actual yeild was 15MT
I think i'll make a bet for December 26 2023 anyone give me some odds?
NK is the absolute quandary. The astronomical count of civilian casualties and the likelihood of a nuclear detonation on the peninsula moots any act of bravado from any yellow haired clown. The Chinese have owned NK for decades. They now need to manage them or more brutally, directly bound them.
Lol, they don't "need" to do anything, the Chinese aren't dumb and will do whatever they think is best for China, nothing else... the US should just invade and play the only game they know how, destroying ****.
Lol a tomahawk launched from where? South Korea?
It'd be shot down well before it even got to his abode, they arent infallible devices.
Even the hint of a US led invasion should prompt the Chinese to step in. I quite agree that the Chinese do whatever they think is best for China; however, the mere hint of a consolidated westernised Korea would not form in any part in those thoughts.
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NK don't need to win a war against america, they only need 1 bomb (nuclear or not) to go off in california and that's a win in many persons view, small country hits super power undermines their credibility as the "world leader" (despite being anything but)
It would be a win for a few hours, then NK would know longer exist on a map
These days a good number of the "elite" in Pyongyang have reasonably nice cars they also take protection of the leader very seriously, I suspect including decoys, etc. as they are paranoid about assassination attempts, etc. I mean they literally execute anyone who potentially could be lined up to replace him at the slightest hint an external power might try to do that.
Pyongyang itself has massive dense air defences even if antiquated, so potentially quantity and volume of fire could do what they lack in sophistication and their long range radar is surprisingly capable - its based on the same upgraded platform that has had limited success detecting F-117s, etc.
I'm fairly sure nothing with deter them from pursuing a long term goal of a significant nuclear deterrent - IMO they've been benefiting from technology exchanges from Iran which has helped with the perfection of their long range missile capibilities and potentially will aid them in developing full blown nuclear capabilities sooner rather than later - I'll be surprised if they don't demonstrate something a lot more advanced than people suspect by the end of the year.
I'm not so sure - I think that is injecting much more of a Western perspective than might exist within the overall top chain of command in NK. While I agree with the experts who consider that the development of nuclear weapons is in pursuit of a somewhat fantasy goal of being able to hold off the West while retaking the whole peninsula I'm not sure we should underestimate the perspective of their top brass who generally have been more isolated from the shift most other countries have gone through in the last few decades and IMO much more like that of WW2 era where they were much more likely to use WMDs.
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What if Mr Trump started cosying up to, and 'befriending' Kim? Start peace talks, offer concessions aid and so on. How would China react to this? Would the possibility of good relations between NK and USA cause China to act?
AFAIK NK are opposed to anything other than the US going away and allowing complete reunification - they'll accept a certain amount of aid, etc. (which Kim plays off to his people I believe as the US paying tribute to him) but it won't change anything.
I think the opposing ideologies would prevent the two from ever cosying up. Although I have a feeling if it did and somehow affected the power balance or trade for China, something would be said.