This is an assumption on shaky grounds, 'people (that) didn't bother upgrading last year because...' only respresents a particular fraction of the market (could be 10, 20, 50%, but certainly not all).
Personally I know I'm not in the market for a GPU at all times of the year, and some years I have no desire to buy a GPU at all.
There are lots of reasons to want to buy a GPU that have nothing to do with FOMO or people losing their mind. The millions of people that bought GPUs in 2024, where nothing was going on, all had a reason, therefore it's not a stretch to assume a similar amount of people have similar ressons to buy a GPU in 2025.