Really? FS2020 has already been tested as using 12.5GB+ VRAM at 4k Ultra settings...
But anyway, great to know that you can predict the future with 0% accuracy.
A few things. The flight sim games (arguably not really even games) have a long established history of titles launching with extremely high graphics settings relative to peers at the time, essentially for future proofing. So this is very much something that stands out of the pack, it's an exception and not the norm. Businesses generally speaking do not make products lines that conform to extremely rare exceptions that stand out of the pack, they make them for what the average consumer (at that price point) will need.
It's also worth noting that you can't endlessly throw assets into vRAM that are used by the GPU without some performance impact, if you're adding more assets in vRAM is generally speaking means more work for the GPU processing those assets and that means lower frame rates. And so generally speaking there's a ceiling on useful amounts of vRAM at the point where the GPU is not producing playable frame rates. And FS2020@4k Ultra has completely unplayable frame rates even on the absolute best possible cards today, Titan RTX has a 99th min of about 28fps
So 3GB cards are all we need, basically
You mentioned consoles. We've had 8 GB PC GPUs since before 2015, during the last console gen, and we've seen PC games knocking on the door of even the 11GB cards. Esp with mods.
Now, as you mention the console VRAM (and horsepower in general) is about to take a *massive* leap.
But you can see no reason why PC GPUs with 8 GB VRAM shouldn't be fine for the next 12-18 months.. despite all the new games being targeted at a much higher console spec (PS5/XSX will be the lead platforms, the PS4/XBone versions will be super gimped).
Anyway Jensen, us consumers will make up our own minds, thanks. For me and others here, <12 GB VRAM = no sale.
Well obviously no, see my response above. Typically you pick an amount of vRAM on your product which is sufficient to service the GPU. There's a relationship between vRAM size and GPU performance, if you're putting assets into vRAM you're doing it so the GPU can do work on it. The bigger the vRAM the higher quality and the more assets, the more work the GPU has to do and so the lower the frame rate, until eventually the frame rate bottoms out at unplayable and vRAM above that amount is basically pointless.
We know the specs of the next gen consoles the PS5 has 16Gb of shared RAM, which we can reasonably expect most games will use about 6-8Gb between the engine and the OS, on non-visual assets. Leaving less than 8-10Gb of RAM for the GPU to use. Not only that the GPUs in the next gen consoles are kinda meh, middle of the road by PC standards so again whether they can actually make use of 10Gb of assets with a usable frame rate, almost certainly not.
In the real world, we've seen what happens when you hit the VRAM limit. Engine design theorycraft or not.
Having 8 GB VRAM (in 2020 still, like back in 2015) when the consoles are about to make one of the biggest generational leaps every, is really asking for trouble.
Additionally there's no reason to settle for less. nVidia is just being super cheap. Expecting people to pay through the *** and giving the bare minimum VRAM in return.
Not going to fly. £600 with 8GB is not going to fly. £800+ with 10 GB is not going to fly.
It's not theorycraft, if you know anything about how modern engines work there's a lot of tools and optimization that goes into managing assets in the pipeline from disk to GPU. Streaming assets from disk is extremely common. The vRAM only really matters for what you immediately need right next to you that you're rendering at high resolution, that's where the limits matter most.
There is a reason to settle for less, because vRAM is expensive and drives up the costs of cards, which are already very expensive given the level of complaining about leaked prices we've already seen. They're not going to drive up the cost of cards if there's next to no benefit from doing so. It might not "fly" for you but it's fine for most other people and they're making a bet that the loss in sales to people who want more vRAM would be dwarfed by a more general loss in sales if the cards were too expensive. This is why, as I said above, they're a business they're after profit, you can't make everyone happy you just go with whatever averages out best for you.
Bare minimum RAM is the best amount of RAM. RAM is only useful if it's being used, having unused RAM is a waste of money and does nothing for performance.