Nvidia rumour to be launching new GTX 11 series without ray tracing

[Journey]

You should probably read the investors letter if you want to see how well they are covering up the bad performance.

https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/inter...219/files/20190/letter to shareholders-fd.pdf

They have not given an outlook for the following quarter, but I expect it to be significantly worse than they hoped.

 

[Flake87]

You should probably read the investors letter if you want to see how well they are covering up the bad performance.

https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/internal_redirect/cms.ipressroom.com.s3.amazonaws.com/219/files/20190/letter to shareholders-fd.pdf

They have not given an outlook for the following quarter, but I expect it to be significantly worse than they hoped.

They do certainly appear to be trying to minimise poor sales of RTX units, although they acknowledge high prices are an issue albeit launch prices they claim were higher than MSRP (unsure if this is true in the UK let alone worldwide). Hopefully it will spur them into producing something more affordable.

 

[Davedree]

Was thinking that myself earlier when i heard it, nvidia shares tanking then suddenly a load of wafers get damaged\destroyed.

Cough cough, Intel 14nm shortage,

 

[Gerard]

They do certainly appear to be trying to minimise poor sales of RTX units, although they acknowledge high prices are an issue albeit launch prices they claim were higher than MSRP (unsure if this is true in the UK let alone worldwide). Hopefully it will spur them into producing something more affordable.

You're unsure if this was the case in the UK? The cards were selling for £1400 minimum in most cases in the first few months. Even palit cards. Its only relatively recently they came down in price.

 

[yashiro]

The 'damaged wafers' thing seems a bit suspect.

 

[Flake87]

AMD new VII card has performance leaks which show it is faster that the RTX2080 which is certainly going to cause a struggling nVidia some headaches.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasone...s-rtx-2080-in-leaked-benchmarks/#177895745dad

 

[Kaapstad]

AMD new VII card has performance leaks which show it is faster that the RTX2080 which is certainly going to cause a struggling nVidia some headaches.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasone...s-rtx-2080-in-leaked-benchmarks/#177895745dad

The Time Spy score in the link is actually very poor and not even close to a 2070, this is worrying as it is a DX12 bench.

Even an overclocked 2060 can score more than 8500 on Time Spy.

Hopefully things will improve come launch time and better drivers.

 

[Flake87]

https://www.pcworld.com/article/333...nvidia-earnings-q4-2018-lower-gpu-prices.html

First article from a respected site which talks about lower GPU prices.

 

[Flake87]

3 Reasons Gamers Aren't Buying NVIDIA’s Newest GPUs

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/01/31/3-reasons-gamers-arent-buying-nvidias-newest-gpus.aspx

1. The world's top PC games don't require powerful GPUs
2. Gamers are postponing their upgrades
3. A lack of killer features

Odd that they don't find the RRP of these cards to be an issue, but it does seem to be case that a lack of games with RTX and no real need for users to buy more powerful cards could certainly be additional reasons.
Hopefully these kind of analytical reports will push nVidia into expanding its 11/16xx range higher up as the thread suggests ?

 

[D.P.]

https://www.pcworld.com/article/333...nvidia-earnings-q4-2018-lower-gpu-prices.html

First article from a respected site which talks about lower GPU prices.

But not about Nvidia specifically lowering prices of Turing, just the retail market is no longer whacking on a huge excess.

If Nvidia are really worried about Turing sales and believe price is the issue they will announce a reduction in RRP.


It is also not just Nvidia suffering from slower sales of mid-range cars, AMD seems to be having the same fate. So either Nvidia is telling the truth and there really is just a reduction in demand sue factors such lack of new games that really push GPUs, or AMD is also overpricing their GPUs and so turning away sales.



Now I;m not saying Turing prices are crazy high and i definitely think they are contributing a little to lower sales, but I don;t think that is the main reason. It is also easily rectified by Nvidia since Turing has very high margins.

There are liekly also factors that are partially with Nvidia, some people may well want to wait a few months to see a few more RTX enabled games released before buying for example.

IMO, both AMD and Nvidia will have a slow quarter but I think Q2 will pick up a lot. Nvidia will probably have a great 2019, AMD ill make great progress in CPUs while their GPU market will decline slowly until Navi is released Q3 and sales will only pick up slowly.

 

[kevman]

There are liekly also factors that are partially with Nvidia, some people may well want to wait a few months to see a few more RTX enabled games released before buying for example.

There is probably some of this going on but in a few months time many will start to think I may aswell wait for next gen as the card will be over 6 months old (i am in this boat)

 

[kevman]

1. The world's top PC games don't require powerful GPUs
2. Gamers are postponing their upgrades
3. A lack of killer features

number 2 on this list is not really a reason it is a symptom - if the cards were cheap enough and offer significant improvement people will buy - its not that difficult. Even if the games do not require lots of power most PC gamer enthusiasts like to have performance in reserve smashing games at max settings and high refresh rates.

 

[delvey]

3 Reasons Gamers Aren't Buying NVIDIA’s Newest GPUs

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/01/31/3-reasons-gamers-arent-buying-nvidias-newest-gpus.aspx

1. The world's top PC games don't require powerful GPUs
2. Gamers are postponing their upgrades
3. A lack of killer features

Odd that they don't find the RRP of these cards to be an issue, but it does seem to be case that a lack of games with RTX and no real need for users to buy more powerful cards could certainly be additional reasons.
Hopefully these kind of analytical reports will push nVidia into expanding its 11/16xx range higher up as the thread suggests ?

Nail on the head. I am still running a AMD 290x, contemplating upgrading to an RTX 2060 but at 1080p I am not going to really see a difference. I can still run most things on Ultra.
If Ray Tracing ran at 60 FPS with the card I would probably buy, but with it only running at 40 FPS and below it is not worth the performance drop

 

[esoteric]

It's all about price. Drop each card £100 and they'll fly off the shelves.

 

[rossiboy001]

It's all about price. Drop each card £100 and they'll fly off the shelves.

I will go four way SLI? if they do. But seriously if something like the flagship cards like Amp extreme or lightning were just under a grand then i would buy one.

 

[Flake87]

It's all about price. Drop each card £100 and they'll fly off the shelves.

nVidia appear to have a longstanding policy of not reducing GPU prices, but instead bundling them with other items for a discount price. This is why I think the only realistic alternative is a conventional line of new GPUs with the 116 core but without the DLSS and ray tracing. If they sold a 2080Ti equivalent at £800 I expect it would fly off the shelves.

 

[Flake87]

https://www.extremetech.com/gaming/...estimated-crypto-exposure-overpriced-rtx-gpus

It would seem that nVidia has been producing any midrange GPUs for some time now because of the glut it built up because it misread the crypto boom. It would also appear that they have not cleared that backlog hence the wait for the new cards, but there is also another accusation that nVidia overpriced the RTX range because it didn't read the crypto market correctly and thought post price gouging that these super high prices would fly. It seems it was a disastrous error on their part.

"Nvidia has already acknowledged that uptake for its new RTX GPU family has not been as strong as the company anticipated. In its earnings warning last week, the company informed investors that it expected revenue to be ~500M lower than previously communicated."

"Companies like AMD, Intel, and Nvidia model demand carefully. Stronger-than-expected demand across an entire product line can indicate that the GPUs in question are priced systemically too low. The implication of this scenario is that consumers were willing to pay more for GPUs than Nvidia actually charged them. This is known as a producer surplus.

Under this assumption, Nvidia was taking the economically prudent course of action. I don’t mean to imply that there were no technological reasons for the company to raise prices — its GPU dies were larger with Turing and GDDR6 is still more expensive than GDDR5. But Turing GPUs are more expensive, relative to Pascal, than what would expect if Nvidia were simply passing along costs. Nvidia may have believed that it had excellent reason to raise GPU prices whether AMD had competitive cards in-market or not."

I don't believe nVidia can drop the prices of the RTX cards, but what it can do to soften the blow of its falling profits and stock values is to produce a range of GTX cards without the ray tracing or DLSS which will likely sell in volume saving face and proping up revenue. RTX would remain as a flagship product for those prepared to pay its high cost. We will see mid month the new 1660 cards and I believe a 1670 will follow and perhaps a 1680 too.

 

[LePhuronn]

nVidia appear to have a longstanding policy of not reducing GPU prices, but instead bundling them with other items for a discount price. This is why I think the only realistic alternative is a conventional line of new GPUs with the 116 core but without the DLSS and ray tracing. If they sold a 2080Ti equivalent at £800 I expect it would fly off the shelves.

And in one swift stroke Nvidia render RTX utterly pointless, waste their R&D investment and expose their own greed. It's not going to happen.

 

[Flake87]

And in one swift stroke Nvidia render RTX utterly pointless, waste their R&D investment and expose their own greed. It's not going to happen.

No I don't believe that at all, there are hardly any games out there for RTX or DLSS although more are coming. Many comentators have suggested a second generation of RTX will be better, and that nVidia jumped the gun launching the RTX range when they did. It would not be rendering RTX pointless for those who wish to play those few games with ray tracing, and to some extent future proof a little.

As we have seen today though, if nVidia doesn't do something soon, more major share holders will pull their investments as they are already begining to. They have to do something to prop up the share price, RTX isn't selling, and they can't drop the price, they're between a rock and a hard place, and there are precious few solutions available. A new GTX range is one of those least unpalatable options.

 

[Wrinkly]

I'd much rather see the 7nm RTX cards than a cut down version of the 2080Ti without RT/Tensor cores. As far as I am concerned, the 20 series is lacking in performance.